382: ‘What’s Happening‽’, With Craig Hockenberry

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The conversation centers on the six-month aftermath of Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter/X, highlighting the collapse of Twitter’s developer ecosystem, the loss of a major revenue stream for the Icon Factory, and the broader damage done by instability, branding changes, and poor support. The discussion expands into alternatives like Mastodon, Threads, Bluesky, and the importance of owning your own web presence, then shifts to iOS 17, widgets, standby mode, autocorrect, and Apple’s Vision Pro/visionOS possibilities.

Main Topics: Twitter/X as a damaged platform and business shock (Priority: 5/5): The hosts reflect on six months since Musk’s takeover, describing the financial harm to software developers and the ongoing instability of Twitter/X’s APIs, support, and product direction. Developer ecosystem collapse and API confusion (Priority: 5/5): They discuss broken scripts, deprecations, free-tier limits, lack of documentation updates, and the absurdity of both free and paying developers receiving poor support. Branding chaos and the Twitter-to-X rebrand (Priority: 4/5): The conversation criticizes the rushed, incomplete, and incoherent name change, including the renamed app, the building sign, and the loss of Twitter’s strong noun/verb brand language. Alternative social platforms and the value of decentralization (Priority: 4/5): They compare Mastodon, Threads, Bluesky, and Substack Notes, arguing that the Twitter disruption helped create a healthier marketplace of conversational tools. Apple ecosystem updates: iOS 17 widgets, standby, and autocorrect (Priority: 4/5): The hosts discuss interactive widgets, shortcut-driven actions, standby mode, and the much-improved iOS 17 autocorrect/autocomplete experience. Vision Pro and the future of spatial computing (Priority: 3/5): They speculate on visionOS development, the limits of first-generation hardware, and how the real use cases may emerge only after hands-on experience and iteration. Ownership, websites, and platform dependence (Priority: 4/5): They emphasize why companies and individuals should rely on their own websites via tools like Squarespace rather than depending entirely on volatile social platforms.

Key Arguments: Twitter’s change under Musk caused real financial harm, including roughly a third of the Icon Factory’s software income disappearing. The API and support situation is incoherent: even paying enterprise developers have difficulty getting help, and free-tier behavior is unpredictable. The rebrand from Twitter to X destroyed one of the strongest consumer-facing product names because Twitter had both noun and verb utility, plus a recognizable logo. Mastodon and Threads benefited from Twitter’s collapse, proving the disruption created room for viable alternatives. Owning your own website and domain is safer and more valuable than relying on platforms that can change overnight. iOS 17’s interactive widgets and new autocorrect meaningfully improve everyday workflows, especially on lock screens and standby screens. Vision Pro’s true value cannot be judged from simulators or short demos; real use will determine what software opportunities exist.

Data Points: Time since prior discussion: 6 months - They frame the episode as a biannual check-in after January’s discussion. Icon Factory software income loss: about one third - The Twitter/X changes caused a major hit to software revenue. Twitter API free-tier limit: 50 tweets/day - The speaker describes the free tier he appears to be on after his script resumed working. Twitter API free-tier limit: 1,500 tweets/month - He notes the monthly cap implied by the free tier. Payment for API access: $42,000/month - Some enterprise users reportedly pay this amount for API access without adequate support. Payment for API access: $20,000/month - Another developer forum example of high-cost paid access with no effective support. Payment for API access: $10,000/month - Additional enterprise pricing tier mentioned in the discussion. Backblaze standard price: $7/month - Advertised as unlimited backup for Mac or PC. Backblaze retention add-on: $2/month - Adds one year of extended file retention history. Backblaze data under management: 2 exabytes - Used to illustrate the scale of the backup service. Backblaze files restored: 55 billion files - Stated as the number of files restored for customers. Apple App Store editor’s choice requirements: minimum 2 characters for app name not applicable to X app identity - They note X’s app lost its editor’s choice and search results are polluted by unrelated apps. Temperature in Tucson: over 115°F - Referenced as extreme heat during a recent trip. Surface temperature of asphalt in extreme heat: 180°F - Cited as the pavement temperature in very hot conditions. Upload/backup service trial length: 15 days - Backblaze free trial length with no credit card required.

Pivotal Quotes: "I concluded that original blog post saying that it was going to become a $44 billion version of MySpace." — Craig: A summary of his view that Twitter was headed toward collapse after Musk’s takeover. "The thing that we love is in danger." — Craig: He describes the emotional and financial impact of Twitter/X on his business. "If Apple doesn’t soon ship a foldable phone, there’ll be no reason to buy an iPhone." — John: A provocative comment about the limits of current iPhone innovation and clickbait culture.

Implications: The episode suggests that platform volatility can destroy businesses, while also accelerating competitors and reinforcing the need for owned infrastructure. It also points to a near-term future where Apple’s interaction design gains matter more than hardware novelty.