407: ‘Pinkie Swear’, With Chance Miller

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Apple’s evolving relationship with 9to5Mac, the ongoing Apple Watch blood oxygen sensor patent dispute, and how Apple is responding to the EU’s DMA with browser choice screens, app deletability, and default-app changes. The hosts debate whether Apple’s compliance is meaningful or mostly cosmetic, and preview likely iPhone 16, Apple Watch, AirPods, and iPad mini announcements at the upcoming Apple event.

Main Topics: Apple’s use of 9to5Mac for sensitive breaking news (Priority: 5/5): Chance Miller explains how Apple increasingly shares high-stakes stories with 9to5Mac—especially ones Apple doesn’t want on Newsroom, such as the Apple Watch blood oxygen sensor dispute. The discussion frames this as both a recognition of 9to5Mac’s reporting stature and a strategic choice by Apple PR. Apple Watch blood oxygen sensor patent dispute (Priority: 5/5): They unpack the ITC ruling, the Biden administration’s refusal to veto it, Apple’s software workaround in the U.S., and the possibility of a settlement before the September event. The ban has implications for existing watches, replacements, and rumored new health features. EU DMA browser choice screen and default-app changes (Priority: 5/5): A long discussion explores Apple’s revised browser choice screen, randomized browser ordering, scrolling behavior, and the requirement to re-pick Safari in some cases. They also cover the ability to change more defaults and delete more built-in apps under EU rules. Whether DMA compliance changes the iPhone experience in practice (Priority: 4/5): The hosts argue that many EU changes may be more annoying than transformative. They question whether the DMA is actually shifting user behavior or just forcing UI changes, fees debates, and confusing workflows that mostly affect edge cases. Upcoming Apple event predictions (Priority: 4/5): They preview expected September announcements: iPhone 16 lineup changes, a new camera button, new colors, watch updates, AirPods refreshes, and possible iPad mini refresh. They also discuss how Apple may handle Apple Intelligence and iPhone Mirroring if they remain unavailable in the EU. Apple’s fee structure and future DMA conflicts (Priority: 4/5): Beyond the browser screen, they focus on the bigger unresolved issue: Apple’s Core Technology Fee and other marketplace charges. They suggest the EU may eventually challenge these as incompatible with DMA goals, especially if they discourage alternative distribution.

Key Arguments: Apple reportedly chose 9to5Mac for the Apple Watch blood oxygen story because it wanted the news out strategically, not as a Newsroom post, and to maximize pressure on policymakers. The Apple Watch blood oxygen feature is not essential for most users, so Apple has less incentive to settle the dispute quickly than it would for core features like cellular connectivity. The EU browser choice screen is intended to reduce Safari’s default advantage, but in practice it may mostly funnel confused users toward Chrome, benefiting Google more than competition overall. Changing app defaults and making Apple apps deletable sounds pro-choice, but the practical value is unclear for functions like photos, camera, messaging, and dialing, where system-level behavior still matters. Apple’s DMA compliance may be more cosmetic than transformative so far; the real test will be whether alternative app marketplaces and fee structures meaningfully change developer behavior. Apple Intelligence and iPhone Mirroring may be delayed or withheld in the EU because Apple may not want to re-engineer system-level features to fit DMA rules or allow third-party substitution at that depth. The upcoming event is likely to emphasize predictable hardware updates rather than radical changes, with the camera button and AI timing being the most notable marketing and messaging challenges.

Data Points: Apple Watch sales workaround period: through December 24 at midnight - Apple reportedly kept selling affected Apple Watches until Christmas Eve despite the dispute. ITC/ban timing: about a week for Biden administration veto consideration - Apple and 9to5Mac broke the story while the administration still had a short window to act. EU browser choice screen: 11 browsers - Apple’s revised browser selection screen lists 11 browsers per country. EU member states: 27 - Apple’s browser lists are customized by EU country. Core Technology Fee: 50 cents per download per year - Discussed as Apple’s fee structure for alternative app distribution and why it may deter developers. App marketplace scale: up to 1 million monthly active users free tier - Mentioned as part of WorkOS sponsor copy, not the podcast discussion. Apple event date: September 10 - The upcoming Apple launch event discussed in the episode. Apple Intelligence availability: not in iOS 18.0 - They note that Apple Intelligence won’t ship in the initial iPhone software release. AirPods lineup rumor: 2 versions of AirPods 4 - Reportedly one lower-end model and one higher-end model will replace AirPods 2 and 3. Apple Watch Series 10 rumor: 45 mm and 49 mm sizes - They discuss rumors that the standard Apple Watch sizes may increase, with one version approaching Ultra size. iPad mini update cycle: last updated in September 2021 - Used to argue a new mini could plausibly appear at the iPhone event.

Pivotal Quotes: "the biggest one is probably the Apple Watch ban thing" — Chance Miller: Chance identifies the most important example of Apple choosing 9to5Mac for exclusive news. "I think overall, I think Apple is sort of winning this DMA fight over compliance" — Host: Summarizes the episode’s thesis that Apple’s EU compliance changes may not be materially reshaping the platform. "the single biggest beneficiary of this choice screen is Google and Chrome" — Host: A key criticism of the EU browser-choice design, arguing it may strengthen Chrome more than competition.

Implications: Apple’s EU compliance may continue to look substantial on paper but modest in user impact. The bigger battleground is likely fee policy and system-level features like Apple Intelligence, iPhone Mirroring, and third-party engines, not just browser screens.