235. China and World War II (Part 1)

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that the Sino-Japanese War should be seen as the true opening of World War II in Asia, and possibly globally, beginning in 1937 rather than 1939. Rana Mitter traces the conflict’s roots to 19th-century Western imperial pressure, Chinese fragmentation, Japanese modernization and empire, and then explains how the Marco Polo Bridge incident escalated into full-scale war, with Shanghai and Nanjing becoming decisive battlegrounds.

Main Topics: World War II begins in Asia in 1937 (Priority: 5/5): The hosts and Rana Mitter argue that the Sino-Japanese War should be treated as the start of World War II because it became a major, interconnected global conflict before Europe’s 1939 outbreak fully expanded it. Long roots of Chinese weakness and nationalism (Priority: 5/5): Mitter explains how the Opium Wars, foreign concessions, warlordism, and the fall of the Qing dynasty created a fractured China that later fueled Chinese nationalism and the Nationalist state under Chiang Kai-shek. Japanese imperial expansion and Manchuria (Priority: 5/5): Japan’s rapid modernization and imperial ambitions led to the conquest of Taiwan, Korea, and Manchuria, with the 1931 Mukden/Manchurian incident creating a major escalation and puppet state. Why 1937, not 1931, is the key turning point (Priority: 4/5): Mitter distinguishes between the 1931 Manchurian crisis and the 1937 outbreak of full-scale war, arguing that a temporary truce and a lack of immediate total war make 1937 the better analytical start date. Chiang Kai-shek, the united front, and Chinese strategy (Priority: 5/5): Chiang’s diary, his decision to resist Japanese pressure, and the uneasy nationalist-communist united front are presented as central to China’s wartime response and survival. Shanghai as the first major modern battle (Priority: 4/5): The Battle of Shanghai is described as a highly visible, brutal, and strategically important confrontation that drew international attention and showcased China’s best-trained troops. Wang Jingwei and collaboration (Priority: 3/5): Wang Jingwei is introduced as a major nationalist figure whose later collaboration with Japan makes him a key but controversial actor in the wartime political landscape.

Key Arguments: The Sino-Japanese War should be understood as the opening phase of World War II because it was already a large-scale, state-on-state conflict before 1939. China’s late-19th- and early-20th-century instability came from foreign imperial pressure, internal warlordism, and the collapse of imperial authority. Japan’s empire was driven by both ideological resentment at Western double standards and economic pressure from the Great Depression. The 1931 Manchurian crisis did not immediately become total war; a truce and partial stabilization followed, making 1937 the better start date for full-scale war. Chiang Kai-shek consciously chose resistance in July 1937, knowing war was likely but believing Japan’s demands could not be accepted. The united front between Nationalists and Communists was a pragmatic wartime necessity, not a sign of genuine political reconciliation. Shanghai mattered because it was both a military showcase and a global media stage, making the war visible to the world. Japanese occupation of China was enabled by semi-colonial arrangements, railways, concessions, and local military leverage rather than only outright conquest.

Data Points: Estimated deaths in the Sino-Japanese War: 14 million - Dominic cites the scale of Chinese wartime deaths in the opening discussion. Estimated refugees: 80–100 million - Dominic describes the enormous displacement caused by the conflict. War period argued by Rana Mitter: 1937 to 1945 - Mitter’s book subtitle and central thesis define the war’s full-scale period. Alternative start date in China: 1931 - Referenced as the Manchurian/Mukden incident and later adopted in official Chinese historiography. Key outbreak date: 7 July 1937 - The Marco Polo Bridge/Wanping incident is presented as the immediate trigger for full-scale war. Manchuria size: About the size of France and Germany combined - Used to emphasize the scale of the Japanese takeover after 1931. Shanghai battle duration: About three months - Chinese forces held Shanghai for roughly three months before defeat in November 1937. Chinese retreat distance to wartime capital: 800 miles - Chiang Kai-shek’s government and army moved from Shanghai/Nanjing area to Chongqing. Qing dynasty rule: Since 1644 - Used to show the long imperial continuity before the dynasty’s collapse. Republic founded: 1912 - China became Asia’s first republic after the overthrow of the Qing. Long March: 1934–1935 - Communists were driven from Jiangxi to northwest China before the war. Japanese conquest of Taiwan: 1895 - Part of Japan’s imperial expansion in East Asia. Japanese colonization of Korea: 1910 - Another milestone in Japan’s imperial rise. Russo-Japanese War: 1904–1905 - Mentioned as a precursor conflict fought largely on Chinese territory in Manchuria.

Pivotal Quotes: "although nobody involved knew it, the Second World War had just begun" — Rana Mitter: His thesis on the 7 July 1937 Wanping incident as the true start of World War II in Asia. "War is untidy, inefficient, obscure, and largely a matter of chance." — W. H. Auden: Quoted at the start to frame the chaos and unpredictability of modern warfare. "China was suffering from imperialism from outside and warlordism from inside." — Rana Mitter: Summary of the structural weaknesses that made China vulnerable before the war.

Implications: The episode reframes World War II as a genuinely global conflict that began in Asia, not Europe alone. It also shows how imperialism, nationalism, and economic crisis shaped modern East Asia and still influence Chinese memory and politics today.