Biden Promised to ‘Turn the Page’ on Trump. What Went Wrong?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ezra Klein and Jake Sullivan examine the intellectual foundations and mixed legacy of "Bidenism": a foreign policy aimed at serving the American middle class through industrial policy, tougher competition with China, alliance-building, and ending endless wars. Sullivan argues Biden strengthened U.S. power and alliances, but the administration still struggled to translate policy gains into durable domestic political support amid Afghanistan, Gaza, and post-COVID dislocation.

Main Topics: Origins of Bidenism after Trump’s 2016 win (Priority: 5/5): Sullivan explains how Trump’s victory forced Democrats to rethink the split between domestic and foreign policy, leading to a more middle-class-centered strategy. Foreign policy for the middle class (Priority: 5/5): The core Biden/Sullivan framework: domestic industrial strength, technology protection, supply-chain resilience, and allied coordination to improve working-class outcomes and national security. Afghanistan withdrawal and public legitimacy (Priority: 4/5): Sullivan defends the withdrawal as strategically correct while acknowledging the chaos and political damage it caused to Biden’s image and broader sense of order. China competition and alliance strategy (Priority: 5/5): The administration’s China policy blended Trump-era toughness with Biden-era alliance coordination, export controls, and domestic investment in chips, infrastructure, and clean energy. Russia-Ukraine war and limits of leverage (Priority: 4/5): Sullivan argues U.S. support should help Ukraine negotiate from strength, not dictate surrender, while emphasizing NATO unity and the strategic failure of Russia’s invasion. Israel-Gaza, humanitarian harm, and U.S. leverage (Priority: 5/5): The conversation explores the tension between supporting Israel’s security and conditioning aid amid massive civilian suffering in Gaza and wider regional escalation. A more unstable global order (Priority: 4/5): Sullivan frames the era as one of systemic transition in which crises cannot be eliminated, only managed without direct U.S. war, while strengthening U.S. resilience in AI and clean energy.

Key Arguments: Trump’s 2016 win reflected, in part, a belief that U.S. foreign policy and globalization were not serving working people; Democrats needed to reconnect national strategy to domestic well-being. "Foreign policy for the middle class" means using industrial policy, trade protections, technology controls, and allied coordination to improve wages, jobs, and supply-chain resilience. Biden was right to end the Afghanistan war; the strategic benefits outweighed the chaos, and the U.S. has not seen the feared collapse in alliances or a major Afghanistan-based terror resurgence. The Biden administration made China policy more effective by keeping pressure on Beijing while finally centering allies, especially in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. U.S. support for Ukraine should preserve Ukrainian sovereignty and negotiating leverage, not become an American diktat over territorial concessions. On Israel-Gaza, the U.S. should support Israel against multiple threats but also push hard on civilian protection and humanitarian aid rather than impose a total cutoff in weapons. The post-Cold War era of U.S. primacy is over; the goal now is to navigate competition with China, Russia, and Iran without entering major direct conflict. Biden’s domestic economic agenda may matter more over decades than in election cycles, which helps explain why policy gains did not translate into a second Democratic win. The administration sees the U.S. as better positioned on AI, industrial capacity, and alliances than it was four years ago, even if the public perception remains unsettled.

Data Points: Trump’s return to office: won again more convincingly in 2024 - Used to question whether Bidenism succeeded politically despite policy gains. Afghanistan war duration if continued: 25th year - Sullivan says U.S. troops would be entering year 25 if the war had continued. Afghan allies evacuated: tens of thousands - Sullivan cites evacuation successes after Kabul fell in August 2021. European-China investment agreement: signed one month before Biden took office in 2021 - Presented as evidence Trump failed to align Europe against China. Biden public support in Afghanistan fallout: approval rating dipped beneath 50% and never really recovered - Used to describe the political cost of the withdrawal. Biden/U.S. alliance coalition for Ukraine: 50 nations - Sullivan says the U.S. preserved a broad international coalition backing Ukraine. Russian strategic losses in Ukraine: failed to take Kyiv, failed to destroy Ukraine, failed to break NATO - Sullivan argues Russia’s main war aims failed despite battlefield gains. Hamas conflict length: 15 months - Sullivan and Klein discuss the prolonged Gaza war and humanitarian crisis. Israeli bombing restriction: 2,000-pound bombs paused - Sullivan cites Biden withholding a specific weapon system due to civilian harm concerns. Syria/ISIS detainee concern: thousands of ISIS fighters and families - Sullivan warns instability in Syria could affect prisons holding ISIS-affiliated detainees.

Pivotal Quotes: "I don't know what the liberal international order is, but I don't like any of those three words." — Jake Sullivan: A formative anecdote from Ohio that shaped his skepticism about elite foreign-policy language and Democratic messaging. "Foreign policy is domestic policy, in my view. And domestic policy is foreign policy." — Joe Biden: Quoted by the host as the campaign slogan capturing the administration’s integrated domestic-national strategy. "We are in a moment of transition in world affairs." — Jake Sullivan: Sullivan’s framing for the post-Cold War order and the Biden administration’s role in managing the shift.

Implications: The episode suggests the Biden era will be judged less by speeches than by whether industrial policy, alliance repair, and restrained competition can produce durable power without war. For listeners, it frames future U.S. policy as a test of whether democracy can still deliver security and prosperity.