E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The Bestie Awards episode is a year-end recap of 2023 across politics, business, science, media, and culture. The hosts emphasize Trump’s political resilience, the backlash against DEI/woke brands, the rise of AI and open-source LLMs, and major winners like Microsoft, Uber, Nvidia, and Sam Altman/OpenAI. They also highlight losers such as Disney, Pfizer, and the Ivy League, while framing 2024 as a year shaped by polarization, technology acceleration, and contested institutions.

Main Topics: Politics: winners, losers, and surprises (Priority: 5/5): The hosts debate the biggest political winners and losers of 2023, centering on Trump’s resurgence, abortion rights victories, Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical leverage, the collapse of DEI, Zelensky’s decline, and the rise of third-party/independent candidates like RFK Jr. Business winners and losers (Priority: 5/5): They discuss the year’s standout companies and market leaders, including Elon Musk’s empire, the Magnificent Seven, Microsoft, Uber, and the broader loss of faith in the ‘go woke’ consumer-brand strategy, while calling out Disney, Pfizer, VCs, and other underperformers. AI, new tech, and the pace of innovation (Priority: 5/5): A major theme is the rapid advance of AI, especially chatbots, open-source local LLMs, and OpenAI’s dramatic year. The hosts frame AI as the defining tech force of 2023 and a key driver of future productivity and competition. Culture war backlash and institutional legitimacy (Priority: 4/5): The conversation repeatedly returns to DEI, antisemitism, universities, media trust, and meritocracy. The hosts argue that institutions such as the Ivy League, legacy media, and woke consumer brands suffered reputational damage in 2023. Macro and financial regime shifts (Priority: 4/5): They discuss Fed policy, the regional banking crisis, higher-for-longer rates, and the surprising market rally after Powell’s December pivot. They frame 2023 as a year where liquidity and valuation regimes shifted sharply. Media, memes, and entertainment (Priority: 3/5): The episode closes with media favorites and internet culture, including Succession, The Bear, Taylor Swift, Bobby Althoff, Ziwe, and various podcasts, showing how entertainment and meme culture shaped the year’s narrative. Closing reflection on 2023 and 2024 outlook (Priority: 3/5): The hosts end on a reflective note about exhaustion, optimism, and the need to protect progress, with repeated references to Enlightenment vs. Dark Ages framing and hopes for a stronger 2024.

Key Arguments: Trump was one of the biggest political winners because legal and political attacks strengthened his Republican position rather than weakening it. Saudi Arabia emerged as a geopolitical winner due to its leverage between the U.S., China, Iran, Israel, and Russia. Abortion rights became a political winner after Dobbs because ballot measures and elections repeatedly favored pro-choice outcomes. DEI, ESG, and related acronyms lost momentum after the October 7th attacks and campus antisemitism controversies. RFK Jr. and other nontraditional or third-party candidates benefited from public frustration with the Biden-Trump rematch. Elon Musk, Microsoft, Uber, Nvidia, and the Magnificent Seven were top business winners due to market cap gains, operational improvements, and AI leadership. Disney and Pfizer were framed as major business losers because of brand backlash, weak content/franchise performance, and public trust problems. The Fed’s response to the SVB/Signature/First Republic crisis prevented a broader banking contagion and likely helped avert recession. AI’s progress in 2023 was broad and fast enough to count as a transformational technology wave rather than a single product launch. Open source, locally run LLMs were presented as important because they preserve access to AI capabilities without central platform control or regulation. The Ivy League and university leadership suffered reputational self-destruction through tone-deaf responses to antisemitism and identity politics. Sam Altman was portrayed as a major turnaround story after his board ouster and quick restoration as OpenAI CEO. The rise of third-party politics may reflect deep dissatisfaction with polarization and could reshape U.S. electoral dynamics over time. The most important societal trend was argued to be a meritocracy/colorblind backlash against DEI and identity-based governance.

