Crypto Trends for 2025: Stablecoins, App Stores, UX, and More

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: This episode outlines A16Z Crypto’s 2025 “Big Ideas” for stablecoins, app stores and discovery, dormant users, infrastructure reuse, and simplified UX. The core thesis is that crypto is moving from speculative infrastructure to practical, mainstream utility: cheaper payments, new distribution channels, more reusable stack components, and products that hide technical complexity so everyday users can benefit without needing crypto fluency.

Main Topics: Stablecoins as mainstream payment rails (Priority: 5/5): Sam Broner argues stablecoins have reached product-market fit and are now cost-competitive enough to matter for thin-margin merchants, especially local businesses that can gain 2%+ in margin by replacing card payments. Crypto app stores and new distribution channels (Priority: 5/5): Maggie Su explains how app developers face inconsistent review, policy, and in-app purchase restrictions on Apple/Google, driving demand for alternative app stores like Solana’s Dapp Store and World’s mini-app ecosystem. Dormant holders becoming active users (Priority: 5/5): Darren Matsuoka highlights a large gap between crypto ownership and usage, arguing that 2025 could convert passive holders into active participants as UX improves and more compelling applications emerge. Builders reusing infrastructure instead of reinventing it (Priority: 4/5): Yoakim Noe contends that as the crypto stack stabilizes, teams will increasingly use specialized off-the-shelf components rather than building bespoke layers, allowing them to focus on differentiation. Hiding the wires for mainstream adoption (Priority: 5/5): Chris Lyons says crypto products should stop leading with jargon like NFTs, wallets, gas fees, and L2s, and instead emphasize user benefits such as ownership, creator monetization, and lower costs. Cross-cutting 2025 themes: AI, physical-digital convergence, and maturation of UX (Priority: 4/5): The hosts frame the broader list as clustering around AI + crypto, the blending of digital and physical systems, and incremental but meaningful improvements in usability and platform maturity.

Key Arguments: Stablecoins can materially improve merchant economics because card fees are pure cost for businesses with in-person transactions and little fraud risk. Adoption of stablecoins is likely to start with local merchants and be amplified by community relationships rather than tech companies alone. Traditional app stores are a bottleneck because their rules are opaque, inconsistently applied, and tied to centralized payment constraints. Crypto-native app stores and hardware ecosystems are emerging as viable alternatives for distribution, discovery, and curation. The largest near-term growth opportunity is not new crypto owners but activating existing holders who already have wallets and accounts. Crypto has progressed through political and financial movements, but its long-term promise is as a computing movement that enables a better internet. As the stack stabilizes, specialization becomes rational: builders should reuse proven components and concentrate on the unique value of their application. Mainstream adoption requires abstraction; users should experience outcomes, not technical plumbing, so crypto benefits are visible without technical literacy. Incumbent platforms and large user bases do not automatically translate into on-chain activity; migration and activation remain difficult. The industry’s next wave may require a killer app comparable to ChatGPT in AI to unlock mass usage and validate crypto’s utility at scale.

Data Points: Stablecoin transfer cost reduction: From about $5 to less than $0.01 per person-to-person transfer - Described as a major platform improvement enabling cheaper payments Merchant card fee burden: About $0.30 per transaction plus 2% - Used to illustrate how much a $1.50 coffee can lose to payment providers Coffee shop margin impact: 2% margin to potentially doubling it - Example of how stablecoin adoption could materially improve thin-margin small businesses Solana Saga Phone Part 2 pre-orders: About 100,000 pre-orders - Cited as evidence of demand for crypto-native hardware/distribution World mini-app registered users: About 600,000 registered users - Example of traction inside World’s app ecosystem Coinbase verified users ever transacted: About 100 million - Used to show the size of dormant user pools within major crypto platforms Coinbase active users: About 8–10 million daily/monthly transacting - Illustrates the gap between accounts and active usage Base users relative to Coinbase total: Roughly 10% to 18% of total base, depending on the period cited - Used to show that only a minority of users have moved into active on-chain behavior Active crypto users among owners: Only 5%–10% - From the State of Crypto market sizing exercise highlighting a large opportunity A16Z Crypto Big Ideas count: 14 trends in 2025, up from 9 last year and 7 the year before - Shows expanding scope and confidence in crypto’s innovation pipeline

Pivotal Quotes: "It’s exactly what it’s for." — Sam Broner: On the idea that stablecoins are finally practical for buying coffee and everyday in-person payments "We don’t need to start with the phrase of, hey, this is an NFT project or, hey, this is a token." — Chris Lyons: Arguing crypto products should hide technical jargon and lead with user benefits "The goal is to get the growth of the different app stores." — Maggie Su: Explaining why crypto-native distribution channels are emerging even if consolidation may come later

Implications: Crypto’s next phase looks less like speculative trading and more like usable infrastructure: cheaper merchant payments, clearer distribution, better UX, and products that abstract away complexity. The industry’s winners may be those who turn existing crypto exposure into daily utility.