Cody Shirk: Taking Global Investing To Another Level

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Brandon interviews investor/writer Cody Shirk about his global, early-stage investing approach built from hard-won experience as a firefighter turned full-time investor. The conversation focuses on resource and geopolitics-driven themes: uranium, psychedelics, gold, Bitcoin, natural gas, platinum, lithium, and critical minerals, with a strong emphasis on boots-on-the-ground due diligence, state-led supply chain shifts, and the risks of junior miners.

Main Topics: Cody Shirk’s background and investing philosophy: Cody explains how he moved from firefighting to full-time investing, emphasizing self-taught, experiential learning, global travel, and a willingness to act early on overlooked trends. Early-stage thematic investing and case studies: He details successful and failed bets in Central American land, uranium, and psychedelic medicine to illustrate his strategy of entering before consensus forms and exiting as attention rises. Uranium and the value of physical due diligence: Cody recounts his Chernobyl trip and mine visits, arguing that direct observation and skepticism of junior miners helped him avoid scams and favor safer exposure via Cameco and the URA ETF. Critical minerals, resource nationalism, and geopolitics: The discussion highlights U.S. supply-chain realignment away from China/Russia and toward Latin America, with examples including Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Africa's destabilization affecting mining access. Hard assets as portfolio hedges: Cody argues for holding gold, silver, Bitcoin, and even the U.S. dollar simultaneously, framing each as serving different roles in wealth preservation, liquidity, and real-world utility. Natural gas and platinum as current opportunities: He presents natural gas and platinum as overlooked, cheap, cyclical opportunities driven by geopolitics, industrial demand, and market neglect, while stressing patience and diversification. Writing, networking, and fund management: Cody explains that writing the Explorer Report sharpened his thinking and opened doors to capital, partnerships, and trips; he also describes the emotional and operational difficulty of managing outside money.

Key Arguments: Being early matters more than being popular: the best opportunities appear when most investors are skeptical or ignoring a theme. Boots-on-the-ground research creates an edge in opaque markets; visiting Chernobyl, mines, and foreign business environments changed his conviction and risk assessment. Junior resource miners are often misleading, overpromotional, or outright scams; large, liquid vehicles can be safer even if less explosive. Global commodity markets are increasingly shaped by resource nationalism, sanctions, export bans, and bilateral state relationships rather than purely free markets. The U.S. is shifting toward Latin America for strategic minerals as supply chains from China, Russia, and unstable parts of Africa weaken. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin can all serve as stores of value, while the U.S. dollar still remains the dominant transactional currency globally. Natural gas and platinum are attractive because they are cheap relative to history, tied to industrial/strategic demand, and underappreciated by current investor sentiment. Writing about investments improves decision-making and can create unexpected opportunities such as capital raising, travel, and relationship-building.

Data Points: MacroOps retention: "by far the highest retention rates" - Brandon uses this as part of the intro to promote MacroOps' investing community U.S. investing service comparison: "highest retention rates of any investing service in the industry" - Promotional framing for MacroOps Collective Central America land timing: 2011–2012 - Cody bought coastal land after the post-2008 crash Uranium entry period: 2017–2018 - He bought uranium heavily during a bearish period and held for years Psychedelic medicine company buildout: 2 companies - Cody built two psychedelic medicine companies that were later acquired Chernobyl reactor containment: 30–40 years after the meltdown - He saw the sarcophagus project still underway during his trip Pripyat population pre-disaster: 80,000 people - The abandoned city next to Chernobyl had been built for this many residents Nicaragua land returns: "doubling my money almost annually" - Cody described his Central American land strategy before the police intimidation incident Canada/U.S. resource advantage: "the world's largest proven reserves of lithium" - Cody says the U.S. has large reserves but has not fully extracted them Rare earth processing share: 99% - Mentioned in discussion of China dominance in rare earth processing Russia-backed African governments: 3 - Cody says Wagner overthrew governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger U.S. PE multiple: 28–29 - Cody contrasts U.S. market valuation with cheaper Chile Chile PE multiple: 5–6 - Cody cites Chile as cheap and resource-exposed U.S. free trade agreements: 50+ - He notes the U.S. has many FTAs but recently signed a new one with Chile New U.S. free trade agreement gap: 10 years - Cody says the Chile deal is the first new U.S. FTA in a decade Natural gas price level: cheapest in 30 years - Used to support his natural gas thesis (not inflation-adjusted) Lithium demand outlook: 3x by 2030 - He says projected demand growth is far above current production Lithium production vs. demand: half of projected 2030 demand - Used to argue for long-term upside despite current oversupply Platinum vs. gold price level: gold ~$2,500/oz; platinum below $1,000/oz - September 2024 comparison used to argue platinum is unusually cheap Platinum historical ratio: ~$2,100/oz vs gold ~$900/oz in 2008–2009 - Cody cites a historically inverted relationship versus today Platinum ETF fee: 0.6% management fee - He mentions PPLT as a physical platinum vehicle Ukraine trip timing: 2015–2016 - Cody visited Kyiv and Chernobyl before the current war Chesapeake/Total Energies LNG expansion: new LNG facility in Baja California - He says this would bypass the Panama Canal for Asia-bound exports USD trade volume: highest on record last month - Cody uses this to argue the dollar remains dominant despite BRICS rhetoric

Pivotal Quotes: ""I have more of an MBA in hard knocks."" — Cody Shirk: He describes his nontraditional path into investing and learning through real-world mistakes ""If you can physically go to some of these operations and you'll have your mind blown."" — Cody Shirk: On the value of on-the-ground due diligence in opaque resource markets ""The U.S. dollar is the healthiest horse in the glue factory by far."" — Cody Shirk: His view that the dollar remains dominant despite its debt and inflation issues

Implications: Listeners should expect more volatility and opportunity in resources as geopolitics reshapes supply chains. Cody’s framework favors early, contrarian bets, physical research, and patience—especially in metals, energy, and other hard assets.