Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Michael Shermer and John Petricelli discuss bullshit as a distinct, widespread social problem: unlike lying, it often ignores truth rather than directly contradicting it. They explore how to detect it using critical thinking, questioning, and evidence, applying the ideas to vaccine hesitancy, conspiracy theories, education, admissions testing, and consumer decisions like houses, cars, and diamonds.
Main Topics: Bullshit vs. lying: Petricelli distinguishes bullshit from lying: liars know the truth and distort it, while bullshitters are indifferent to truth. The harm of bullshit is often underestimated because it is socially tolerated more than lying. How to detect and confront bullshit: The conversation centers on practical tools for detection: ask clarifying 'how' questions, probe for alternatives, and encourage people to explain their reasoning. Doing so often exposes inconsistency and lowers unwarranted confidence. Critical thinking and scientific thinking in education: Petricelli argues that schools should explicitly teach inquiry, evidence evaluation, and retrieval practice much earlier. He believes students are often trained to absorb authority rather than build and test knowledge. Vaccine hesitancy and motivated reasoning: Shermer and Petricelli use vaccine refusal as a case study in bullshit reasoning, risk misperception, and self-sealing beliefs. Facts alone often fail; doubt must sometimes be planted indirectly. Conspiracy theories, social proof, and overconfidence: They discuss January 6, 9/11 conspiracies, and Bernie Madoff to show how belief can outrun evidence. Social proof, identity, and overconfidence often make people vulnerable to deception and self-deception. Testing, admissions, and need for cognition: The hosts debate SAT/GRE use and the concept of need for cognition. Petricelli says need for cognition is a useful predictor of success and that standardized tests provide imperfect but meaningful data. Bullshit in consumer and life decisions: The discussion closes with practical advice for big-ticket decisions such as houses, cars, wine, and diamonds: seek expert input, compare reference points, and ask skeptical questions before committing money.
Key Arguments: Bullshit is more common than outright lying, and its social acceptability makes it especially dangerous. People often trust claims that align with what they want to believe, even when evidence is weak or absent. Independent converging evidence from multiple fields is among the best reasons to believe a claim. Critical thinking is a skill that must be taught and practiced; it does not arise naturally. Students and adults are often overconfident about what they know, which makes them vulnerable to bullshit. Asking 'how' rather than 'why' tends to reveal reasoning processes and expose unsupported claims. Vaccine hesitancy is driven less by pure information deficits than by identity, fear, and motivated reasoning. Conspiracy theories usually require implausibly large, sustained coordination that is unlikely to remain secret. Need for cognition, though correlated only modestly with intelligence, is valuable because self-directed learning requires intrinsic motivation. For expensive or consequential decisions, people should seek informed, non-selling experts and check the basics themselves.
Data Points: Truth regains trust after dishonesty: 150 to 200 truthful acts - Shermer cites research showing that after a lie, many truthful behaviors are needed to restore trust. SAT-related variance explained: 4% - Petricelli notes that critics use this figure to argue standardized tests explain only a small portion of college performance. Correlation equivalent example: 0.2 correlation - He converts a drug survival example into a correlation to show why 4% explained variance can still matter. Need for cognition and intelligence correlation: ~0.15 - Petricelli says need for cognition is positively related to intelligence but only weakly. Time span for rare vaccine side effects: Usually within 6 weeks - Petricelli says rare side effects from vaccines historically appear quickly, which informs FDA review timing. FDA emergency vaccine review window: 2 months - He says the FDA waits about two months after emergency approval to look for rare side effects. COVID vs automobile deaths (U.S., 2020): 385,000 vs 38,500 - Shermer compares the death tolls to argue that people underestimate COVID risk relative to everyday driving. Confidence-test performance: Usually 2 or 3 correct out of 10; never more than 6 - Petricelli describes a class exercise showing students are overconfident in estimating factual ranges. Bernie Madoff investors: 4,800 investors - Used as an example of social proof, affinity scam dynamics, and bullability. Bernie Madoff strategy: 18 years of apparent outperformance - Petricelli says the scheme looked credible because it seemed to work for years.
Pivotal Quotes: "Bullshitters are doing something different." — John Petricelli: Used to distinguish bullshit from lying at the start of the discussion. "The very, very first thing that I think people must realize is that they often sort of operate as if they're prisoners of the confines of their own personal and professional experience." — John Petricelli: On why people become overconfident and resistant to evidence. "Which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence as well." — John Petricelli: Petricelli cites Hitchens’ razor as a concise rule for evaluating unsupported claims.
Implications: Listeners are encouraged to treat truth claims skeptically, ask better questions, and rely on converging evidence. The episode suggests education, public discourse, and consumer decision-making all improve when people resist overconfidence and demand accountability.