#495 — Foreign Policy for Sale

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Anne Applebaum argues that Trump’s second-term foreign policy is less traditional diplomacy than a revolutionary, corruption-friendly project that replaces institutions with loyalists, ideologues, and profit-seekers. She says this has distorted U.S. relations with Europe, encouraged alliances with far-right parties, and weakened trust in NATO and American commitments, while Russia’s war on Ukraine and broader European insecurity drive a new rearmament era.

Main Topics: Trump-era foreign policy as a revolutionary project (Priority: 5/5): Applebaum frames the administration as dismantling long-standing diplomatic institutions and replacing them with loyalists, ideologues, business figures, and grifters, rather than pursuing normal statecraft. U.S. support for European far-right movements (Priority: 5/5): She argues that American actors are cultivating ties with far-right parties in Europe, often because of shared anti-regulatory, nationalist, or civilizational agendas, and sometimes to undermine existing governments or the EU. Corruption, crypto, and tech interests in foreign policy (Priority: 4/5): Applebaum says ideological alignment is reinforced by business incentives, with crypto and tech actors backing anti-regulation politicians and benefiting from the erosion of oversight. Europe’s rearmament and the Russian threat (Priority: 5/5): She contends Europe is rearming mainly because of a real, escalating Russian threat, not because Trump cleverly pushed it, and that Europe increasingly sees the U.S. as unreliable. Ukraine war dynamics and battlefield change (Priority: 5/5): The conversation describes a drone-saturated frontline, high Russian casualties, intensified bombardment of Ukrainian civilians, and Ukraine’s growing long-range strike capability against Russian refineries. Uncertainty about NATO and Article V (Priority: 4/5): Applebaum notes that while European leaders avoid saying so publicly, many privately doubt whether the U.S. would honor NATO commitments in a crisis involving ambiguous Russian aggression. U.S. posture toward authoritarianism in Latin America (Priority: 3/5): The closing reference to Venezuela suggests a broader pattern: the U.S. is not restoring rule of law but partnering with criminal or authoritarian actors for advantage.

Key Arguments: The current administration’s foreign policy is not normal conservatism or realism; it is a revolutionary attempt to dismantle existing institutions and replace them with a new ruling network. Support for far-right European parties is tied not only to ideology but to anti-regulation, pro-business, and anti-EU interests, especially among tech and crypto allies. Many European countries are not experiencing the open-borders panic claimed by far-right narratives; the actual security issue is Russia’s aggression. The AFD is described as pro-Russian, containing neo-Nazis, and seeking to destabilize Germany and the EU rather than protect liberal civilization. Europe’s rearmament is driven primarily by Russia’s threat and by the loss of confidence in the U.S. as a reliable partner. The war in Ukraine has evolved into a drone-dominated killing zone where movement is highly visible and Russian advances are largely stalled. Russia is also escalating attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, mirroring tactics used in Chechnya and Syria. Ukraine has developed significant long-range strike capacity and is damaging Russian refining capacity at scale. There is growing private skepticism in Europe that Article V would be enforced if Russia staged a deniable or ambiguous attack. U.S. engagement in places like Venezuela appears, in Applebaum’s framing, to align with criminal or authoritarian interests rather than democratic reform.

Data Points: Frontline width in Ukraine: 20–30 kilometers - Applebaum describes the no-man’s-land where drones can observe and target nearly any movement. Russian casualties: Thousands per month - She says repeated Russian assaults into the visible drone zone are producing massive killed and wounded figures. Russian refining capacity damaged: Approximately 30–40% - She cites Ukrainian strikes as having taken out a large share of Russia’s refining capability. Range of Ukrainian strikes: About 1,000 miles from the border - She notes Ukraine can hit refineries deep inside Russia, including around Moscow. Timeframe for European rearmament awareness: About a decade - She says Europe now sees the world very differently from how it did ten years ago. Historical duration of U.S. diplomatic norms: 70–100 years - She says the administration is discarding ways of doing business Americans have maintained for decades.

Pivotal Quotes: "this is a revolutionary project" — Anne Applebaum: She describes the broader Trump-aligned effort to replace institutions and norms with a new ideological coalition. "the United States is not the guarantor of stability, or even it's not even about military security. The United States is not a reliable partner" — Anne Applebaum: She explains why Europe is rearming and why trust in U.S. commitments has eroded. "the U.S. is not fixing the criminality or bringing the rule of law, what the U.S. is doing instead is partnering with the criminals and seeking to benefit from it" — Anne Applebaum: She summarizes her broader concern that American policy is enabling corruption and authoritarian actors.

Implications: Listeners are left with a warning that U.S. foreign policy is being reshaped by ideology, corruption, and transactional alliances, weakening democratic institutions, NATO credibility, and European security while prolonging instability in Ukraine and beyond.