2022 In Review, 2023 Predictions — With Casey Newton

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Casey Newton and Alex Kantrowitz review the tech year and forecast 2023, centering on Twitter’s collapse under Elon Musk, the rise of ChatGPT, crypto’s implosion, and shifts at Meta, Amazon, TikTok, Substack, and Apple. The conversation frames 2022 as a year of rapid upheaval, with Twitter, AI, and platform regulation reshaping the tech landscape.

Main Topics: Twitter’s collapse under Elon Musk (Priority: 5/5): The discussion opens with Musk’s chaotic ownership, suspensions of journalists and other prominent users, collapsing trust, ad revenue declines, and the possibility that Twitter has entered a death spiral or even a smoking-crater future. ChatGPT and the AI disruption wave (Priority: 5/5): Newton argues that ChatGPT is a genuinely new, broadly useful product that could change search, knowledge work, and education, with Google forced to respond carefully because of business and regulatory constraints. Crypto’s failure and the end of Web3 hype (Priority: 5/5): The hosts reflect on the collapse of NFTs, Three Arrows, Voyager, FTX, and broader crypto credibility, arguing the industry failed to deliver safer, better user experiences and was driven largely by speculation. Big tech transitions at Amazon and Meta (Priority: 4/5): Amazon under Andy Jassy is described as stable but boring, while Meta’s year is characterized by heavy investment in the metaverse, internal inefficiency, layoffs, and looming competition from Apple’s headset. Platform regulation and content moderation (Priority: 4/5): Newton predicts legal battles over state laws in Florida and Texas that could limit moderation choices, potentially forcing platforms to host lawful but harmful content in those jurisdictions. TikTok, Substack, and new distribution models (Priority: 3/5): TikTok remains culturally dominant but faces regulatory scrutiny and competition from Shorts/Reels, while Substack’s growth may push it toward ad monetization alongside subscriptions. Apple’s ecosystem power and app store opening (Priority: 3/5): The conversation notes Europe’s pressure on Apple to allow third-party app stores and external payments, with implications for anti-competitive control, though Apple is expected to move slowly.

Key Arguments: Twitter’s business model is deteriorating because Musk damaged both advertising and subscription trust, while driving away journalists who made the platform central to news discovery. Musk’s impulsive moderation is framed as non-principled and reactive, not a coherent free-speech policy, undermining the ideological support he once had from influential allies. ChatGPT matters because it can serve as a high-utility assistant for writing, research, and other knowledge work, unlike image generation tools that have narrower everyday use. Google may have the underlying technology for a ChatGPT-like product, but its challenge is release strategy, trust/safety, and protecting its ad-driven search business. Crypto failed to evolve beyond speculation and did not meaningfully improve UX, security, or reliability; the sector’s scandals destroyed momentum and credibility. Meta’s metaverse bet is still plausible long-term, but the company’s organizational churn and weak culture make execution difficult, especially versus Apple’s stronger consumer appeal. Content moderation could become legally constrained in parts of the U.S., producing a major First Amendment and platform-governance fight. Substack’s free network effects are growing, but monetizing those audiences may require ads, pushing the company beyond a subscription-only model. TikTok remains strong culturally, but its long-term growth is threatened by political backlash, government bans on devices, and competition from Reels/Shorts.

Data Points: Twitter ad revenue mix: 90% - Newton says Twitter made about 90% of its revenue from ads last year. Twitter valuation/revenue context: $5 billion - He says Musk bought a company that had been worth about $5 billion or generated about $5 billion in revenue. Twitter Blue price: $11 - Used as an example of eroded trust after policy changes and monetization attempts. World Cup timing: Current quarter should be strong seasonally - Newton notes ad revenue should usually benefit because the World Cup is Twitter’s best-performing period. Meta metaverse investment: $10 billion per year - Discussed as Meta’s scale of annual investment in metaverse efforts. Meta metaverse spend share: 20% of all money made next year - Newton says Meta is expected to put around 20% of revenue into metaverse-related work, up from 18% this year. Meta prior year metaverse spend share: 18% - Referenced as the prior-year share of money invested in metaverse efforts. Amazon market cap decline: close to 50% - Kantrowitz notes Amazon lost close to half of its market cap during the year. Crypto ecosystem collapses: NFT market, Voyager, Three Arrows, FTX - Examples used to illustrate broad crypto failures in 2022. Substack subscriber growth: tens of thousands - Newton says he added tens of thousands of free subscribers through recommendations. TikTok moderation/ban pressure: government-device bans and Senate bill - He cites Republican governors banning TikTok on state devices and a Senate bill targeting government devices. Podcast growth via TikTok: 50,000 likes - Newton says clipped Hard Fork videos can receive around 50,000 likes on TikTok. Twitter employee resignation wave: another round within 24 hours - Referenced in the CNBC intro as ongoing turmoil at Twitter.

Pivotal Quotes: "I do not see how the company comes back from what this man has just put it through." — Casey Newton: On whether Twitter can recover after Musk’s chaotic decisions and mass suspensions. "I think Twitter is going to look like a smoking crater, you know" — Casey Newton: His 2023 prediction for Twitter’s state after continued damage. "If you’re going to do this and hunch over, look at your phone, you might as well just glue, literally glue the phone to your face" — Casey Newton: Explaining why he still sees long-term potential in AR/VR and the metaverse.

Implications: The episode suggests 2023 will be shaped by platform instability, AI adoption, and regulatory backlash. For users and builders, trust, distribution, and governance are becoming as important as product quality.