a16z Podcast: Pulse Check on Consumer Tech Trends 2019, CES and Beyond

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky frame CES as a place to read the tech supply chain and spot experiments rather than consumer-ready products. They argue that the most important shifts are in screens, smart-home components, and content distribution, but that many flashy demos are premature or empty. The episode emphasizes how component commoditization enables rapid iteration, while markets like TV and smart home remain unresolved and fragmented.

Main Topics: Why CES matters (Priority: 5/5): CES is presented as three overlapping shows: big-platform announcements, a dense back-hall ecosystem of small companies hustling, and a component/parts marketplace where the real industry plumbing is revealed. Display innovation and the end of failed form factors (Priority: 5/5): The hosts note the disappearance of curved TVs and 3D TVs, while flexible OLED and arbitrarily shaped LCD/OLED panels point to a future where screens adapt to products instead of dictating design. TV and streaming fragmentation (Priority: 5/5): They argue the TV industry is in a messy transition from linear TV to on-demand apps, with content companies pulling into direct-to-consumer services and no clear aggregator winning the discovery problem. Smart home: real utility vs. gimmicks (Priority: 5/5): They separate useful, standardized smart-home categories like alarms and locks from overhyped voice-controlled workflows, arguing that connectivity is often easy while coherent consumer value remains unclear. The role of chip vendors and component suppliers (Priority: 4/5): Many smart devices are enabled by smartphone-derived components, and the real aggregation layer is often the chip supplier, not the branded device maker. Alexa, Google Assistant, and HomeKit as connective tissue (Priority: 4/5): Voice assistants are useful as a first step and a sales channel, but the hosts question whether they solve the harder problem of making devices actually interoperable and valuable. CES as experimentation and transaction, not consumer truth (Priority: 4/5): The show is a mix of serious B2B purchasing, prototype experimentation, and founder hustle; dismissing gimmicks misses the process of discovering which ideas will survive.

Key Arguments: CES is valuable because it exposes what the supply chain can now make, not because it reliably reveals consumer demand. Curved TVs and 3D TVs show that hype-heavy formats can disappear quickly when consumers do not adopt them. Flexible OLED and custom-shaped LCDs suggest a major manufacturing shift: screens can now fit products, not just be rectangular panels. TV is being unbundled into many direct-to-consumer apps, but discovery and aggregation remain unsolved, making the consumer experience unstable. Smart-home categories like locks and alarms succeed when incumbents leverage manufacturing, regulations, and route-to-market advantages. Voice assistants lower integration friction, but they often provide only a shallow command layer rather than a coherent product experience. HomeKit’s requirements were too strict for the market, while Alexa/Google integrations were too easy, leading to lots of logos but limited usefulness. The real power in connected devices may sit with chip vendors and middleware suppliers, who can enable features across many hardware brands. Many CES products are experiments that help the industry discover what should become standardized and widely adopted.

Data Points: Estimated steps walked: 120,000 steps / roughly two marathons - The hosts describe their combined walking across CES CES timing and buying cycle: January; serves a year-ahead or two-years-ahead product cycle - They explain why the show happens after the major sales quarter Size of LG rollable TV unit: about a quarter the size of a sideboard; box about 12 inches square - Description of LG’s roll-up OLED display base Samsung modular screen blocks: 12-inch squares - They describe Samsung's 'The Wall' OLED blocks Alexa device count: 100 million devices - Amazon’s stated figure for devices with Alexa on them Smart-home logos integration effort: about five lines of code - How easy the assistant integrations appear for many device makers Alarm system setup time: about an hour - ADT-style perimeter alarm installation with sensors and base station Smart-home security vendors on shelf: one of 50 or one of 5 - Competition level for connected cameras and alarm devices in retail CES design/build hallway length: about a mile long - The component hall concentrated around parts suppliers French/Taiwanese/indie back-hall booths: hundreds to thousands of small companies - The hosts describe the entrepreneurial density of CES Japan hand-clapper devices: 20 connected by Bluetooth - A booth demonstration of synchronized clapping hands

Pivotal Quotes: "CES is really three shows." — Steven Sanofsky: He explains the structure of the event: big companies, small hustling firms, and parts suppliers "What you're seeing here is like somebody took a shipping container of Lego blocks and dumped them on the floor and people are picking those Lego blocks up and putting them together." — Benedict Evans: A metaphor for the component ecosystem and rapid product assembly "This is just Apple doing AirPlay to third party hardware." — Steven Sanofsky: His reaction to Apple’s presence in TV ecosystems and service integration "TV people are feature phone makers. They're not smart TVs." — Steven Sanofsky: He argues TV manufacturers are adding software without solving the underlying user experience

Implications: CES should be read as a forecasting tool for components, standards, and business models. Expect more custom screens, selective smart-home wins, and continued TV/app fragmentation; many voice and “smart” features will fade unless they solve real consumer workflows.