Data Points: Saudi Arabia’s leverage: Relations with the U.S., China, Iran, Israel, and Russia - Used to argue Saudi Arabia was the biggest political winner of 2023 Abortion rights ballot wins: Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Ohio - Cited as evidence of abortion rights winning after Dobbs Abortion rights electoral impact: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia - Hosts said abortion rights swung legislatures in swing states Court-race impact: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Abortion rights influenced judicial elections ESG asset decline: 15% - Chamath said sustainable asset ownership/ESG assets shrank in 2023 ESG asset decline in dollars: $5 trillion - Chamath framed this as proof that money is leaving acronym-driven movements Support for a third U.S. political party: 63% - Friedberg cited Gallup data showing broad interest in a third party Public interest in third party: more than 40% - Friedberg recalled a survey suggesting major appetite for a new political party Federal Reserve bond yield move: ~5% to below 4% - Chamath described yields falling rapidly after Powell’s December comments S&P 493 performance: 12% gain - Sachs contrasted broader market performance with the Magnificent Seven Magnificent Seven performance: almost 80% - Sachs used this to explain concentrated stock-market gains Microsoft market cap growth: $1.7T to $2.7T - Friedberg cited a roughly $1 trillion increase in 2023 Microsoft top-line growth: roughly 8% - Used to emphasize how exceptional the valuation increase was Uber market cap growth: $50B to $126B - JCal cited Uber’s turnaround and S&P 500 inclusion Uber EBITDA run rate: $5B - Friedberg described Uber’s business as newly profitable and scaled Venture capital deployments peak: 2021 - Friedberg said 2021 vintages may underperform and hurt firms 2021 VC overhang risk: as many as 50% of firms - Friedberg cited LP concerns about a potential shakeout in VC Regional banking crisis banks: SVB, Signature, First Republic, Credit Suisse - Sachs said these failures reflected rate shock and contagion risk National debt framing: upside-down hockey stick - Friedberg used this phrase to describe fiscal deterioration Excess deaths: 158,000 more Americans died than expected - Chamath used this to argue young adults are under strain Death rate increase ages 35-44: 26% - Chamath cited higher mortality in middle-aged cohorts Death rate increase ages 25-34: 20% - Chamath cited elevated mortality among younger adults Taylor Swift tour revenue: $4 billion - JCal argued Swift was the best CEO of 2023 Tour stop city impact: $90 million per stop - Used to illustrate Taylor Swift’s economic leverage Taylor Swift concert film gross: $250 million - Cited as part of her CEO-like business success NVIDIA stock performance: up 235% - Sachs used this to support Jensen Huang as best CEO BTFP: Bank Term Funding Program - Sachs identified it as a key surprise response to the regional banking crisis Sam Altman turnaround window: about 10 days - JCal described Altman’s rapid shift from fired to celebrated Sam Altman news cycles captured: 3 full news cycles - Used to illustrate his influence and media dominance Rudy Giuliani judgment: $150 million - Mentioned in the self-immolation award discussion Plaintiffs’ requested amount: $48 million - Sachs argued the jury award was excessive relative to the request Harvard applications change: down 17% - Chamath cited declining Ivy League brand appeal

Pivotal Quotes: "The biggest political winner was Donald Trump." — Chamath: He argued that legal attacks and the Colorado Supreme Court decision strengthened Trump’s path to the nomination and White House "The biggest loser in politics is the American people, who are now faced with a Biden-Trump rematch." — JCal: He framed the rematch as the clearest example of political dysfunction and voter dissatisfaction "I think the biggest trend is the return of colorblindness as the standard and the pushback on DEI." — Sachs: He presented DEI backlash and meritocracy as the defining social trend of the year

Implications: The episode suggests 2024 will be shaped by political polarization, a backlash against identity-based institutions, and rapid AI adoption. Listeners should expect continued scrutiny of elites, more demand for meritocracy, and growing competition around technology, media trust, and economic policy.