263: ‘The Dumbest Thing Possible’ With Dan Frommer

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Dan Frommer discusses his move from Recode to launching The New Consumer, arguing that subscription newsletters are powering a revival of solo, passion-driven publishing. The conversation then shifts to Apple’s upcoming iPhone, Watch, and services event, where they dissect likely hardware upgrades, pricing, and ecosystem strategy, while also covering security concerns like SIM swapping and the growing utility of Apple Card and points-based rewards.

Main Topics: Dan Frommer’s indie publishing model (Priority: 5/5): Frommer explains why he left Recode to build The New Consumer, a subscription newsletter focused on consumer trends, e-commerce, and analysis rather than straight news. He emphasizes owning the whole product, controlling the business, and serving a professional audience willing to pay for insight. The resurgence of newsletters, RSS, and solo media (Priority: 5/5): The discussion frames newsletters as the modern replacement for blogs for many independent writers, highlighting direct audience relationships, frictionless reading in email, and the broader return of passion-driven solo publishing. Apple’s September iPhone event expectations (Priority: 5/5): They thoroughly unpack likely iPhone 11/Pro upgrades, including a third rear camera, potential matte glass finishes, possible new colors, and the odds of USB-C versus Lightning, concluding that Lightning will almost certainly remain. Apple Watch, Find My, and accessory rumors (Priority: 4/5): The pair speculate about Series 5 watch changes like titanium/ceramic cases and sleep tracking, plus a possible Tile-like tracking accessory and AR-powered finding experience integrated with Apple’s Find My ecosystem. Apple services strategy and bundling (Priority: 4/5): They debate how Apple will price TV+, Arcade, Music, News, and possible bundles, with particular skepticism that TV+ can stand alone at a premium without a library and curiosity about an 'Apple Prime'-style bundle or upgrade program tie-in. Security, SIM swapping, and two-factor authentication (Priority: 5/5): Frommer recounts being SIM-swapped while in Paris and uses the story to warn against using a mobile number as a second factor, urging Google Authenticator/Google Voice-style alternatives. Apple Card, points, and cash-back economics (Priority: 4/5): The conversation closes with a detailed comparison of Apple Card cash back versus Amex/Chase points, and a broader look at Square Cash boosts, Apple Cash, and how immediate cash rewards can be more compelling than opaque points systems.

Key Arguments: Subscription newsletters work because professionals will pay for high-quality analysis delivered directly to email, where it is easy to read and hard to ignore. The old solo-publisher model has returned, but now it is powered by subscriptions and email rather than banner ads or traditional blogging. Apple’s event will likely focus on iterative iPhone upgrades, not surprise hardware, because supply-chain leaks have revealed most details already. The iPhone will almost certainly keep Lightning; Apple has too much Lightning infrastructure and would face user backlash if it switched to USB-C. A matte glass back would be a meaningful usability improvement because glossy backs are slippery and hard to orient by touch. TV+ is hard to justify as a standalone subscription because it lacks a large back catalog, so Apple will likely need to bundle it or attach it to another service. SIM swapping is a serious, widespread threat, and phone numbers should not be treated as secure identity factors. Apple Card’s immediate cash-back model is psychologically satisfying and easier to understand than points, especially for everyday purchases. Apple’s likely strategic advantage in AR and device-tracking accessories is that it can make very small, integrated hardware that competitors struggle to match.

Data Points: The New Consumer annual price: $200/year - Frommer describes his subscription model and annual-only membership pricing. Email frequency for The New Consumer: 2 emails per week - Included with membership to the newsletter publication. ClearBank capital range: $10,000 to $10 million - Sponsor pitch described equity-free financing available to businesses. ClearBank 2018 investment volume: $150 million - Used to show the company’s scale and credibility. ClearBank projected 2019 investment volume: over $1 billion - Sponsor claims rapid growth in capital deployed. Apple Watch charging adapter: 18-watt charger - Referenced in the discussion of iPad Pro and charging speeds. iPad Pro fast charging ceiling: up to 30 watts - Used to compare charger capabilities and power delivery. Apple Card cash back: 2% - Used for Apple Pay purchases in the cash-back versus points comparison. Uber Apple Card bonus: 3% - Mentioned as a special rate versus the standard 2% cash back. Square Cash app usage: 3.5 million people - Square earnings figure cited for monthly Cash Card users in June. Point value example: 1.5 to 2 cents per point - Discussed as a rough valuation range for Amex/Chase points in the best redemption scenarios. Face ID security claim: 1 in 1,000,000 - Referenced as Apple’s touted unlock probability compared with Touch ID. Touch ID security claim: 1 in 50,000 - Referenced as Apple’s touted unlock probability for fingerprint authentication.

Pivotal Quotes: "obsession times voice." — Dan Frommer: He attributes great writing to deep passion combined with a distinctive authorial voice. "I really care about the reader experience." — Dan Frommer: Frommer explains why he prioritizes clean design, email delivery, and minimizing friction in his publication. "If you're not and if you just want some rewards and you want them quickly and you want them to be useful, I've already earned like two free coffees from Apple card and I barely use it." — Dan Frommer: He contrasts the simplicity of Apple Card cash back with more complex points systems.

Implications: The episode suggests independent, subscription-first media is becoming a durable model, while Apple is likely to lean on ecosystem lock-in, services bundling, and incremental hardware gains. It also underscores growing consumer demand for simple rewards and stronger account security.