Best Of: A Powerful Theory of Why the Far Right Is Thriving Across the Globe

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ezra Klein and Pippa Norris discuss Norris and Ron Inglehart’s theory of “cultural backlash”: generational shifts toward post-materialist values have expanded support for liberal social norms while producing resentment among older, socially conservative voters. That backlash helps explain the rise of transgressive populist-authoritarian leaders worldwide, whose appeal combines nostalgia, anti-elite signaling, and resistance to rapid cultural change.

Main Topics: The silent revolution in values (Priority: 5/5): Norris explains Inglehart’s theory that postwar generations moved from material security toward post-materialist priorities like autonomy, gender equality, secularism, and diversity as prosperity increased. Generational change vs. life-cycle change (Priority: 5/5): The conversation distinguishes durable cohort effects from temporary age-related shifts, arguing that people’s formative years lock in political and cultural norms that persist into later life. Backlash and the rise of authoritarian populism (Priority: 5/5): Older and more socially conservative groups feel culturally displaced and support leaders who promise restoration, voice, and defense against liberal institutions and norms. Transgressive aesthetics as political strategy (Priority: 4/5): Populist leaders gain appeal by openly defying elites, experts, and social taboos, signaling they won’t be cowed in the way their supporters feel they have been. Supply-side and demand-side explanations (Priority: 4/5): Norris argues populist success reflects both parties moderating/tuning their messages and a changing electorate increasingly receptive to anti-establishment, anti-diversity appeals. Media, social media, and political acceleration (Priority: 3/5): Klein presses the role of smartphones, Twitter, and algorithmic media in amplifying identity conflict and elite signaling; Norris agrees they matter but sees them as amplifiers more than root causes. Democracy, backsliding, and the future of the center (Priority: 4/5): The discussion ends on whether demographic and cultural trends will eventually favor liberalism or whether institutional erosion and authoritarian normalization will block that transition.

Key Arguments: Postwar affluence enabled a shift from materialist politics (jobs, security, welfare) to post-materialist politics (freedom, autonomy, equality, lifestyle). These changes were generational, not simply persuasion-based; values formed in youth persist and are replaced slowly as cohorts age. Many voters experience cultural change as loss of status, voice, and familiarity—not just policy disagreement—making cultural issues more explosive than economic ones. Populist-authoritarian parties and leaders win by promising to restore national identity, social order, and respect for “ordinary people” against cosmopolitan elites. Transgression is not incidental but central: swearing, anti-expert rhetoric, and norm-breaking communicate that the leader shares supporters’ sense of being excluded and silenced. Social media and digital media accelerate polarization and visibility, but Norris argues they do not fully explain the deeper value shifts underlying populism. Economic hardship matters, but cross-national and survey evidence suggests cultural issues and demographic change are stronger predictors of populist support than class alone. The left faces a structural challenge because it cannot easily reverse liberal cultural gains without alienating core supporters, while center-right parties can partially adapt on immigration and order. Democratic backsliding may prevent demographic change from translating into a stable liberal consensus, because anti-elite forces can reshape institutions before generational replacement fully matures.

Data Points: Joe Biden approval: low 40s - Used as a benchmark to show that U.S. politics is not uniquely dysfunctional compared with other G7 leaders. Justin Trudeau approval: low 40s - Cited as a comparison in Canada. Emmanuel Macron approval: upper 20s - Used to show broader global incumbency dissatisfaction. Olaf Scholz approval: 20s - Part of the cross-national comparison of weak leader popularity. Liz Truss approval: 9% - Mentioned as the level at which she resigned as UK prime minister. Marine Le Pen final-round vote: around 40% - Referenced to show the strength of far-right support in France. Sweden Democrats: second-highest number of seats in parliament - Cited as evidence of radical-right growth in Sweden. Bolsonaro vote share: 49% - Referenced as a near-majority result in Brazil, despite losing. Trump support level: about 40% - Norris notes Trump’s approval/vote support stayed around this level, illustrating a durable minority coalition. Marine Le Pen 2022 vote share: 41% - Shown as growth from 34% in 2017. Marine Le Pen 2017 vote share: 34% - Used as the comparison point for her later increase. Giorgia Meloni party vote: 26% - Used to illustrate normalization and growth of a post-fascist-rooted party in Italy.

Pivotal Quotes: "the things which they took for granted, the things which they regarded as important for themselves and their community and their country, those things were being lost" — Pippa Norris: Explaining why older generations are drawn to authoritarian populist backlash "they want to restore national borders and nativism benefits for those who are born in the country rather than having the diversity which has come about through increasing waves of immigration" — Pippa Norris: Describing the core agenda of authoritarian populist parties "the transgressive ways of working is reflected in all sorts of aspects of populism" — Pippa Norris: On why norm-breaking style is central to the appeal of populist leaders

Implications: The episode suggests populism is less a fleeting Trump-specific phenomenon than a durable global reaction to generational, cultural, and institutional change. Understanding that backlash is essential for designing politics that can reassure anxious voters without reversing liberal democratic gains.