All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: A multi-pitch investing event featured four ideas: MGM as a casino/entertainment asset with hidden upside from Barry Diller’s bid, Talon Energy as a power-cycle beneficiary for AI/data centers, Actus Oncology as a de-risked radiopharma biotech platform, and GeoNet as a crypto-enabled RTK geolocation network for robotics. The panel debated valuation, downside risk, regulation, and timing, then ranked MGM first overall.

Main Topics: MGM as a bid-backed casino and hidden-asset play (Priority: 5/5): Aaron Cowen argued MGM is more than Vegas: the stock is supported by Barry Diller’s accumulation/bid, plus hidden upside from Osaka, Japan and Dubai optionality. He framed it as a simple, asymmetric investment with a strong floor and major international upside. Talon Energy and the AI power cycle (Priority: 5/5): Dan Dreyfus framed Talon as a hard-asset, replacement-cost investment in scarce power capacity needed for AI/data centers. He argued power demand is entering a new supercycle, with Talon positioned to benefit from contracted cash flows and potential new buildout. Actus Oncology and radiopharmaceutical biotech (Priority: 4/5): Oleg Nodelman pitched Actus as a platform radiotherapy company with known targets, ample cash, and pharma interest. He emphasized the moat from isotope manufacturing, clinical imaging de-risking, and the potential for a platform re-rating if early data succeeds. GeoNet as crypto infrastructure for precision location (Priority: 4/5): Kyle Samani pitched GeodNet as a decentralized RTK network powering robotics, agriculture, drones, autonomous vehicles, and other physical AI use cases. He stressed network effects, low capital cost, and token value accrual via revenue-linked buybacks. Risk, regulation, and market timing (Priority: 4/5): Panelists and hosts repeatedly discussed regulatory risk, interest-rate sensitivity, biotech binary risk, and the challenge of valuing long-duration or tokenized assets. The closing discussion compared downside protection versus lottery-ticket upside. Audience Q&A and ranking of ideas (Priority: 3/5): Audience questions tested each thesis on monetization, regulatory barriers, China risk, valuation multiples, and technical feasibility. Final rankings from both audience and hosts crowned MGM first, with Talon second and the more speculative ideas trailing.

Key Arguments: MGM has an embedded floor because Barry Diller is already a large buyer/bidder and the company itself has been repurchasing stock aggressively. MGM’s hidden assets—Osaka and possibly Dubai—create substantial optionality that the market is underpricing. Talon benefits from a secular AI-driven power shortage; the company can earn more from existing contracts and potentially more from new data-center power buildouts. Replacement cost is central to Talon’s valuation: buying below the cost to rebuild the asset should create asymmetric upside as power scarcity persists. Actus Oncology reduces biotech risk by using known targets, imaging to confirm drug delivery, and a platform approach that can create value beyond a single program. Radiopharma has a moat because isotopes and manufacturing are hard to replicate and are less exposed to Chinese copycat competition. GeoNet’s token accrues value because a large share of revenue is used to buy tokens in the open market, effectively linking usage growth to token demand. Decentralized RTK/base-station deployment can outcompete satellite alternatives on cost and energy use for many robotics and precision-ag applications. The panel repeatedly emphasized that the best investments combine downside protection, a visible catalyst path, and large hidden or future optionality. The closing vote and host comments suggested the strongest ideas were the ones with tangible current cash flows plus optional upside rather than pure binary speculation.

Data Points: MGM stake owned by Barry Diller: 26% - Used to argue there is a real bid and that the stock is in play. MGM bid price: $48 per share - Diller’s recent bid referenced during the pitch. MGM valuation estimate before bid: about $37 per share - Presenter said the stock was around this level when he built the deck. MGM estimated value from Vegas + China: low $60s per share - Aaron’s base-case sum-of-the-parts valuation. Japan gambling market: about $40 billion - Compared with Macau and Vegas to show Osaka’s opportunity. Macau gambling market: about $30 billion - Benchmark for Asia gaming scale. Vegas gambling market: about $10 billion - Benchmark showing Japan could be much larger than Vegas. Talon enterprise value: $25 billion - Current market valuation in the pitch. Talon replacement cost: $45 billion - Presenter argued the asset trades at a discount to rebuild cost. Talon assets: 2 GW nuclear + 6 GW natural gas baseload - Core generation portfolio cited in the pitch. PJM new power demand forecast: 106 GW over 10 years - Used to show regional power scarcity and urgency. Microsoft/Three Mile Island PPA: $100/MWh for 20 years - Example of hyperscaler demand pulling nuclear power back online. Talon stock price: high $300s - Starting point for the valuation scenarios. Talon free cash flow: $50/share annually - Base case if the company simply runs the business and contracts roll off. Talon upside valuation: up to $1,050/share - If free cash flow rises to $70/share and a 15x multiple is applied. Actus market cap: $1 billion - Presented as current equity value. Actus enterprise value: $500 million - After accounting for cash on the balance sheet. Actus IPO: $300 million - Size of the public offering. Actus IPO oversubscription: 18x - Used to demonstrate investor demand. Actus Lilly backstop: $100 million order - Eli Lilly supported the IPO. Actus data timeline: 2027 initial clinical data; Nectin-4 as early as Q1 - Catalyst timing for lead programs. Actus potential value: $10 billion or $200/share - Bull-case if one program succeeds. Radiotherapy M&A: $15 billion - Scale of dealmaking in the space over recent years. GeodNet annualized run rate: $11 million - Current revenue level cited by Kyle Samani. GeodNet revenue allocation to token buybacks: 80% - Major mechanism for token value accrual. GeodNet buybacks: $8.8 million per year - Implied amount going to open-market token purchases. GeodNet customer spend year 1: $60,000/year - Average customer usage in the first year. GeodNet customer spend year 2: $170,000/year - Average customer usage by year two. GeodNet market cap (FDV): about $150 million - Presenter contrasted fully diluted valuation with visible market cap. GeodNet network footprint: 150 countries; 11,000+ cities; 80% of global population - Claimed global coverage of the RTK network. GeodNet base stations: 22,000 nodes - Scale of decentralized infrastructure deployment. GeodNet customer base growth: 5x last year - Used to support rapid adoption thesis. Audience votes for MGM: 50% - MGM won both audience and host ranking. Audience votes for Talon: 24% - Second in audience ranking. Audience votes for Actus: 21% - Third in audience ranking. Audience votes for GeoNet: 5% - Fourth in audience ranking.

Pivotal Quotes: "Anyone should be able to trade any asset anywhere in the world, anytime 24-7, with just an internet connection and a phone in their pocket." — Kyle Samani: Opening thesis for GeoNet’s decentralized financial/infra vision. "We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next twenty years. AI demand just turbocharges." — Dan Dreyfus: Core argument that the AI power shortage is structural, not just a short-term theme. "if you can buy an asset, a hard asset, at below replacement costs, for an asset that's going to be needed in the future... you buy that asset at the discount to replacement cost, you hold it, and you sell it at a big premium" — Dan Dreyfus: Explains the valuation framework behind the Talon Energy pitch.

Implications: The event favored ideas with visible catalysts, hard assets, or contractual cash flows over pure speculation. Investors were urged to weigh downside protection, timing, and regulatory risk, while recognizing that AI, robotics, and gaming can create major hidden upside.