561. How to Succeed at Failing, Part 1: The Chain of Events

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode launches Freakonomics Radio’s “How to Succeed at Failing” series by arguing that failure is not a single event but a chain of preventable breakdowns. Through wildfire evacuation, school shootings, relationships, innovation, and organizational learning, it contrasts productive risk-taking with unacceptable failures and explores how societies can better detect, report, and learn from them.

Main Topics: Failure as a chain of events, not a single moment (Priority: 5/5): Ed Gallia frames disasters like Lahaina, school shootings, and crowd crushes as cumulative breakdowns where multiple preventable errors align. This reframes tragedy as an analyzable failure rather than an unavoidable act of fate. How people and organizations learn—or fail to learn—from mistakes (Priority: 5/5): Amy Edmondson and Gary Klein discuss why people dislike, confuse, and fear failure, and why organizations often hide mistakes instead of studying them. The segment argues for systematic sharing of failures to improve learning. Innovation, risk, and the economics of failure (Priority: 4/5): John Van Reenen describes the market economy as an experimentation machine in which most ideas fail. He links greater tolerance for failure—especially in the U.S.—to higher entrepreneurship and innovation. Personal failure and the emotional reality of relationships (Priority: 3/5): Helen Fisher and Amy Edmondson discuss failed romantic relationships, divorce, abandonment, and how personal and professional failures overlap emotionally and psychologically. Gendered differences in permission to fail (Priority: 4/5): Amy Edmondson argues women often face an unequal license to fail, making them more risk-averse in classrooms and workplaces because they fear social judgment more than men do. School shootings as preventable crisis chains (Priority: 5/5): David Reedman presents school shootings as events with many opportunities for interruption, advocating national crisis-response infrastructure, red-flag systems, and better guidance for school officials. Compassion and intervention as the way to break destructive paths (Priority: 4/5): Aaron Stark and Reedman emphasize that humane connection, not just security fortification, can interrupt violent trajectories before they culminate in catastrophe.

Key Arguments: Failures should be understood as chains of events; if one link is broken, the disaster may be prevented. Organizations and individuals avoid learning from failure because shame, fear, and social incentives discourage open discussion. Failure is sometimes necessary and even beneficial in innovation because most ideas do not work, but society gains from the few that succeed. Not all failure should be celebrated: some domains—air travel, school safety, mass violence prevention—require near-zero tolerance for error. The U.S. may have more entrepreneurial success partly because it culturally tolerates failure more than Europe does. Women may under-participate in risk-taking environments because they have less social permission to be wrong. School shootings are often preceded by observable warning signs, meaning better reporting and response systems could prevent many attacks. Human compassion and direct intervention can interrupt violent or self-destructive trajectories before they become irreversible.

Data Points: Deaths in Lahaina wildfire: at least 97 - Fatalities reported after the Maui County wildfire destroyed Lahaina Missing persons in Lahaina wildfire: about a dozen - Residents still missing after the fire Buildings destroyed in Lahaina: more than 2,000 - Most were homes Wind gusts in Maui County: over 70 miles an hour - Conditions that intensified the wildfire Teenagers surveyed about relationship abandonment: 95% - Reported having dumped someone who really loved them Teenagers surveyed about being dumped: 93% - Reported having been dumped by someone they really loved School shooting incidents recorded: more than 2,600 - David Reedman’s database of U.S. school shootings since 1966 Deaths in school shooting database: 1,000 deaths - Recorded across incidents since 1966 Google alerts reviewed daily by Reedman: about 30 - Part of the ongoing maintenance of the school shooting database Time spent on database work: 40 hours a week - Reedman’s weekly effort updating and coding incidents Budget of National Poison Control Center: $25 million per year - Used as a model for a proposed national crisis center Estimated school physical security spending: $3 billion - Compared with the Poison Control Center budget Oxford High School shooting charges: 24 charges - Shooter pleaded guilty, including four counts of first-degree murder Oxford High School murder counts: 4 counts of first-degree murder - Charges related to the four students killed Death threats received by Reedman: multiple threats - He reports receiving explicit threats for documenting school shootings

Pivotal Quotes: "A failure is not just about the tragic moment. It's a chain of events." — Ed Gallia: Explaining why disasters like wildfires should be analyzed as preventable sequences "Failure is bad. I just want to read back what I think is the best quote I've ever heard from an HBS professor." — Amy Edmondson: Rejecting simplistic Silicon Valley slogans like 'fail fast, fail often' "Until you reach the end, you can still be pulled off of it." — Aaron Stark: Describing how human connection interrupted his path toward committing a school shooting

Implications: The episode argues for stronger systems that detect risk early, share mistakes openly, and intervene humanely. For industries and institutions, learning from failure requires moving beyond slogans to concrete infrastructure, accountability, and compassion.