98. We the Sheeple

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode explores Brian Kaplan’s thesis that democratic voters are often irrational in the sense of being poorly informed, emotionally driven, and prone to policy errors despite generally voting unselfishly. Through examples like college subsidies, job creation, and tax policy, the discussion argues that politicians succeed by appealing to public biases rather than correcting them, while Levitt adds that voting is mostly expressive, not decisive.

Main Topics: The Myth of the Rational Voter (Priority: 5/5): Brian Kaplan explains his core argument: democracies often choose bad policies because voters misunderstand economics and are swayed by emotion, even if they are not purely selfish. Make-work bias and job creation (Priority: 5/5): The conversation critiques the common belief that more jobs are always better, arguing that policy should prioritize productivity and output rather than employment alone. Voter motivations are often unselfish but poorly informed (Priority: 4/5): Kaplan says voters are shockingly unselfish in practice, but that goodwill is undermined by mistaken beliefs about what policies actually help society. Political messaging and electoral incentives (Priority: 4/5): The transcript argues politicians are highly competent at reading public desires and framing messages to match what voters want to hear, not what is most economically sound. College affordability and higher education policy (Priority: 4/5): Obama’s push to make college more affordable is discussed as popular campaign material but potentially inefficient if it encourages marginal students to attend without completing degrees. Tax cuts, spending cuts, and entitlement politics (Priority: 4/5): Romney’s anti-tax message is contrasted with voters’ contradictory views: they want lower spending in general but resist cuts to specific popular programs, especially entitlements. Why people vote at all (Priority: 5/5): Levitt argues voting is mostly expressive and social, not consequential, and that people vote to signal identity, feel involved, or claim moral satisfaction.

Key Arguments: Democracy can produce bad policy not because citizens are selfish, but because they are confused about economics and public policy. Voters often favor more spending in the abstract but oppose cuts to actual programs, making political promises about spending reduction structurally deceptive. Jobs are not an economic goal by themselves; policies should be judged by productivity and long-term output, not just employment levels. Encouraging more people to attend college may sound good politically, but it can waste resources if many students do not finish and gain the payoff from a degree. Politicians are not incompetent in a general sense; they are highly competent at emotional persuasion and coalition-building. Most people do not vote because they think their ballot will decide the election; they vote for expression, identity, and social reasons. Mandatory voting may worsen democratic outcomes because it compels participation from uninterested or uninformed citizens.

Data Points: Deficit reduction plan: $4 trillion - Kaplan cites independent experts saying his plan would reduce the deficit by this amount. Jobs created under plan: 12 million new jobs - Kaplan claims his plan would create this many jobs. Manufacturing jobs target: 1 million new manufacturing jobs in four years - A stated goal discussed as part of the economic campaign pitch. Presidential election turnout: less than 60% - Referenced as the typical U.S. turnout rate in presidential elections. College completion trend: large rise in starters, flat completion rate - Used to argue that making college cheaper may increase enrollment without improving graduation outcomes. Public spending preferences: lower spending overall but more spending in nearly every category - Kaplan says voter attitudes on spending are contradictory.

Pivotal Quotes: "I will not raise taxes on the middle class of America." — Obama (campaign speech excerpt): Opening political pitch on fiscal policy and deficit reduction. "The worst possible thing is to have people who have good motives but bad understanding." — Brian Kaplan: Central statement of his critique of democratic decision-making. "It's fun to vote. It's expressive. And it's a way to say the kind of person you are." — Steve Levitt: Explains why people vote despite near-zero decisiveness of any single ballot.

Implications: The episode suggests that elections reward emotional simplicity over policy accuracy, so listeners should be skeptical of popular campaign promises and assess policies by outcomes, not slogans. It also implies turnout and participation may reflect identity more than civic efficacy.