163: ‘Low Grade Scam’ With Joanna Stern

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The conversation ranges across Apple’s tough TV negotiations, the future of Macs and the Apple Watch, iMessage and Apple Pay strategy, Amazon’s cheap Android phones, and Microsoft’s Windows 10 rollout. A recurring theme is how major tech platforms use software, hardware, and ecosystem lock-in to shape user behavior, while also making life easier—or harder—for consumers.

Main Topics: Apple’s TV negotiations and cable industry friction (Priority: 5/5): The speakers dissect a Wall Street Journal report on Apple’s failed TV bundle negotiations, focusing on Apple’s hard-line demands, its willingness to wait, and the cable companies’ incentive to paint Apple as arrogant. MacBook lineup uncertainty and upgrade timing (Priority: 5/5): They discuss the long wait for a refreshed MacBook Pro, concerns about current Macs being outdated, and the challenge for buyers deciding whether to purchase now or hold out for fall announcements. iMessage, Apple Pay, and platform lock-in (Priority: 4/5): The conversation explores whether Apple might bring iMessage to Android, with debate over whether iMessage is a buying factor or mainly a lock-in feature; Apple Pay is also positioned as a possible future messaging-payment layer. Apple Watch expectations and watchOS 3 (Priority: 4/5): They speculate that a new Apple Watch is likely in the fall, driven by watchOS 3 and the strong fitness/health use cases, with possible design and battery improvements. Amazon’s low-cost Blue Android phone (Priority: 4/5): They analyze the Blue R1 HD sold by Amazon, including the ad-supported model, the cheap hardware strategy, and how Amazon could use phones to deepen engagement with its services. Windows 10 upgrade confusion and Microsoft’s strategy (Priority: 4/5): The discussion explains Microsoft’s staggered Windows 10 free-upgrade deadline and anniversary update, plus the UI problems that caused some PCs to upgrade unexpectedly overnight. Payments moving toward mobile and NFC adoption (Priority: 5/5): They argue the chip-card transition is clunky but may accelerate Apple Pay/Android Pay adoption as retailers upgrade terminals with NFC, creating a broader shift toward phone-based payments and identification.

Key Arguments: Apple can afford to wait in TV negotiations, so cable companies are using the press to frame Apple as arrogant rather than conceding on terms. The lack of a new MacBook Pro by WWDC makes the current lineup feel stale, especially for buyers needing a laptop for school or work in the fall. iMessage may not drive initial iPhone purchases, but it is a major reason people hesitate to leave iPhone once they are embedded in group chats and family communication. Apple Pay has an advantage because it is simple, fast, and emotionally satisfying compared with the awkward chip-card experience. The chip-card rollout is frustrating but may indirectly benefit mobile wallets because the same terminals often support NFC. Windows 10’s free-upgrade push and auto-upgrade behavior created user backlash, especially when notifications were easy to misinterpret. The Apple Watch likely needs another hardware revision because watchOS 3 suggests a better, more fitness-centered experience than the original hardware fully supports. Amazon’s ad-supported budget phone model could work as a cheap, service-first device for consumers who need an interim or secondary phone.

Data Points: Apple TV bundle price goal: $30/month - Apple reportedly wanted a monthly package for multiple TV channels Eddie Cue meeting attire: 10 minutes late; jeans, tennis shoes with no socks, Hawaiian shirt - Reportedly how Apple’s Eddie Cue appeared at a Time Warner meeting Backblaze price: $5/month per computer - Described as unlimited backup pricing Backblaze data stored: 200 petabytes - Amount of data collectively stored by Backblaze Blue R1 HD price: $50 - Base price for Amazon’s sold Android phone Blue R1 HD ad-free / higher storage price: $60 with ads - Cheaper Amazon-linked configuration mentioned in discussion iPhone SE price: $399 for 16GB; $499 for 64GB - Used as a benchmark for Apple’s low-end pricing Windows 10 free-upgrade deadline: 11 p.m. Hawaii time on July 29 - The end of the free upgrade window Windows 10 anniversary update date: August 2 - The next major update discussed for Windows 10 Live Photos size: ~3x regular photos - Used to argue Apple should ship more base storage

Pivotal Quotes: "better than anything you've ever had" — Apple officials (reported by WSJ): Apple’s response when Comcast’s CEO asked to see the proposed TV interface "slowly then quickly" — Joanna Stern / attributed to Hemingway: Used to describe how disruptive changes like cord-cutting and platform shifts happen "We are making it a priority to bring our services to other platforms" — Tim Cook (referenced by speakers): Cited in the discussion about whether Apple would ever make iMessage for Android or expand services beyond its own devices

Implications: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and others are pushing users toward tightly integrated ecosystems, while old distribution models like cable and magnetic-card payments keep eroding. Consumers should delay big hardware buys when major refreshes are near and expect more services, payments, and identity features to move onto phones and watches.