214. How to Create Suspense

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This Freakonomics Radio episode examines how suspense and surprise work in stories, sports, film, and news, using Harlan Coben, economists Jeff Ely, Alex Frankel, and Amir Kamenica, and producer Brian Grazer. The core claim is that attention is driven by belief changes: suspense is anticipation of future belief shifts, surprise is the post-event shock. The episode explores how creators strategically manage these emotions and how audiences, markets, and genres respond.

Main Topics: Suspense vs. surprise as distinct forms of engagement (Priority: 5/5): Harlan Coben and the economists define suspense as the anticipation of belief changes and surprise as the experience after beliefs change. The episode emphasizes that both shape attention, but in different temporal ways. Economics of belief manipulation (Priority: 5/5): The economists argue entertainment is an optimization problem involving a scarce resource: the ability to change beliefs. This framework applies beyond fiction to sales, lobbying, and persuasion. Sports as a laboratory for suspense (Priority: 4/5): The discussion uses soccer, basketball, baseball, and hypothetical games to show how rule structure affects suspense and surprise. Soccer is framed as highly suspenseful but less surprising than many American sports. Designing an optimal game (Priority: 4/5): The economists propose versions of a sport designed for maximum suspense, such as 'last team to score wins' and shrinking goals, while noting real-world cultural constraints limit pure optimization. Storytelling formulas in film and television (Priority: 5/5): Brian Grazer explains that shows like Empire and films like Apollo 13 deliberately use staged surprises and emotional cross-cutting to keep audiences engaged, though not always in a conscious formulaic way. Limits of surprise in genre storytelling (Priority: 4/5): The episode argues that repeated twists can reduce future surprise value, as seen in M. Night Shyamalan’s declining box office and in superhero films where audiences have learned the pattern. News as entertainment (Priority: 4/5): The conversation ends by challenging the assumption that news is consumed only for information, suggesting it also satisfies a desire for suspense and surprise through framing, teasers, and cliffhangers.

Key Arguments: Suspense and surprise should be treated as separate dimensions of engagement, not a single notion of excitement. A missing person can create more sustained suspense than a corpse because hope raises emotional stakes. Creators work with a finite audience capacity for surprise; too many twists can overwhelm or dull impact. Knowing the ending in advance allows a writer or producer to misdirect audiences while still landing the final twist. Sports differ because rules are fixed and known, making belief changes more predictable than in film or novels. Soccer’s low scoring makes it low in surprise but high in suspense, since any goal can matter deeply at any moment. Film and TV can create suspense through editing, cross-cutting, and withholding information even when the outcome is historically known. Repeated surprise reduces its own value over time because audiences learn to expect it. News may be consumed partly for dramatic anticipation and emotional payoff, not just civic information.

Data Points: Harlan Coben books in print worldwide: around 70 million - Coben describes his success while discussing suspense writing. Harlan Coben books written: 27th book - He says The Stranger is his 27th book. Number of plot twists in a mystery novel: 3 on average - The economists say their research suggests an optimal twist count of about three. Estimated surprise value in mystery novels: small / around 3 twists - Used to illustrate a limited capacity for surprise. Brian Grazer’s Oscar wins: 1 - He won an Oscar for A Beautiful Mind. Brian Grazer’s projects' box office: more than $13 billion - Describes the commercial success of his productions. Oscar nominations tied to Grazer’s movies: 43 - His films have received 43 Oscar nominations. Emmy nominations tied to Grazer’s TV shows: more than 150 - His television projects have been heavily recognized by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences. Curiosity conversations Brian Grazer has held: probably a thousand people - He describes his research method of interviewing interesting people. KC-135 zero-gravity shot length: 24 to 28 seconds of weightlessness - Grazer explains how Apollo 13 recreated zero gravity during filming. Screen time per parabola in Apollo 13 filming: about 16 seconds - A practical limitation of the zero-gravity shooting method. Episode timing reference: 11 o'clock at night to 4 in the morning - Coben describes the ideal late-night reading experience.

Pivotal Quotes: "Hope can be the cruelest thing in the world. It can crush your heart like an eggshell, or it can make it sore." — Harlan Coben: On why missing people create especially powerful suspense. "We view the construction and the development of suspense and surprise ... as basically optimally economizing on a scarce resource, which is the ability to change someone's beliefs." — Amir Kamenica: Explaining the economists’ core framework for entertainment and persuasion. "One of the hardest part of the job is to make sure at the ending ... I also have to stir the heart." — Harlan Coben: On balancing twists with emotional payoff in storytelling.

Implications: Creators should manage expectations as carefully as plot, because audience engagement depends on belief change. The framework applies to sports, entertainment, advertising, and news, suggesting that information alone is not what holds attention.