247: ‘I Have Faith in the Rice’ With Paul Kafasis

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode is a wide-ranging conversation that begins with casino development and naming controversies, then shifts into Apple’s recent product cycle, including new AirPods, iPad Air/mini updates, iMac refreshes, and the long-delayed AirPower. The hosts also debate AirPods battery aging, Apple’s product strategy, the App Store’s role versus direct web sales, and the value of future subscription bundles for news and video.

Main Topics: Wynn/Encore branding, Steve Wynn’s legacy, and casino development (Priority: 5/5): The hosts discuss Wynn’s Boston Harbor resort, the stripping of Steve Wynn’s name after misconduct allegations, and compare Boston’s project to the abandoned Philadelphia casino plan. They also debate the economics of casino tax revenue and urban land use. Apple’s staggered hardware week and the mystery of AirPower (Priority: 5/5): They analyze Apple’s unusual pattern of releasing iMacs, iPads, and AirPods by press release over several days ahead of a March 25 event, and speculate about why AirPower was pre-announced in 2017 but still not shipping. AirPods battery degradation and replacement concerns (Priority: 5/5): A substantial section focuses on how AirPods batteries age, whether they are effectively disposable after a few years, and the lack of a practical battery-replacement path compared with other Apple devices. iPad Air and iPad mini updates: value, display tech, and Pencil compatibility (Priority: 4/5): They discuss the new iPad mini and iPad Air, emphasizing True Tone displays, the A12 family chips, price positioning, and the compromise of using the first-generation Apple Pencil instead of Pencil 2. iMac speed bump and the future of Mac hardware (Priority: 4/5): The conversation covers the refreshed iMacs as incremental updates, the persistence of spinning hard drives, the likely role of Intel supply constraints, and speculation about Apple’s future ARM-based Macs and faster update cadence. Apple News and TV subscription ambitions (Priority: 4/5): They debate rumors of Apple bundling news and video subscriptions, questioning whether a bundle of many publications or video channels would solve any real consumer problem versus adding yet another subscription. Mac software distribution and the App Store’s limits (Priority: 4/5): The hosts challenge the idea that the App Store ‘democratized’ software by pointing out that web-based direct sales for Mac software were already thriving long before the App Store existed.

Key Arguments: Wynn’s Boston Harbor name is now an awkward compromise: the Steve Wynn branding was removed, but the Encore brand still references the original Vegas property and the location is not actually in Boston proper. AirPods are likely to become wasteful “disposable” hardware if batteries degrade after only 2–3 years, since Apple offers no easy consumer battery replacement. Apple’s decision to pre-announce AirPower in 2017 created unnecessary reputational risk; the product was not yet ready and the announcement now looks premature. The new iPad mini is excellent value and a strong default iPad choice, but Pencil 1 support and non–edge-to-edge design make it a compromise relative to the iPad Pro. The new iMacs are sensible speed bumps, but the continued use of spinning hard drives is increasingly outdated and only defensible on price grounds. Apple’s subscription strategy could be useful for news if it aggregates multiple paywalled publications, but video bundling risks confusing users who only want Apple originals. The App Store mattered hugely for iPhone software, but for Mac software the web already enabled a thriving independent distribution ecosystem years earlier.

Data Points: Wynn Boston Harbor opening delay: On the cusp of opening in about 3 months - Discussion of the Boston casino resort’s launch timing Boston casino tax rate: 25% - Massachusetts casino gambling tax mentioned in relation to state revenue Boston community payments: About $50 million over 15 years - Estimated payments to the city of Boston from the casino project Everett community payments: $472 million over 15 years - Estimated payments to Everett from the casino project Everett annual payout: About $32 million a year - Derived from the 15-year estimate for Everett Everett population: 46,000 - Used to underscore how large the casino’s payments are relative to city size AirPods battery life on new model: 3 hours talk time - Referenced as an improvement over prior AirPods AirPods battery life on prior model: 2 hours talk time - Old vs. new AirPods comparison Wireless charging case price: $40 extra - Cost to upgrade to the wireless charging case with new AirPods Standalone AirPods wireless charging case: $80 - Price to buy the case separately AirPods price: $160 - Used to argue that battery-limited lifespan is problematic for a premium product Original AirPods prototype timing: September/October 2016 - First review units and prototype AirPods distributed around the iPhone launch AirPower announcement timing: September 2017; promised in 2018 - Apple’s pre-announcement of the charging mat AirPower delay: Approximately 18 months+ - By the time of this episode, the product still had not shipped iMac update gap: About 600 days - How long since the previous iMac refresh iPad mini update gap: 3.5 years - Time elapsed before the new mini was refreshed iPad mini price: Starts at $400 - Positioned as a low-cost iPad option iPad Air price: Starts at $500 - Mid-tier price point compared with iPad Pro iPad Pro price: Starts at $800 - Used as comparison for the value of the new iPad Air/mini Apple Pencil 2 support: Not supported - New iPad mini and Air use Pencil 1 instead

Pivotal Quotes: "The way you used to buy software was in a box at a store. There was no way you could come up with an idea for an app and create it and put it in a shiny disk and sell it yourself. It just wasn't going to happen." — Sean Pruden (quoted by John/Paul discussion): Used to critique the claim that the App Store alone democratized software "I don't know if you remember, but the way you used to buy software was in a box at a store... so the app store really democratized software." — Sean Pruden (quoted): The quote that triggered the debate over direct web distribution on the Mac "It really feels a little, it almost feels like greasy in your hand." — John: Describing the older Apple Pencil after getting used to Pencil 2

Implications: Listeners should expect Apple’s next moves to be shaped by subscription bundles and platform strategy, but hardware tradeoffs still matter. The episode highlights how design compromises, battery longevity, and distribution models can make or break user trust.