Covid deaths, North Sea gas and Chloe Kelly's World Cup penalty

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode of More or Less fact-checks three attention-grabbing claims: rising Covid deaths, a major revision to UK GDP data, and claims about Chloe Kelly’s shot and North Sea gas. The show finds that the figures often contain a real trend or basis, but the headlines overstate or misframe the facts through missing context, inconsistent methods, or selective comparisons.

Main Topics: Covid deaths and the risk of a new wave (Priority: 5/5): The programme examines a Daily Mail headline about a 57% weekly rise in Covid deaths in England and Wales, explains the recent increase, and places it against much larger earlier waves while noting that reduced testing limits current surveillance. UK GDP revisions and the pandemic recovery narrative (Priority: 5/5): The ONS substantially revised UK economic data, turning an apparent 1.2% contraction into 0.6% growth by late 2021, which reshapes comparisons with other G7 countries but does not erase the UK’s broader long-run weakness. Chloe Kelly's shot speed versus Premier League records (Priority: 4/5): The show investigates claims that Chloe Kelly’s penalty was faster than any Premier League shot and finds the comparison flawed because women’s World Cup data used connected-ball technology to measure peak speed, while Premier League data used average speed from video. Grant Shapps and North Sea gas emissions claims (Priority: 5/5): The programme tests the claim that North Sea gas is 'four times cleaner' than imports and concludes it is misleading because it refers only to production/transport emissions, ignores combustion emissions, and cherry-picks LNG rather than lower-carbon Norwegian pipeline gas. How statistics can mislead when methods differ (Priority: 4/5): Across all segments, the episode shows that truthful numbers can still mislead if time windows, measurement methods, or comparison baselines are inconsistent or selectively chosen.

Key Arguments: Covid deaths are rising, but the 57% weekly increase cited in headlines is only meaningful in context and from a low base after major waves have passed. The current Covid death total (136 a week) is far below early-2021 levels, when deaths exceeded 7,500 a week in England and Wales. Hospital admissions are one of the few remaining useful indicators of Covid trends, and recent admissions have risen from about 700 to just over 2,000 a week, suggesting possible flattening. The ONS GDP revision was unusually large because it incorporated new information and a deep methodological reworking of 2021 industry data. The revision changes the UK’s post-pandemic performance story: the economy no longer appears to have had the worst recovery in the G7, though the longer-term weak growth story remains intact. Chloe Kelly’s shot cannot fairly be compared with Premier League shot speeds because the World Cup figure is a peak instantaneous speed and the Premier League figure is an average speed over the whole shot. Earlier football speed records from the 1990s are likely less reliable due to poor camera resolution and early measurement methods. The 'four times cleaner' gas claim is based only on the emissions from producing, processing and transporting LNG versus North Sea gas, not on total climate impact. Once combustion emissions are included, imported LNG is only about 16% higher in total CO2 than UK gas, not four times higher. Comparing UK gas to LNG alone is misleading because Norwegian pipeline gas is a major import source and has much lower production/transport emissions than LNG.

Data Points: Weekly Covid deaths in England and Wales: 39 to 136 a week - Deaths recorded as Covid as the underlying cause rose from late July to late August. Weekly Covid death increase: 57% - Daily Mail headline about the rise in Covid deaths. Four-week Covid death trend: 20%, 57%, 16%, 58% - Week-by-week increase in deaths over the four weeks from late July. Early-2021 Covid deaths: Over 7,500 a week - Peak weekly deaths in England and Wales during the pandemic’s early 2021 wave. Current Covid death comparison: More than 50 times lower - Latest weekly death figure versus early-2021 peak. Covid admissions in June: About 700 a week - England hospital admissions of people with Covid fell to very low levels in June. Recent Covid admissions: Just above 2,000 a week - Recent England hospital admissions rose and then appeared to plateau. Recent Covid admission peaks: 7,000 to 8,000 a week - Three rapid growth episodes over the past 12 months. First and second wave admissions: 18,000 and 26,000 a week - Peak hospital admissions during the first and second waves. UK GDP revision: From -1.2% to +0.6% - ONS revision for GDP between Q4 2019 and Q4 2021. Revision magnitude: 1.8 percentage points - Size of the upward correction in post-pandemic GDP growth. Timing of UK recovery: By end of 2021 instead of 2023 - Revised data indicate the UK regained pre-pandemic GDP level almost two years earlier. Basic iron and steel revision: From +56% to -66% - Largest sectoral revision highlighted by Chris Giles. Difference in iron and steel revision: 122 percentage points - Gap between old and new estimates for the sector. Chloe Kelly shot speed: 110.7 km/h - Recorded World Cup penalty speed using connected-ball technology. Premier League comparison shot: 107.2 km/h - Saeed Benrahma’s Premier League goal used as comparison by headlines. Men’s World Cup fastest shot: 121.69 km/h - Fastest shot in the Men’s Qatar World Cup, by Luis Chavez. Historic football shot record: 183.4 km/h - David Hurst’s 1996 Guinness World Record shot speed. North Sea gas production/transport emissions: 21 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Figure cited for UK North Sea gas before onshore processing is added. UK gas production/processing/transport emissions: 25 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Adjusted UK figure after adding onshore processing emissions. LNG production/processing/transport emissions: 79 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Average for imported liquefied natural gas. Total emissions for UK gas: 331 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Includes production, transport, processing, and combustion. Total emissions for LNG: 384 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Includes production, transport, processing, and combustion. Total emissions difference: 16% more - Imported LNG’s total emissions are only modestly higher than UK gas once combustion is included. Norwegian gas production/transport emissions: 8 kg CO2 per barrel of oil equivalent - Alternative import source with much lower upstream emissions than LNG.

Pivotal Quotes: "The Secretary of State was completely correct with his statement based on independent research, which shows domestically produced gas is on average four times cleaner than imports." — Government statement: Response to the programme’s challenge that the claim excluded combustion emissions and ignored Norwegian imports. "It is, but it needs some context." — Kate Lamble: On whether the reported 57% rise in Covid deaths is correct. "We have to just stop that, because at the moment, that is not what the data shows at all." — Chris Giles: On claims that the UK had the worst post-pandemic economic performance in the G7.

Implications: Listeners should treat striking statistics as starting points, not conclusions. Method, baseline, and comparison choice can radically change meaning; the same caution applies to public health, economic policy, sport, and climate claims.