2024: the year of elections

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that 2024’s global election super-cycle is unfolding amid democratic backsliding, economic frustration, and populist momentum. Haass and Ash say Europe is likely to shift further right, but they agree the U.S. election is the pivotal event, with major implications for NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the global order if America turns inward or Trump returns.

Main Topics: Global democratic backsliding and populism (Priority: 5/5): Haass frames the election year as part of a broader decline in democratic quality, where economic stress, COVID, globalization, social media, and technological disruption have made electorates more receptive to outsiders and populists. European elections and hard-right momentum (Priority: 5/5): Ash argues Europe’s many national, regional, and EU-level contests are likely to favor nationalist, anti-migration, hard-right parties, reinforcing a broader populist shift in the EU. The U.S. election as the decisive global event (Priority: 5/5): Both guests say November’s U.S. election will matter more than any other vote because of America’s outsized global role and the stark contrast between Biden’s internationalism and Trump’s America First approach. Ukraine war shaped by U.S. support (Priority: 5/5): They argue 2024 will not resolve the war, but the outcome of the U.S. election will heavily influence 2025 prospects for negotiations, Western aid, and whether Putin believes time is on his side. Taiwan and Indo-Pacific security (Priority: 4/5): Haass says Taiwan’s own election changes little strategically; the more important variable is whether the next U.S. administration remains committed and capable of defending Taiwan amid stretched military capacity. EU integration, Orbán, and institutional strain (Priority: 4/5): Ash highlights Viktor Orbán as a key spoiler inside the EU, warning that a stronger populist bloc could slow qualified majority voting, enlargement, and efforts to make the EU a stronger geopolitical actor. UK political change and relationship reset (Priority: 3/5): Ash expects the Conservatives to lose and says a Labour-led government could pursue either incremental EU re-engagement or a broader security-focused reset, especially if Trump returns and Europe faces a security crisis.

Key Arguments: Democratic backsliding is widespread, with democracies becoming less liberal and more vulnerable to populist challengers when governments fail to deliver economically. Economic disappointment, COVID, globalization, and technological change have raised frustration levels, making voters more open to anti-establishment alternatives. Europe’s 2024 elections are likely to strengthen hard-right nationalist parties, especially where migration remains the defining issue. The Poland result is a rare counterexample: organized opposition and high turnout can defeat entrenched populists even after state capture. The U.S. election is the most consequential globally because America’s leadership role underpins the postwar order and because the candidates offer radically different foreign-policy visions. A Trump victory could weaken support for Ukraine, strain NATO credibility, and raise doubts about U.S. commitments in Europe and Asia. Taiwan’s election is less decisive than the U.S. election, because Washington’s stance is what most shapes cross-strait deterrence. Europe’s ability to act independently remains limited; without more defense spending and industrial capacity, strategic autonomy will not be achieved quickly. The UK’s post-election path toward the EU may depend heavily on whether the U.S. remains reliable as a security anchor. 2024 is likely a year of positioning rather than resolution in Ukraine; decisive shifts are more likely in 2025 depending on U.S. policy and allied resilience.

Data Points: Share of world population voting in 2024: over half - The episode opens by noting that voters representing more than half the world’s population will head to the polls this year. Number of national European elections: 9 - Ash says Europe has nine national elections alongside regional and European Parliament contests. Poland turnout: 74% - Ash cites high turnout in Poland’s election as evidence of strong anti-populist mobilization. Turnout increase vs. 1989 Poland election: 12% higher - Ash says turnout was 12 percentage points higher than in 1989, when elections helped end communist rule. US defense spending versus Cold War average: roughly half - Haass says current U.S. military spending is only about half the Cold War average as a share of GDP. Postwar period referenced: 75 years - Haass points to the last 75 years as an unusually successful era of global stability and rising living standards.

Pivotal Quotes: "This is a moment where populists have an advantage." — Richard Haass: Haass explains why incumbents are vulnerable in an era of economic dissatisfaction and low confidence. "The consequences of November 2024, the U.S. election dwarfs everything else." — Richard Haass: Haass emphasizes the outsized global stakes of the U.S. presidential election. "The most important election for Europe this year doesn't happen in Europe at all. It is the U.S. election." — Timothy Garden Ash: Ash argues that American politics will shape Europe’s security and policy direction more than any European vote.

Implications: Listeners should expect election outcomes to affect markets and geopolitics through 2025, especially on Ukraine, NATO, Taiwan, EU integration, and transatlantic stability. The biggest variable is whether the U.S. continues leading abroad or turns inward.