80,000 Hours Podcast
80,000 Hours Podcast

#27 - Dr Tom Inglesby on careers and policies that reduce global catastrophic biological risks

How about this for a movie idea: a main character has to prevent a new contagious strain of Ebola spreading around the world. She’s the best of the best. So good in fact, that her work on early detection systems contains the strain at its source. Ten minutes into the movie, we see the results of her

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The 80,000 Hours team HostTom Inglesby Guest

Topics Discussed

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Tom Inglesby argues that health security should bridge public health and national security, with the biggest priorities being pandemic preparedness, catastrophic biological risks, and better governance of biotech. He emphasizes overlap between natural and human-caused threats, the need for multidisciplinary work, and concrete career paths in government, academia, diplomacy, and biosecurity institutions.

Main Topics: Health security as a bridge between public health and security: Inglesby argues the divide between medicine/public health and national security is artificial. Epidemics affect governance, politics, and resilience, so more cross-fertilization between these worlds is needed. Natural vs deliberate vs accidental biological risks: He distinguishes natural outbreaks, intentional misuse of biotechnology, and lab accidents, noting natural threats currently dominate but human-caused risks are growing as biotechnology becomes cheaper and more accessible. How to prioritize within health security: The discussion centers on scale, neglectedness, tractability, and return on investment. Inglesby stresses qualitative judgment, coalition-building, and choosing projects that can influence real policy windows. Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs): He agrees catastrophic scenarios deserve more attention but argues they should be tackled as part of the broader epidemic-response ecosystem, not as a separate zero-sum field. Policy and institutions: GHSA, BWC, and U.S. preparedness: The interview covers major policy mechanisms, especially the Global Health Security Agenda, the Biological Weapons Convention, and U.S. funding for hospitals, public health, and emergency response. Career pathways and workforce needs: Inglesby outlines routes into the field via public health, science, medicine, diplomacy, intelligence, and government fellowships, and highlights the value of deep expertise and multidisciplinary collaboration. Governance of emerging biotech and dual-use science: He discusses norms, self-governance, synthesis screening, national academies, and regulation as partial levers to reduce harmful misuse of powerful biotech tools.

Key Arguments: Natural pandemics remain the dominant risk today, but deliberate and accidental risks are rising as biotech becomes cheaper, more accessible, and more widely distributed. The best way to study catastrophic biological risks is not to detach them from ordinary public health, because the same systems, people, and countermeasures are shared across both. Qualitative judgment is often more useful than precise quantification because the field lacks enough data and the future risk environment is changing quickly. A narrow, crisis-only field would be politically fragile and hard to sustain; broader institutions and daily public health work give catastrophe-prevention efforts credibility and staying power. Regulation alone is insufficient and can backfire; effective biosecurity also requires norms, professional leadership, diplomacy, screening systems, and international coordination. There are already many actionable priorities: strengthen public health infrastructure, accelerate vaccines and therapeutics, improve lab norms, and support international coordination mechanisms. Career entry points exist across several domains, and people should choose based on the part of the problem they find most compelling: public health, policy, science, law, diplomacy, or intelligence.

Data Points: Center funding grant: $16 million - Open Philanthropy Project grant to Inglesby's center to expand global health security and pathogen-risk work. Annual publication output: 115+ publications - Inglesby's publications over the last 15 years. Global Health Security Agenda launch: 2014 - International initiative to improve countries' epidemic prevention, detection, and response capacities. Countries surveyed as meeting IHR commitments: about 1/3 - In 2014, only around a third of countries reported they could meet their international health regulation commitments. U.S. GHSA funding commitment: $1 billion over 5 years - U.S. investment supporting work in 39 countries. Countries supported by U.S. GHSA efforts: 39 - Countries where the U.S. GHSA-related work was carried out. H7N9 case fatality rate: ~40% - Example of a severe avian influenza with limited human-to-human spread. Seasonal flu case fatality rate: ~1 in 10,000 - Used as a contrast to show the severity of H7N9. Ebola response delay for U.S. emergency funding: >200 days - Example used to argue for a public health emergency response fund. Emerging Leaders Fellowship cohort size: 28 fellows/year - Annual fellowship intake for the biosecurity leadership program. Emerging Leaders Fellowship applicants: 100-110/year - Approximate yearly applicant pool for the fellowship. Global health security index cadence: every 2 years - Aspiration for the country-by-country index being developed with NTI and Economist Intelligence Unit.

Pivotal Quotes: "we should get more people who care deeply about global catastrophic events, but bring them into the larger field as opposed to creating a separate field" — Tom Inglesby: On whether GCBR work should be a distinct field or integrated into broader health security. "It's not easy to answer short and specifically." — Tom Inglesby: His response to questions about prioritization and what the field should focus on most. "it's constantly interesting and compelling work. It's like peeling back an onion" — Tom Inglesby: Final advice to listeners considering careers in health security and biosecurity.

Implications: Listeners interested in biosecurity should build deep expertise in a related field, then target roles in public health, government, diplomacy, science policy, or biotech governance. The field is still forming, so early entrants can shape norms, institutions, and funding priorities.

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