498. In the 1890s, the Best-Selling Car Was … Electric

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode traces the electric car’s 100+ year false start, showing how battery limits, business models, gender norms, and path dependence kept EVs niche until lithium-ion batteries, climate pressures, and Tesla revived them. It argues that technology adoption is shaped as much by economics and society as by invention, and that the EV shift will disrupt labor, grids, and supply chains.

Main Topics: The electric car’s forgotten history (Priority: 5/5): Standage explains that EVs predate gasoline cars and were even the best-selling vehicle in 1897, but early batteries were weak and slow to charge, preventing mass adoption. Why gasoline won (Priority: 5/5): Internal combustion engines outcompeted steam and electric cars because gasoline became an efficient fuel source, cars had better range/performance, and incumbents optimized around the technology. False starts and technology adoption (Priority: 4/5): The episode broadens the EV story into a general theory of innovation: many technologies take decades to become viable, and social, financial, and infrastructural conditions matter as much as invention. Tesla, lithium-ion, and the return of EVs (Priority: 5/5): Modern EV success is tied to battery breakthroughs driven by laptops and smartphones, not the auto industry, enabling Tesla’s rise from a niche startup to a dominant EV brand. GM’s EV1 and the limits of early commercialization (Priority: 4/5): GM’s leased EV1 program showed real consumer enthusiasm but failed to scale due to battery shortcomings, business-model problems, and the company’s fear of highlighting the drawbacks of its gas vehicles. Future impacts of electrification (Priority: 5/5): The discussion covers job losses and new jobs, smarter grids, battery recycling, mineral sourcing, and the possibility that EVs will reshape transportation without solving the entire climate problem.

Key Arguments: Technological superiority alone does not determine adoption; business models, infrastructure, and public perception can block even promising innovations. The electric car was not a modern invention but an old technology that lost out because batteries were too weak and expensive for early use. Gasoline vehicles won partly because oil produced gasoline as a useful byproduct, while early EV efforts lacked a scalable ecosystem. Incumbent firms often fail to lead disruptive innovation because they are optimized for existing products and reluctant to undermine their own profitable lines. Lithium-ion batteries, developed largely for consumer electronics, finally made practical EVs possible by improving range, weight, and acceleration. The EV transition will create winners and losers: fewer repair jobs for combustion engines, more jobs in charging infrastructure, and new supply-chain vulnerabilities. Electric cars are helpful for decarbonization, but they are not a standalone climate solution because transport is only one part of global emissions.

Data Points: Average U.S. gas price: well over $4 per gallon - Described as current backdrop for interest in electric cars Year-over-year gas price increase: roughly 50% - U.S. average gas price compared with last year Recent weekly gas price jump: nearly 49 cents - Spike cited during the intro Share of cars in the U.S. that are electric: fewer than 1% - Current EV penetration mentioned early in the episode New York horse population: about 200,000 horses - 1890s urban transport problem caused by horse manure Manure produced per horse per day: about 24 pounds - Illustrates waste burden of horse-based transport Number of pieces in EV drive chain: about 30 - Compared with about 5,000 parts in gasoline cars Number of pieces in gasoline car drive chain: about 5,000 - Used to show mechanical simplicity advantage of EVs Early EV range: maybe 80 miles - Battery limitations in the first wave of electric cars GM EV1 fleet size: around 1,000 cars - Vehicles leased mainly in California U.S. EV sales last year: more than half a million - GM sales mentioned as evidence of current market growth Year GM sold more than 500,000 EVs: last year - Illustrates rapid recent growth EV share of global emissions: about 17% - Road vehicles’ contribution to global carbon emissions EV use rate: about 4% of the time - Used to argue the grid impact may be smaller than assumed Microchips per EV: more than 1,000 - Compared with about 100 in an internal combustion engine car Microchips per gas car: around 100 - Highlights semiconductor intensity of EVs Tesla valuation: more than a trillion dollars - Used to show market belief in future EV dominance Tesla output: fewer than one million cars a year - Contrasted with legacy automakers’ production volumes GM output: more than six million cars a year - Compared with Tesla’s smaller production scale

Pivotal Quotes: "It took COVID-19 to concentrate enough attention and resources onto this technology to make it viable." — Tal Zaks: Explaining why mRNA vaccines finally succeeded after decades of research "The reason that Elon Musk succeeds where Thomas Edison fails is because the battery technology has moved on." — Tom Standage: Summarizing why modern EVs are finally practical "I think this is a transition that's actually going to happen faster than people think it is." — Tom Standage: Predicting the pace of the shift to electric vehicles

Implications: The EV shift is likely to accelerate, but it will reshape jobs, supply chains, and energy systems rather than simply replacing gas cars one-for-one. Listeners should expect broader technological and social change, not just a new drivetrain.