Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Michael Shermer and Bart Ehrman discuss Ehrman’s upcoming seminar on the historical vs legendary elements of the Christmas story, then broaden to Jesus’ existence, crucifixion, resurrection, Trinity, atonement, the rise of Christianity, and the problem of evil. Ehrman argues that history can assess probabilities, not miracles, and that Christianity’s growth is explainable through exclusivity, missionary zeal, and compounding conversion rates.
Main Topics: The Christmas story: history vs legend (Priority: 5/5): Ehrman previews his seminar by explaining what can and cannot be known about Jesus’ birth, including Bethlehem, the virgin birth, the Magi, and other later traditions; he emphasizes that only Matthew and Luke contain nativity narratives. Historical method and ancient belief (Priority: 4/5): They contrast modern historical reasoning with ancient attitudes toward myth, fiction, and miracles, arguing that early Christians likely treated miracle stories as real events rather than symbolic truths. Evidence for Jesus’ existence and crucifixion (Priority: 5/5): Ehrman rejects mythicist claims as historically implausible, citing the gospels, earlier oral and written sources, and Paul’s knowledge of Jesus’ brother and disciples as strong evidence that Jesus existed and was crucified. Resurrection, faith, and probability (Priority: 5/5): The conversation distinguishes historical probability from theological belief. Ehrman argues historians cannot verify resurrection miracles and that alternative explanations for post-death appearances are historically more probable. Christian doctrines: Trinity and atonement (Priority: 4/5): They discuss how Christians historically reasoned backward from belief in Jesus’ resurrection to doctrines of divinity, sacrifice, atonement, and the Trinity, including rejected views like modalism. The triumph of Christianity (Priority: 5/5): Ehrman explains Christianity’s growth from a small Jesus movement to a global religion through exclusivity, missionary behavior, and exponential/compound growth over centuries. Problem of evil and suffering (Priority: 5/5): The discussion ends on theodicy: why an omnipotent, loving God permits suffering such as tsunamis, childhood leukemia, rape, genocide, and the Holocaust; Ehrman finds this the deepest challenge to Christianity.
Key Arguments: Historical claims about Jesus should be evaluated using ordinary historical criteria, not theological convenience. The nativity stories are not uniform across the New Testament; only Matthew and Luke tell birth narratives, and they differ in significant ways. Ancient people generally did not separate myth from history the way moderns do; miracle claims were asked as “did this particular miracle happen?” rather than “can miracles happen at all?” Mythicist arguments fail because the existence of Jesus is supported by multiple independent traditions, the gospels, and Paul’s references to Jesus’ family and followers. The resurrection cannot be established historically because historians can only judge probabilities, and a bodily resurrection is extraordinarily improbable compared with naturalistic alternatives. Christianity spread because it was both exclusive and missionary, unlike most ancient religions, allowing small annual conversion rates to compound over time. Doctrines like the Trinity and atonement arose as theological attempts to explain Jesus’ death, resurrection, and divine status after the fact. The problem of evil remains unresolved: appeals to free will explain some human suffering but not natural disasters, childhood disease, or mass atrocities.
Data Points: Seminar date: December 5 - Bart Ehrman’s all-day live seminar on the birth of Jesus Seminar time: 9:30 a.m. to 4:00/4:30 p.m. Eastern - All-day online seminar schedule mentioned repeatedly Early bird price: $39.95 - Discount available if registered before the cutoff Regular price: $49.95 or $50 - Standard seminar price after early bird window Number of New Testament books with nativity story: 2 of 27 - Matthew and Luke contain birth narratives; Mark, John, and Paul do not Christianity today: 2.5 billion people - Estimated number of Christians worldwide in the discussion of Christianity’s triumph Growth rate needed: About 1% per year / 3 converts per 100 believers per year - Used to illustrate compounding expansion over centuries Decadal growth rate: 30–35% per decade - Ehrman’s rough estimate for Christianity’s historical growth trajectory Survey statistic: 1 out of 8 - He says one in eight people in the U.S. believe they have seen a dead relative after burial Biblical canon size: 27 books - Reference to the New Testament corpus
Pivotal Quotes: "I mean, we have four biographies of this man." — Bart Ehrman: Used to argue that Jesus’ existence is historically well supported compared with most ancient figures "Historians can only establish the probabilities of what happened in the past." — Bart Ehrman: Explaining why miracles like the resurrection cannot be proven by historical method "Christianity was the only religion that was exclusive, that said we're right and therefore you're wrong." — Bart Ehrman: Part of his explanation for how Christianity became dominant
Implications: Listeners get a clear distinction between historical inquiry and faith claims. The episode suggests Christianity’s origins and growth are best understood through context, sources, and social dynamics, while core doctrines and theodicy remain matters of belief and unresolved philosophy.