286. How Big is My Penis? (And Other Things We Ask Google)

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode examines Seth Stephens-Davidowitz’s thesis that Google search data reveals hidden truths about human behavior—especially beliefs, prejudices, sexuality, and anxiety—that surveys miss because people lie or self-censor. It focuses on his findings about anti-Muslim and racist searches, the limits of traditional polling, and how data can even inform political messaging.

Main Topics: Google searches as a window into hidden human behavior (Priority: 5/5): Stephens-Davidowitz argues that anonymous search queries expose desires, fears, and prejudices people won’t admit in surveys, making Google a uniquely honest behavioral dataset. Anti-Muslim sentiment and political backlash after terror attacks (Priority: 5/5): The episode analyzes how anti-Muslim searches spiked after attacks and during Obama’s speeches, suggesting that reassurance speeches can backfire if they lecture rather than redirect attention. Racial animus and the 2008 Obama election (Priority: 5/5): Using search data, Stephens-Davidowitz claims explicit racism materially reduced Obama’s vote share relative to white Democratic candidates and was stronger than survey data suggested. Limits of surveys and social desirability bias (Priority: 4/5): The conversation explains why people distort answers in surveys and why economists prefer revealed behavior over stated preferences. Everyday lying, sexuality, and private confession online (Priority: 4/5): Examples include exaggerated sex frequency, porn use, and strange Google queries, showing that online searches surface private truths people hide elsewhere. Data-driven persuasion and curiosity-based messaging (Priority: 4/5): Obama’s later mosque speech is presented as a case where describing Muslim Americans through positive, surprising examples may have reduced hateful searches more effectively than moral instruction.

Key Arguments: People are more honest with Google than with surveys because searches are private and instrumental, not socially performative. Search data can detect real-world behavior better than self-reports, including suicide, turnout, prejudice, and hate crimes. Anti-Muslim searches rose during and after Obama’s San Bernardino remarks, implying that well-intentioned unity speeches can inadvertently inflame hostile sentiment. Explicit racism likely played a larger role in Obama’s electoral disadvantage than many survey-based studies concluded. Lying is often habitual and strategic, which explains why people misreport behaviors like sex frequency, condom use, and pornography consumption. Google data may not explain everything about society, but it reveals blind spots in conventional research and public intuition. Curiosity-provoking descriptions of outgroups may be more effective than moralizing at reducing anger and prejudice.

Data Points: Men who are gay: about 5% - Opening examples of questions Stephens-Davidowitz claims to answer from data. Anti-Muslim searches during Obama speech: went up - Searches such as 'kill Muslims' and 'I hate Muslims' increased while Obama delivered his post-San Bernardino remarks. Obama-related racist search share on election night: 1% - Of Google searches containing 'Obama' on election night 2008, 1% also included either the N-word or KKK. Estimated vote loss from racism: about 4 percentage points - Stephens-Davidowitz estimates Obama lost roughly four points due to racial bias. Increased African-American turnout effect: 1 to 2 percentage points - He says Obama gained some votes from higher Black turnout, partially offsetting racist losses. Total searches for racist term: about 7 million - He says the N-word search volume in the period studied was not fringe and totaled millions of searches. Top state for racist searches: West Virginia - His mapping of explicit racism found the highest levels in West Virginia, not just the Deep South. Condoms sold annually in the U.S.: 600 million - Used to test whether self-reported sex frequency is inflated relative to market and pregnancy data. Men’s reported condom use: 1.6 billion heterosexual sexual encounters - Derived from survey answers, and shown to be inconsistent with condom sales data. Women’s reported condom use: 1.1 billion heterosexual sexual encounters - Also inconsistent with condom sales totals, indicating overreporting or reporting error. Pornography consumers who are women: about 20% - He notes women make up a significant share of porn views, contradicting assumptions about who watches pornography. Anti-Muslim searches after mosque speech: went down - After Obama’s Baltimore mosque speech emphasizing Muslim American contributions, hateful searches dropped.

Pivotal Quotes: "People just are in such a habit of lying in their day-to-day life." — Seth Stephens-Davidowitz: Explaining why survey answers often diverge from actual behavior and search queries. "I think that they'll be exaggerating how often they're having sex." — Seth Stephens-Davidowitz: His prediction when asked to compare anonymous listener answers with actual behavior. "Maybe lecturing people is not the best way to change their mind or to calm them down if they're enraged." — Seth Stephens-Davidowitz: His conclusion from the anti-Muslim search study and Obama’s later mosque speech.

Implications: The episode suggests researchers, marketers, and policymakers should rely more on behavioral data than self-reports. It also warns that public messaging can backfire, while curiosity and positive reframing may reduce prejudice more effectively.