Episode Summary
Executive Summary: The episode explores how COVID-19 may permanently alter everyday social rituals—especially handshaking—while also examining why uncertainty feels so overwhelming in the pandemic era. Angela Duckworth and Stephen Dubner argue that substitutes like salutes or bows may replace handshakes if they preserve trust and reciprocity, and they discuss broader behavioral changes, including forced social obligations. The second half explains uncertainty as both a practical and psychological challenge, distinguishing risk from true uncertainty and suggesting that scientists, while often seen as sources of certainty, are actually models of nuance and humility.
Main Topics: The future of handshakes after COVID-19 (Priority: 5/5): The hosts debate whether handshakes will disappear or decline permanently, arguing that the ritual is now associated with germ transmission and may be replaced by other greeting scripts. Alternative greetings and substitute rituals (Priority: 5/5): They consider bows, salutes, elbow pumps, rubber hands, and even symbolic gestures as possible replacements, focusing on whether new behaviors can still communicate trust, openness, and reciprocity. Forced social interaction and post-pandemic boundaries (Priority: 4/5): Stephen notes that lockdown reduced unwanted social obligations, and the conversation turns to whether people will keep rejecting low-value invitations and requests after reopening. Why uncertainty feels worse now (Priority: 5/5): The second half of the episode examines pandemic uncertainty, arguing that even though uncertainty is ancient, modern expectations for prediction have risen because of better forecasting and more information. Risk versus uncertainty (Priority: 5/5): Angela explains the distinction between measurable risk and unknowable uncertainty, using economics and psychology concepts to show why ambiguity is so stressful. Surprise, predictability, and child development (Priority: 4/5): The discussion broadens to how predictable and benign environments help children thrive, while small positive surprises may be a healthy alternative to total uncertainty. Science, secularity, and humility (Priority: 4/5): They consider whether secularization and scientific thinking change our relationship to uncertainty, concluding that scientists often emphasize limits, confidence intervals, and nuance rather than certainty.
Key Arguments: Handshakes are increasingly hard to justify because they are intimate, sweaty, and now visibly linked to disease transmission. A handshake serves social functions—reciprocity, trust, and the start of a social script—that any replacement gesture must also satisfy. New greeting rituals are more likely to stick if they are quick, mutual, and visually clear, such as a salute or bow. Uncertainty is a longstanding human condition, but modern life has raised expectations for prediction, making present-day uncertainty feel especially intolerable. Psychological distress comes from both unknown probabilities and imagined worst-case outcomes; people often confuse uncertainty with measurable risk. Scientists are not pure certainty-machines; they often communicate uncertainty more honestly than the public would prefer. Children benefit from consistent, predictable environments because unpredictability can produce hypervigilance and emotional reactivity. Small planned surprises may help restore some of the positive spontaneity lost during lockdown without reintroducing harmful uncertainty.
Data Points: Religiously unaffiliated population worldwide: about 16% - Used in the fact check discussing secularization trends and uncertainty. Young adults in the U.S. identifying as religiously unaffiliated: nearly four times as likely as young adults a generation ago - Fact check on declining religiosity among younger Americans. Weather prediction window: 36 hours out - Angela cites improvements in local rainfall forecasting as an example of better prediction. Burger comparison: third-pound vs. quarter-pound - Fact check explains why A&W’s third-pound burger failed: consumers thought one-third was smaller than one-fourth. Uncertainty scale example: 0 to 10 - Used as a possible way to initiate a more vulnerable conversational check-in on Zoom. Quarantine self-rating example: two out of 10 - A suggested self-disclosure to begin remote interactions more honestly. Current public-health behavior example: elbow pump - Mentioned as a temporary greeting substitute during early quarantine.
Pivotal Quotes: "I think we should each carry a symbol, and then when we meet each other, we can go cling!" — Angela Duckworth: A playful proposal for replacing the handshake with a symbolic non-contact greeting. "I don't think it's hands that you're averse to, it's humans." — Stephen Dubner: A joking exchange about Stephen’s discomfort with handshakes and physical closeness. "There are two kinds of uncertainty... epistemic uncertainty... And then there's aleatory uncertainty..." — Angela Duckworth: A key conceptual distinction used to explain why uncertainty is psychologically difficult.
Implications: Expect some social rituals, especially handshakes, to decline if credible substitutes emerge. The episode also suggests people may carry forward a stronger awareness of uncertainty, but only if they learn to distinguish it from risk and tolerate ambiguity better.