Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Brian Kaplan argues that much of education functions as costly signaling rather than skill-building, so society overspends on schooling while individuals may still benefit privately. He defends vocational training, questions common education interventions, and extends the conversation to broader issues like totalitarianism, surveillance, immigration, and effective altruism, emphasizing that institutions should be judged by outcomes, not intentions.
Main Topics: Education as signaling vs human capital: Kaplan's core thesis is that schools primarily signal traits like conscientiousness and conformity to employers, rather than mostly building useful skills. He uses curriculum irrelevance, grade-seeking behavior, and forgetting as evidence. Sheepskin effects and empirical support: He discusses the large earnings jump from completing degrees versus simply accumulating years of schooling, arguing this fits a signaling model better than a pure learning model. Policy implications for schooling and vocational education: If education is mainly signaling, governments should reduce education spending, rethink subsidies, and place more value on vocational pathways and basic literacy/numeracy. Transfer learning, IQ gains, and the limits of general skills: Kaplan argues that broad transfer from schooling to general intelligence or other domains is weak; most learning is task-specific, and observed IQ gains may reflect test coaching or fade out. Totalitarianism, surveillance, and global coordination: He revisits his essay on totalitarianism, warning that mass surveillance, one-world coordination, and authoritarian scoring systems could stabilize oppressive regimes. Immigration and human rights: Kaplan presents open borders as his main cause, arguing that restrictions are morally wrong and that immigration reform is among the highest-impact neglected issues. Practical advice on degrees and careers: He advises listeners to optimize for completion probability, choose easy/high-return majors, avoid expensive schools unless necessary, and consider alternatives to college or grad school if success is unlikely.
Key Arguments: Most of education's private payoff comes from signaling ability and conformity to employers, not from skill acquisition. The curriculum itself is evidence for signaling because much of what is taught is rarely or never used in adult life. Students disproportionately care about easiness and credentials, not relevance, which is consistent with schools acting as filters. Sheepskin effects show big jumps at graduation, especially in high school and college, suggesting the diploma itself matters disproportionately. Ability controls reduce some estimates but do not eliminate the degree-completion premium; noncognitive controls remain weak. Vocational education is often better for both students and society because it teaches tangible, job-relevant skills. Education may raise measured IQ a bit, but much of that effect can be teaching to the test or fades out, and it does not explain most earnings gains. Cross-country claims that math/science education drives huge growth likely confound education with underlying intelligence or selection. Totalitarian regimes are fragile partly because outside comparison, military competition, and elite morale restrain them; technology and coordination could weaken those checks. Open borders is morally and economically compelling because it allows people to improve their own lives directly, rather than waiting for charity.
Data Points: High school signaling share (cautious estimate): 37% - Kaplan's estimate of how much of high school education's return is signaling under his cautious approach. Bachelor's degree signaling share: 60% - Kaplan says about 60% of the bachelor's degree return is signaling using his sheepskin-based estimate. Master's degree signaling share: about 75% - Kaplan's cautious estimate for master's degrees. Reasonable signaling estimate across schooling: 80% - His preferred broader estimate for signaling across educational levels. Sheepskin effect in high school: senior year worth about as much as the first three years combined - Average of studies Kaplan cites on degree completion premiums. Sheepskin effect in college: senior year worth about twice the first three years combined - Kaplan's summary of the college completion premium literature. Causal IQ gain from education: 1 to 5 points per year - Referenced meta-analysis discussed near the end of the interview. Earlier meta-analysis IQ gain: 1 to 3 points per year - Kaplan cites an earlier meta-analysis by Steve Ceci. STEM graduate job match: about 20% in STEM jobs - Kaplan cites U.S. Census-type evidence that only around one-fifth of STEM graduates work in STEM jobs. Engineers in engineering jobs: about half - He notes roughly half of engineering graduates work as engineers. Federal prison for immigration offenses: about 10% - Kaplan says immigration offenses make up a substantial share of federal prison. Education spending reform example: 25% reduction - He argues that reducing education funding by this scale would not produce chaos and may be plausible. Completion comparison: 1970s/early 1970s education levels about 2 years lower - He suggests the U.S. had somewhat less schooling in the early 1970s than today.
Pivotal Quotes: "if you go to school, if you were actually learning how to do new productive things, then your gain is society's gain. But if what you're doing is looking better than other people, then your gain is really the rest of society's loss." — Brian Kaplan: Explaining the social difference between human capital and signaling. "the best predictor of future performance is past performance" — Brian Kaplan: Advice on deciding whether students should go to college or graduate school. "I'd rather read one more empirical psych paper than another empirical econ paper." — Brian Kaplan: Discussing his respect for psychology research on transfer learning and general skills.
Implications: Listeners should focus on completion odds, major choice, and job relevance rather than prestige. More broadly, education policy, immigration, and anti-authoritarian work should be judged by actual outcomes, not status, intentions, or credential worship.