Crypto Is Spending Millions to Sway the US Election w/ Molly White

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode examines how the crypto industry, despite its post-bust reputation damage, remains a major force in U.S. election spending through super PACs like Fairshake. Molly White explains the money, strategy, partisan balance, and a potential campaign-finance violation involving Coinbase, while also arguing the industry is weaker culturally than its political spending suggests.

Main Topics: Crypto’s election spending and Follow the Crypto (Priority: 5/5): White explains her new site tracking how crypto money flows into the 2024 U.S. election, aiming to make opaque FEC filings easier to understand and monitor. How super PACs work in crypto politics (Priority: 5/5): The conversation defines super PACs, emphasizing that they can raise unlimited contributions and operate independently from candidates, making them ideal vehicles for crypto influence. Fairshake and affiliated PACs (Priority: 5/5): Fairshake is presented as the dominant crypto super PAC, with Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress acting as connected, branded extensions that support different ideological lanes. Targeting Democrats and key races (Priority: 4/5): White details how crypto spending focused heavily on primaries against progressives like Katie Porter, Jamal Bowman, and Cori Bush, often to remove anti-crypto voices rather than explicitly elect Republicans. Coinbase, federal contracting, and campaign-finance concerns (Priority: 5/5): White outlines a complaint alleging Coinbase violated campaign finance law by donating to Fairshake while negotiating a federal custody contract for seized crypto assets. Trump, Harris, and crypto’s partisan strategy (Priority: 4/5): The discussion compares Trump’s overt crypto pandering and the industry’s earlier enthusiasm for him with efforts to court Kamala Harris after the election landscape shifted. Crypto’s weakened market narrative (Priority: 4/5): White argues the industry lacks the cultural momentum of the 2020-2021 boom, with prices, retail enthusiasm, and mainstream excitement all more muted despite continued political spending.

Key Arguments: The crypto industry is not dead; it has moved from consumer hype to political influence, using election spending as a way to shape regulation. Fairshake and related PACs are designed to support crypto-friendly politicians and oppose regulatory skeptics, especially Democrats tied to Elizabeth Warren. The industry often hides its crypto identity in PAC names and ads, suggesting it knows the label is politically toxic to many voters. Coinbase’s $25 million contribution to Fairshake may have violated federal pay-to-play rules because the company was negotiating a government contract at the same time. Crypto’s current strength is political and financial, not cultural: the industry has money, but it lacks the broad retail excitement seen in prior cycles. The Republican Party has been more openly crypto-friendly, but the industry is now trying to win over Democrats because one-party support is insufficient for policy wins. Trump’s Bitcoin conference appearance sounded heavily scripted on crypto-specific points, indicating the campaign was feeding him industry-friendly language. The broader market recovery has been sideways rather than explosive, suggesting the latest crypto narrative is driven more by ETFs and lobbying than mass adoption.

Data Points: Fairshake total raised: over $160 million - Total funds raised by the largest crypto-focused super PAC mentioned Coinbase spending on Fairshake: almost $50 million - Approximate amount Coinbase contributed over roughly the last two years Coinbase donation in question: $25 million - Contribution to Fairshake that White says may have violated campaign finance law Federal contract value: $32 million - Coinbase’s U.S. Marshals custody contract tied to seized crypto assets Support spending for Republicans: $17.4 million - Follow the Crypto tally of crypto-aligned support spending Support spending for Democrats: $13.9 million - Follow the Crypto tally of crypto-aligned support spending Opposition spending against Democrats: almost $14 million - Crypto PAC spending aimed at defeating Democratic candidates Opposition spending against Republicans: a couple hundred thousand dollars - Much smaller amount spent opposing Republican candidates Spending against Katie Porter: around $10 million - Fairshake-backed opposition spending in the California Senate race Spending against Jamal Bowman: around $2 million - Opposition spending in his congressional primary Spending against Cori Bush: about $1.4 million - Opposition spending in her congressional primary Bitcoin/crypto price trend: moving pretty sideways - White’s assessment of the market after recovering from late-2022/early-2023 lows

Pivotal Quotes: "People got really burned by the last boom and bust." — Paris Marks: Opening framing of why the current crypto moment feels stagnant and reputationally damaged "Follow the Crypto is really just giving a view into the crypto industry's spending on the 2024 election cycle in the United States." — Molly White: White defines the purpose of her new project tracking crypto political spending "People have short memories, but not that short." — Molly White: White explains why the industry lacks the same public enthusiasm after FTX and the crash

Implications: Crypto still has major political leverage even as its public image and market momentum have faded. The episode suggests future policy battles will depend less on retail enthusiasm and more on super PAC power, legal scrutiny, and which party can be persuaded to embrace regulation-friendly crypto policy.