328: ‘The Warden’s Dilemma’, With Ben Thompson

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on two big themes: a practical fix for Apple TV/HDMI-CEC remote control issues on an LG OLED, and a long-form debate about the metaverse, especially whether VR or AR will matter most. The speakers connect Apple’s App Store antitrust troubles to platform control and then argue that VR may become compelling for work, while AR is more likely to be an extension of the phone.

Main Topics: Fixing HDMI-CEC / LG TV remote behavior (Priority: 5/5): The hosts discuss an LG OLED setup where the Apple TV remote could turn the TV off but not on, and a listener-supplied LG settings tweak (SIMPLINK, HDMI-CEC, auto power sync) restored one-remote control and input switching. Apple, app store power, and Epic injunction news (Priority: 5/5): They react to the latest Epic v. Apple ruling, including denial of Apple’s stay request, and argue Apple’s App Store policies have become legally and reputationally costly because the company waited too long to loosen rules. How the metaverse should be defined (Priority: 5/5): The hosts define the metaverse less as a separate product and more as the internet experienced primarily through VR, with multiple competing metaverses rather than one universal system. VR as a possible work platform (Priority: 4/5): One speaker becomes more bullish on VR after considering enterprise use: meetings, virtual desktop space, spatial audio, and the possibility of making remote work feel more like being in a room together. Why AR may be the more enduring consumer layer (Priority: 4/5): They compare AR to accessories and extensions around the phone—watch, AirPods, glasses—arguing it will likely be ubiquitous but subordinate to smartphones for a long time. Historical parallels: the internet, proprietary standards, and platform shifts (Priority: 4/5): They revisit the early internet, proprietary networking systems like AppleTalk and Novell, and the unusual political/technical conditions that allowed the open internet to win, arguing those conditions won’t repeat. Facebook/Meta and Microsoft’s metaverse strategies (Priority: 3/5): They compare Meta’s and Microsoft’s presentations, noting Meta’s demo leaned heavily on futuristic concept art while the most compelling ideas were the messy, real-world-feeling workroom and Teams-style enterprise use cases.

Key Arguments: The Apple TV issue was not a bad HDMI cable but a TV settings problem; enabling LG’s SIMPLINK/HDMI-CEC/auto power sync can restore one-remote control and automatic input switching. Apple’s App Store approach looks increasingly punitive and entitled; the company should have loosened rules years earlier, avoiding the legal and PR damage now arriving via Epic and other antitrust battles. The latest Epic ruling matters because it appears to require Apple to allow links for all apps, not just games or reader apps, which weakens Apple’s control over steering users to outside payments. The metaverse is better understood as the internet plus persistent, immersive presence—not a wholly separate realm. There will likely be multiple metaverses, not a single universal one, because platform owners will demand control and interoperability will not emerge naturally in a high-stakes commercial environment. VR is most plausible as a work technology because it can create presence in meetings and virtual desk space, especially for remote workers already spending their day online. AR is likely to be bigger as a consumer layer around the phone, because it complements existing behavior rather than replacing it. Apple is likely to dominate AR wearables the way it dominates the watch, because integration with the iPhone and tight hardware/software control are durable advantages. VR is less convincing for free-form movement or games that require walking around; it works better in seated, controller-based, or desktop-like contexts. The internet’s rise depended on a unique historical moment: postwar U.S. political unity, anti-communism, and little awareness of internet monetization or media disruption; that context won’t recur.

Data Points: Dithering subscription price: $5/month or $50/year - Mentioned during the promotion for the hosts’ short-form podcast. Episode length: 15 minutes - The hosts describe their usual Dithering format as exactly 15 minutes per episode. Epic injunction date: December 9 - Apple’s requested stay was denied, leaving the injunction timeline intact for now. Apple/App Store revenue split example: 85/15 - Discussed as Apple and Google shifting to more developer-friendly revenue splits for smaller developers or broadly on Android. Small business program revenue threshold: $1 million - Apple’s App Store small business program was criticized for creating a cliff at one million dollars in annual revenue. Google Play / Android split comparison: 85/15 - Used as an example of Google’s simpler approach compared with Apple’s small business program structure. Zoom usage scale: Nearly 40 million job seekers per week - From the LinkedIn Jobs sponsor read, describing LinkedIn’s audience scale. LinkedIn network size: 770 million people - From the LinkedIn Jobs sponsor read, describing the size of LinkedIn’s professional network. HelloFresh discount: Up to 14 free meals and 3 free gifts - From the HelloFresh sponsor read and promo code details. HelloFresh cost claim: Over 30% cheaper - Claimed savings versus grocery shopping when using pre-portioned meal kits.

Pivotal Quotes: "I think we have to establish as a rule that we're going to pretend those two episodes don't exist." — Speaker 1: Opening joke about resetting the discussion of the metaverse as if they had never covered it before. "links are a well-known technology" — Speaker 1: Summarizing the judge’s reasoning in the Epic v. Apple stay denial as reported live during the conversation. "I think the metaverse is the internet" — Speaker 2: Core definitional argument that the metaverse is not a separate universe but the internet experienced through immersive interfaces.

Implications: The conversation suggests Apple’s platform power faces growing legal and PR pressure, while the metaverse is likely to emerge as a set of platform-specific experiences. For listeners, the practical takeaway is that VR may matter most for work, and AR will probably arrive as an Apple-led phone accessory layer.