10.72- The Decision

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode traces how Kerensky’s fragile provisional government collapsed into irrelevance in September–October 1917 while the Bolsheviks gained legitimacy, organization, and momentum. Amid worsening shortages, peasant land seizures, urban unrest, and the evacuation scare over Petrograd, Lenin pushed the party toward immediate armed insurrection. A decisive Bolshevik Central Committee vote on October 10 set the October Revolution in motion.

Main Topics: Kerensky’s unstable “new government” (Priority: 5/5): After the Democratic Conference, Kerensky forms a weakened government tied to a hollowed-out Pre-Parliament, then further alienates socialist allies by packing it with bourgeois delegates. State collapse and social crisis (Priority: 5/5): Inflation, factory shutdowns, unemployment, scarcity, crime, and rural land seizures show the Provisional Government losing practical authority across city and countryside. Bolshevik rise in the soviets (Priority: 5/5): As Mensheviks and SRs compromise and lose credibility, Bolsheviks win majorities in Moscow and Petrograd soviets and Trotsky becomes a key public figure. Lenin’s push for immediate insurrection (Priority: 5/5): From hiding in Finland, Lenin argues the party must seize power before the Constituent Assembly, fearing delay will leave Bolsheviks a minority. The Petrograd evacuation scare and MRC (Priority: 4/5): Government plans to abandon Petrograd to the Germans trigger outrage; the Soviet forms the Military Revolutionary Committee, effectively placing armed force under Bolshevik influence. The October 10 Central Committee decision (Priority: 5/5): A tense, consequential meeting splits Lenin’s camp but ends with a 10–2 vote for immediate preparations for armed uprising, formally launching the coup path.

Key Arguments: Kerensky believed he was consolidating power, but in reality his government had lost legitimacy, coercive power, and public support. The provisional regime’s failure to solve bread, land, and peace issues pushed workers, peasants, soldiers, and sailors toward radical alternatives. Bolshevik slogans—peace, land, and freedom—matched the crisis better than the compromised platforms of Mensheviks and SRs. Lenin argued that waiting for the Constituent Assembly would make the Bolsheviks a marginal minority and squander a unique revolutionary window. Trotsky and the Bolsheviks used the language of defending Petrograd and the soviets to build legal-political cover for an armed takeover. The Soviet-created Military Revolutionary Committee became the practical mechanism that fused official defense with Bolshevik military power. Kamenev and Zinoviev were correct that a coup was risky, but Lenin insisted the greater risk was not acting while conditions were favorable.

Data Points: Initial Pre-Parliament size: 313 members - The provisional “Provisional Council of the Russian Republic” created after the Democratic Conference Additional bourgeois delegates added: 150 - Kerensky’s government enlarged the Pre-Parliament with landowning and business-owning representatives Paper money printed in April: 400 million rubles - Continuing inflation and fiscal breakdown under the provisional governments Paper money printed in June: 700 million rubles - Escalating currency inflation Paper money printed in July: over 1 billion rubles - Further monetary expansion fueling price rises Factories shut down in summer: 500 - Industrial contraction during the summer of 1917 Workers left out of work: close to 100,000 - Impact of factory shutdowns and economic collapse Bolshevik majority in Moscow Soviet: September 19, 1917 - A key milestone in Bolshevik political momentum Bolshevik majority in Petrograd Soviet: September 25, 1917 - The capital Soviet shifts to Bolshevik control Central Committee vote: 10–2 - Vote on October 10 for immediate preparations for armed coup Central Committee attendance: 12 of 21 members - Attendance at the decisive October 10 meeting Scheduled second Congress of Soviets: October 20, 1917 - Bolsheviks maneuver to hold a congress they expect to dominate

Pivotal Quotes: "Peace, Land and Freedom" — Bolsheviks: The countryside slogan used to win peasant support "Peace, Bread and Freedom" — Bolsheviks: The urban slogan used to appeal to workers "The Bolsheviks Must Take Power" — Lenin: Title of Lenin’s September 12 essay urging immediate seizure of power

Implications: The episode shows how revolutionary success depended on timing, organizational control, and public legitimacy. Lenin’s insistence on immediate action, combined with the Petrograd crisis, made the October coup possible and shifted Russia from provisional instability to Bolshevik takeover.