The Michael Shermer Show
The Michael Shermer Show

Could the American Economy Collapse Like Venezuela's? (Mark Skousen)

Shermer and Skousen discuss: whether economics is politicized • Adam Smith and what he really said • how the economy really works • fiat money vs. gold standard money • inflation and what to do about it • experimental economics • regulation on capitalism • what the Fed does (or should do) • Modern M

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Mark Skousen Guest

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Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Michael Shermer interviews economist Mark Skousen about why economics matters, arguing that free markets, competition, and stable rules best allocate scarce resources and raise living standards. They debate taxes, government spending, social welfare, healthcare, banking crises, inflation, regulation, crypto, and Skousen’s gross output metric as a better complement to GDP.

Main Topics: Why economics matters and the case for free markets (Priority: 5/5): Skousen argues economics is about allocating scarce resources, weighing costs and benefits, and preserving freedom under the rule of law. He credits Adam Smith’s competitive model for long-run prosperity and rising living standards. Taxes, incentives, and capital flight (Priority: 5/5): He criticizes high progressive taxes and wealth taxes as distortions on capital formation and entrepreneurship, arguing that lower, simpler taxes encourage growth and reduce evasion or out-migration. Government’s proper role and market-based governance (Priority: 4/5): Skousen rejects anarchism but argues government should adopt market principles such as outsourcing, competitive bidding, and means testing to reduce waste while still providing necessary public goods. Healthcare, education, and third-party payment problems (Priority: 5/5): The conversation centers on how subsidized or 'free' services create moral hazard, price distortion, and overuse. Skousen favors school choice, health savings accounts, and user-pay models, with limited public support for catastrophic or basic needs. Banking instability, the Fed, and inflation (Priority: 5/5): They discuss Silicon Valley Bank, bond losses, quantitative easing, and the Federal Reserve’s role in boom-bust cycles. Skousen sees easy money, rate volatility, and debt growth as drivers of instability and inflation. Welfare, social spending, drugs, and prostitution (Priority: 4/5): Skousen argues that welfare should be targeted and time-limited, that private charity can outperform some state programs, and that prohibitionist policies on drugs or sex work often worsen harm and black markets. Gross output and crypto (Priority: 3/5): Skousen promotes gross output (GO) as a better measure of the economy’s supply chain and total spending, then offers a cautious, open-minded view of crypto as a potential hedge against bad policy but still speculative.

Key Arguments: Economics is valuable because it teaches how to allocate scarce resources efficiently through cost-benefit reasoning. Adam Smith’s competitive, decentralized order is the best proven system for raising prosperity and reducing poverty. High taxes, especially on capital, reduce entrepreneurship, encourage migration, and hurt long-run growth. Government should exist, but it should use market-like mechanisms to minimize waste and improve accountability. Third-party payment in education and healthcare encourages overuse, fraud, and weak cost discipline. School vouchers, health savings accounts, and catastrophic public coverage are preferred over universal free provision. The Federal Reserve’s easy-money/tight-money cycle contributes to bubbles, bank instability, and inflation. The 2008 financial crisis was caused by a mix of deregulation, government mandates, and private-sector risk-taking. Welfare should be means-tested and time-limited so that aid goes to those who truly need it without undermining incentives. Private charity, churches, and volunteer organizations can handle some social problems more effectively than centralized programs. Crypto may function as a hedge against irresponsible government and inflation, but its valuation remains uncertain. Gross output is a better macroeconomic complement to GDP because it captures the supply chain and total economic activity.

Data Points: Wondrium offer: Two years for the price of one - Podcast sponsorship promotion for Shermer listeners Economics course length: 24 lectures - Sean Carroll’s Wondrium course on time Lecture length: About 30 minutes each - Wondrium course description Groos output publication: Published every quarter - U.S. government now publishes GO alongside GDP Economic Freedom Index example: Singapore #1 - Skousen cites Singapore as a high-freedom economy Hong Kong tax stability: No major tax law change in 50–70 years - Used as an example of predictable tax policy Russia flat tax: 13% - Skousen cites Russia’s shift to reduce evasion California millionaire rate: 13% - Skousen claims high-income Californians face this rate on income over threshold U.S. healthcare spending: 18% of GDP - Compared with Singapore’s system Singapore healthcare spending: 4.5% of GDP - Presented as efficient mixed-market model FDIC insurance: Up to $250,000 - Explaining bank deposit protection Federal Reserve money supply growth: 40% in 2020–2021 - Linked to inflation after COVID response Federal debt: Over $31 trillion - Discussed as a rising fiscal risk Federal tax rates in the 1950s: Around 70% top marginal rate - Used in discussion of historical tax policy Social Security/Medicare social spending ranking: U.S. rises from 24th to 2nd when employer-provided benefits are included - From Skousen’s essay on social expenditures Social spending share examples: France 31.5%, Finland 30.8%, Belgium 29%, Italy 28%, Denmark 28% - Compared international social expenditure levels Food stamps: 41 million Americans - Used to argue U.S. welfare is too broad Welfare reform time limit: 5 years - Clinton-era rule for able-bodied recipients Tesla tax subsidy: $10,000 - Shermer describes federal and California incentives he received Silent bank failures in Canada: None in 100 years - Attributed to nationwide branching and concentration in banking

Pivotal Quotes: "How do you actually allocate scarce resources. We all have unlimited wants, but the resources to fulfill those wants are limited." — Mark Skousen: Explaining why economics matters and what the discipline studies "You need to connect the benefits with the expenses. And the closer you can connect them, the better." — Mark Skousen: On third-party payment problems in healthcare, education, and government spending "The Federal Reserve is definitely an engine of inflation." — Mark Skousen: His critique of monetary policy, asset bubbles, and price instability

Implications: Listeners are left with a strong free-market framework for judging policy: favor incentives, targeted aid, price signals, and fiscal/monetary discipline. The conversation also suggests crypto and GO deserve attention as hedges and better metrics in an unstable policy environment.

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