Accidental Tech Podcast
Accidental Tech Podcast

569: Do Grasshoppers Have Tongues?

* Pre-show: Dad Dreams * Follow-up: * New watch bands will actually be… cases? (via Videoalex) * Swatch example * NATO straps * Time-shifting was successful * OLED iPad Pros will also break the bank * Apple 🤝 AWS * Retrieval Augmented Generation * How LLMs work * People… write answers for Alexa‽ 🤯 *

Featured Speakers

Marco Arment, Casey Liss, John Siracusa Host

Topics Discussed

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on power outages, backup power tradeoffs, and a long, detailed discussion of Apple Vision Pro’s launch, pricing, accessories, app ecosystem, and developer implications. The hosts compare battery backups vs generators, then debate Vision Pro’s design choices, how it will be used, whether it resembles prior Apple launches, and why developers may need real hardware to build for it well.

Main Topics: Storm-related power backup experiences: The hosts compare solar/power-wall backup with a gas generator during storm-caused outages, highlighting convenience, limitations, and the practical stress of emergency power setups. Vision Pro launch details and accessories: They review Apple’s announced launch date, preorders, prescriptions, included accessories, demos, and the product’s unusually complete in-box experience for a new Apple category. Vision Pro pricing and market positioning: The group debates rumors of a $1,500–$2,000 starting price, arguing that the market may tolerate premium pricing but that the real question is whether the product justifies it for consumers. Vision Pro design, comfort, and physical tradeoffs: They discuss the headset’s size, weight, front display, strap options, light seals, and the likelihood that comfort and fit will dominate early feedback and revisions. App ecosystem and developer strategy: A major segment focuses on whether apps should be built for Vision Pro now, how iPad apps compare with Mac-like workflows, and why simulators are insufficient for serious development. Comparisons to the original iPhone launch: The hosts argue over whether Vision Pro’s reception resembles the iPhone’s early hype cycle, with differing views on mainstream interest, carrier constraints, and consumer urgency. Apple’s App Store naming and screenshot rules: They react to Apple’s strict guidance about naming, terminology, and allowed marketing language for Vision Pro apps, finding the instructions both meticulous and absurdly Apple-like.

Key Arguments: Solar/battery backup is far easier and quieter than a gas generator because it requires no fuel handling, setup, or noise, though it still has limitations. A UPS may fail to recognize power from a battery-backed system if the voltage or grounding behavior differs from grid power. Vision Pro’s starting price rumors seem likely to be exaggerated or highly dependent on storage tiers, but Apple could still position it as a premium niche product. Apple may be able to justify higher Vision Pro pricing if the iPad Air absorbs more mainstream features and the Pro line becomes more explicitly high-end. The headset’s fit and comfort are likely to be highly individualized, which is why Apple shipping two strap options makes sense as a stopgap. Developers cannot rely on simulators alone for Vision Pro; real hardware is needed to understand ergonomics, window placement, and the true interaction model. Mac-style multitasking feels like a more natural conceptual fit for Vision Pro than iPad-style apps, though the hosts disagree on how that will play out in practice. Apple’s current App Store guidance suggests it is trying to tightly control the product’s branding and perceived category before public perception hardens. Vision Pro is more likely to launch as a slow-growing, niche platform than as an immediate mass-market hit, even if it sells out initially. For many early adopters, the appeal is not strict utility but coolness, novelty, and the ability to participate in a new Apple platform.

Data Points: Power outage duration: 4 hours - The speaker described a storm-related outage that his solar and battery backup handled successfully. Generator runtime / concern: 18 hours - He contrasted battery backup with the stress of running a gas generator long enough to drain fuel safely after power returns. Solar production on a great summer day: 90 kilowatt hours - Used to illustrate how much power the solar setup can generate in ideal conditions. Solar production on a terrible January day: 20 kilowatt hours - Used to show that solar still produces meaningful power even in poor winter conditions. Vision Pro launch date: February 2 - Apple announced the Vision Pro launch date. Preorder date: January 19 - Apple said orders would open on Friday, January 19. Prescription reader inserts: $100 - Apple’s listed price for reader-style optical inserts. Prescription optical inserts: $150 - Apple’s listed price for full prescription optical inserts. Vision Pro RAM: 16 GB - Bloomberg reported the headset would ship with 16 gigabytes of memory. OLED iPad Pro rumored starting price: $1,500 - Rumored starting price for the 11-inch model discussed from MacRumors/Korean sourcing. OLED iPad Pro rumored higher-end price: $2,000+ - Rumored upper starting price range for the new OLED iPad Pro models. Current 11-inch iPad Pro starting price: $800 - Used as the comparison point for the rumored OLED pricing. Current 12.9-inch iPad Pro starting price: $1,100 - Used as the comparison point for the rumored OLED pricing. Apple 27-inch 5K monitor price: $1,600 - Cited as a reference point for judging the rumored OLED iPad Pro pricing. Potential Vision Pro storage add-on: $2,200 - The hosts noted Apple’s extreme pricing for top-tier storage could push configurations far higher. Early open-source LLM context window: 512 tokens - Mentioned while discussing Apple’s interest in smaller LLMs and Siri-like systems. Modern open-source LLM context window: 32,000 tokens - Cited using Meta Llama 2 as an example of rapid progress. Approximate word capacity of 32,000 tokens: 25,000 words - The speaker translated token count into approximate words/pages. Approximate page range for 32,000 tokens: 15–100 pages - Used to explain the effective context depth for larger models. Vision Pro battery life implication: Short runtime implied - The discussion emphasized the need for an external battery and the product’s limited untethered endurance. Vision Pro store demos: First weekend only - The hosts discussed Apple’s plan to offer demos at retail stores at launch, apparently only for the opening weekend.

Pivotal Quotes: "If it is possible to have a non-immersive video player, and then you can slide call sheet right next to it, you're looking at a video and looking at call sheet at the same time. You know, mind exploding." — Casey: Developer discussion about why the Vision Pro could be compelling for a companion app like Call Sheet. "Don't even bother doing it now, do it when you have the hardware. And definitely get the hardware. Like, you're going to need it. You're not going to be able to make a good app with simulators alone." — Marco: Advice to developers building for Vision Pro, emphasizing that the simulator is insufficient. "It's not the iPhone, it's iPhone. It's not the iPad, it's iPad. It's not the Apple Vision Pro, it's Apple Vision Pro." — John: Reaction to Apple’s naming conventions and app-store terminology rules.

Implications: Listeners are left with a clear picture that Vision Pro is likely to be an expensive, early-adopter platform with real potential but significant uncertainty. For developers, real hardware will be essential. For consumers, the first wave may be driven more by curiosity and status than necessity.

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