Anthropic Cuts Off Windsurf, Deel Rewrites the Narrative and Flock Safety’s Surveillance Tech | E2134

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on AI platform power struggles, startup growth, and public safety tech. The hosts discuss Circle’s IPO, strong public-market performance from CoreWeave and eToro, Anthropic’s cutting off Windsurf and later being sued by Reddit, Cohere’s rapid revenue growth, and the Deal/Rippling controversy. The second half features a deep interview with Flock Safety CEO Garrett Langley about using license plate readers, drones, and AI to help law enforcement while balancing privacy and accountability.

Main Topics: Circle IPO and stablecoin investing (Priority: 5/5): The hosts discuss Circle’s upcoming IPO, noting heavy oversubscription and debating whether the public understands stablecoins as an investment or infrastructure product. Macro slowdown and AI/job displacement uncertainty (Priority: 4/5): They react to weak ADP employment data, connecting it to broader concerns about slowing hiring and possible AI-driven labor shifts, while emphasizing that hard evidence is still lacking. IPO market performance in 2025 (Priority: 4/5): The conversation reviews recent tech IPOs like eToro and CoreWeave, using their strong post-debut trading as a positive signal for upcoming public listings such as Chime, Figma, and Databricks. Anthropic, Windsurf, and platform risk (Priority: 5/5): The hosts analyze Anthropic cutting off Windsurf after reports of an OpenAI acquisition, debating whether model providers must remain neutral and whether aggressive platform behavior hurts adoption. AI model company growth and valuation (Priority: 4/5): Reuters-reported revenue growth at Anthropic and Cohere is used to argue that frontier model companies may be growing fast enough to justify aggressive strategic behavior and continued investor enthusiasm. AI content licensing and Reddit lawsuit (Priority: 5/5): Reddit’s suit against Anthropic over continued scraping becomes a broader discussion of copyright, licensing economics, and whether AI firms can keep using publisher content without paying. Flock Safety and surveillance/public safety tradeoffs (Priority: 5/5): Garrett Langley explains Flock’s license plate readers, drones, and 911 workflow tools, arguing they improve safety and solve real problems, while the interviewer presses on privacy, transparency, and misuse risks.

Key Arguments: Weak ADP job growth may signal macro softening, but it is not yet proof that AI is directly replacing workers. Circle’s stablecoin business is better understood as financial infrastructure and liquidity plumbing than as a speculative token bet. Strong trading in early 2025 IPOs like CoreWeave and eToro creates positive sentiment for future tech listings. Anthropic’s decision to cut off Windsurf introduces platform risk for startups dependent on foundation model vendors. Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth suggests it can afford to act more aggressively in the market, though that may damage its brand. Reddit’s licensing deals show that content owners can and should monetize training/data access, and the courts will likely decide the boundary. Flock Safety argues that public safety tools are justified because they are deployed on public roads, under elected oversight, and with configurable privacy controls. The core issue in surveillance tech is not simply what the company builds, but whether public institutions use it responsibly and transparently.

Data Points: OpenAI rumored acquisition of Windsurf: around $3 billion - Initial rumor discussed at the start of the episode Anthropic cutoff notice to Windsurf: less than one week - Windsurf reportedly lost access to Claude models shortly before the alleged OpenAI deal ADP May employment gain: 37,000 new U.S. jobs - Used as a weak macro signal and possible slowdown indicator Circle IPO oversubscription: 25x oversubscribed - Signal of strong investor demand ahead of pricing eToro IPO price: $52 per share - Recent public-market debut discussed as a benchmark for 2025 IPO performance eToro current price: $64.65 per share - Post-IPO trading performance at time of discussion CoreWeave IPO price: $40 per share - Used as a major example of a very strong debut CoreWeave current price: $156.60 per share - Value cited during the discussion; later corrected upward to $163 per share CoreWeave later price update: $163 per share - Speaker notes updated live during the segment Anthropic annualized revenue run rate: $3 billion - Reuters-reported figure reached by May 2025 Anthropic prior Reuters revenue run rate: $2 billion - Reuters had reported this level in March 2025 Anthropic earlier revenue run rate: $1 billion - Reuters had reported this level in December 2024 Cohere fundraising talks: $500 million - FT reported a new raise potentially at flat or slight up-round valuation Cohere prior valuation: $5.5 billion - Reference valuation from previous round Cohere ARR: over $100 million - FT reported that Cohere doubled ARR in four months and crossed this threshold last month Deal revenue run rate: over $1 billion - Reuters said Deal crossed this milestone in Q1 Deal growth rate: 75% year over year - Reported for the 12 months ending April 30 Deal EBITDA margin: 18% - Reported for the first quarter Reddit other revenue growth: from $20.3 million to $33.7 million - Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, driven in part by content licensing Reddit licensing RPO: $224.5 million - Remaining performance obligations tied to long-term content licensing contracts Flock Safety ARR: over $300 million - Mentioned during the Flock interview; reported by TC last year Flock Safety growth: 70% year over year - Referenced alongside ARR Flock Safety revenue scale-up: $1 million to $100 million in just over three years - CEO described the company’s early growth trajectory Flock camera BOM/cost reduction: from $80,000–$120,000 to about $3,000 - Cost drop versus incumbent camera systems Flock crime-solving claim: over 5,000 crimes a day - CEO cited the company’s impact on public safety Flock missing persons impact: over 1,000 missing people returned last year - CEO cited as a benefit of the platform 911 call lag: 1 to 3 minutes - CEO said this is the typical delay before officers know a call came in California legal retention limit: SB 34 / no immigration enforcement use - CEO described state-specific constraints on product use Austin data retention: 7 days - Example of city-level policy choice Dallas data retention: 90 days - Example of another city’s policy choice Flock Safety IPO timing speculation: early 2027 - Host’s estimate based on growth trajectory Impulse Space financing: $300 million Series C - Space logistics company raising a large round Impulse Space customer/contracts: 30 signed contracts worth $200 million - CEO claims discussed in the interview AeroDrum / drone response: 30 to 45 seconds - CEO said drones can reach fires much faster than trucks

Pivotal Quotes: "I think if you kick someone out of your house, the relationship's over." — Alex/Lon: Used jokingly to describe Anthropic cutting Windsurf off from Claude models "These claims are empty marketing gimmicks." — Reddit lawsuit filing quoted by Alex: Reddit’s opening criticism of Anthropic in the copyright lawsuit "The right answer is like, even if you land against it, then go build a better version." — Garrett Langley: Flock Safety CEO on criticism of surveillance tech and public safety tradeoffs

Implications: The episode suggests AI infrastructure is entering a more combative, regulated phase: model providers, data owners, and startups are fighting over access and control, while public safety technology is scaling fast but will face continuing privacy and oversight scrutiny.