a16z Podcast: Searching for Mobile's Third OS

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The discussion argues that a third mobile OS is possible and necessary because Android and iOS act mainly as closed shells for services, limiting deep integration for developers and users. Cyanogen’s vision is an open computing platform spanning phones, wearables, and IoT, with localized service stacks and core OS-level experiences that could challenge incumbents as hardware commoditizes and mobile-first markets drive the next wave of innovation.

Main Topics: Why a Third Mobile OS Matters (Priority: 5/5): Kurt McMaster argues that mobile innovation is not exhausted and that a third or even fourth OS can emerge as global mobile users grow far beyond current levels. Closed vs. Open Computing Platforms (Priority: 5/5): The speakers contrast iOS and Android’s closed service layers with an open OS model where core services can integrate deeply into the system rather than live only as apps. Developer Opportunity and Core Services (Priority: 5/5): The transcript emphasizes that AI, machine learning, messaging, media, and other core services need OS-level access to scale and become standalone businesses. Global and Mobile-First Markets (Priority: 4/5): Emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, and Russia are presented as the real frontier for innovation because many users there experience smartphones as their first computer. Hardware Commoditization and Software Differentiation (Priority: 4/5): As device quality improves at lower price points, the differentiator shifts from hardware specs to software experiences, localization, and ecosystem integration. Cyanogen’s Platform Vision (Priority: 5/5): Cyanogen positions itself as a user- and developer-driven OS aiming to surface experiences unavailable on iOS or standard Android, especially through localized defaults and integrated services.

Key Arguments: Android and iOS are described as shells for services, preventing deep OS-level innovation outside the incumbent ecosystems. An open computing platform would let developers build core services, not just apps, enabling scalable businesses around AI, machine learning, and integrated experiences. Many valuable services should be embedded in the OS so they can communicate with each other transparently and create new user experiences. Emerging markets are not “dumbed down” versions of mature markets; they are often more advanced in mobile usage because the phone is the primary computing device. Hardware is becoming commoditized, so differentiation will increasingly come from software, localized service stacks, and integrated experiences. Cyanogen believes many core services should become invisible and automatic, with defaults and context determining what appears when needed. Apple and Google are seen as under-optimizing for local geographies, leaving room for region-specific stacks and partnerships. A third OS cannot simply mimic existing platforms; it must create compelling experiences that capture imagination and offer something meaningfully different.

Data Points: Global mobile users: well over 6 billion - McMaster says mobile computing will grow from a couple billion users to over six billion, creating room for additional OS platforms. iPhone sales in a record quarter: 75 million phones - Used to illustrate Apple’s continued strength and consumer satisfaction with iOS devices. Google Now partners: 20–30 new partners - Example of Google opening parts of its platform to third-party integrations. Google Now partners (earlier stage): 5 to 40 - Illustrates the growth of Google Now’s partner ecosystem over time. Android app ecosystem size: 1.4 million apps - Cited to show that even with massive app scale, direct OS integration remains limited. Current smartphones in the world: about 2.2 billion - Used to frame the current size of the installed base before the next wave of adoption. Flagship Micromax price: $140 - Example of low-cost, high-performance devices emerging in India. OnePlus launch price: $299 - Cited as an earlier benchmark for high price-performance Android devices. Low-end device price range: $50–$75 - Projected next-year pricing for phones that may approach iPhone-like experiences. Mobile data usage concentration: less than 200 applications drive 75–80% - McMaster argues that a small set of core services dominate global mobile usage.

Pivotal Quotes: "We think that as mobile computing goes from a couple billion users to well over six billion users, there's an opportunity on the global platform for definitely a third, maybe even a fourth." — Kurt McMaster: Core thesis for why a third mobile OS can emerge now. "iOS and Google-driven Android are shells. For their services, right?" — Kurt McMaster: Summarizes the argument that dominant OSes limit deep service integration. "Computing needs to get out of the way." — Kurt McMaster: Describes the vision of transparent, OS-level, context-aware services.

Implications: If hardware keeps commoditizing, OS competition shifts to software, localization, and embedded services. That opens space for new platforms like Cyanogen, especially in mobile-first markets where users want experiences beyond the iOS/Android model.