Ep. 1128 - Tomorrow’s The Election

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on the 2020 election’s final stretch, arguing that Trump still has viable paths through the Electoral College despite Biden’s national lead. It highlights the importance of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, warns against overreading early voting, and claims Kamala Harris’s equity video reveals a Marxist agenda hidden behind Biden’s candidacy. The show also covers media bias, celebrity activism, unrest fears, and Fauci’s criticism of Trump.

Main Topics: Final state of the 2020 race (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro frames three possible outcomes: a narrow Trump win, a narrow Biden win, or a Biden blowout, stressing that Pennsylvania is the key tipping state and that Trump can still win even without polling collapse. Polling, swing states, and electoral math (Priority: 5/5): The segment walks through battleground-state averages and argues that Biden’s national lead is misleading because the Electoral College remains much closer, especially in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Early voting and turnout scenarios (Priority: 4/5): The show argues early voting may be cannibalizing later Democratic turnout while Republicans wait for Election Day, creating the possibility of a late Trump surge rather than a polling error. Kamala Harris’s equity video and Marxism critique (Priority: 5/5): A central segment attacks a Harris campaign video on equality vs. equity as an endorsement of equality of outcome, which Shapiro characterizes as overtly Marxist and a preview of a Biden-Harris governing philosophy. Media, celebrity, and anti-Trump narrative (Priority: 4/5): The episode criticizes CNN, Brian Stelter, Ayanna Pressley, and celebrities like Lady Gaga and Jeff Daniels for partisan messaging, arguing media and entertainment have merged into a single anti-Trump political machine. Violence, unrest, and voter suppression claims (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro discusses boarded-up businesses, clashes at Trump rallies, and Democratic claims of voter suppression, arguing that the real danger of post-election unrest comes from the left, not Trump supporters. COVID, Fauci, and lockdown politics (Priority: 4/5): The transcript portrays Anthony Fauci as aligning with Biden’s lockdown-oriented approach and argues Democrats are using COVID as a moral indictment of Trump rather than debating policy tradeoffs.

Key Arguments: The Electoral College remains close enough that Trump can win despite losing the popular vote by a wide margin. Pennsylvania is the likely tipping point; if Trump wins PA, he likely wins the presidency. Early-vote totals should not be treated as decisive evidence because they may simply replace Election Day votes. Kamala Harris’s equity messaging implies equal outcomes rather than equal rights, which Shapiro argues is indistinguishable from Marxism. The media and celebrity class are functionally acting as Democratic operatives rather than objective observers. Claims that Trump supporters are the primary source of violence are contradicted by visible left-wing unrest and property boarding. Anthony Fauci’s public comments are framed as a political endorsement of Biden’s public-health posture, not neutral science. Lockdowns have economic and public-health costs, so COVID policy cannot be reduced to one-factor disease avoidance.

Data Points: Early votes cast: 90 million+ - Total Americans who had already voted by about 7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday before Election Day. Mail-in ballots returned: 57.6 million - Part of the early voting total cited from the University of Florida U.S. Elections Project. In-person early votes cast: 33.4 million - Part of the early voting total cited from the University of Florida U.S. Elections Project. Texas turnout: Nearly 10 million ballots - Texas had already exceeded its 2016 turnout total in raw ballots cast. Hawaii turnout: 484,000 votes - Hawaii had reached 110% of its 2016 vote total. Pennsylvania early voting share: 38.4% of 2016 total - Pennsylvania was lagging in early voting compared with other states. Ohio early voting share: 48.4% of 2016 total - Ohio was also behind other battlegrounds in early voting participation. Iowa poll margin: Trump +7 - Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll by Selzer & Company showed Trump leading Biden. Wisconsin Atlas Intel margin: Trump 49.6% to Biden 48.5% - Late October polling cited as a sign of tightening in Wisconsin. Trump electoral vote scenario: 279 EV - One cited map had Trump winning 279 electoral votes if he holds key states. Biden electoral vote scenario: 259 EV - Corresponding cited map had Biden at 259 electoral votes in a narrow Trump-win scenario. Biden national polling lead: 6 to 10 points - National polling averages discussed as giving Biden a broad popular-vote advantage. Biden lead in battleground average: 2.9 points - RealClearPolitics average across top battleground states was far tighter than national polls. Florida early-vote split in Miami-Dade: 63% R vs. 56% D voted so far - A sign cited as Republican turnout being strong in a key county. Broward County early-vote split: 61% D vs. 56% R - Democratic turnout remained strong in another major Florida county. COVID case projection: 100,000+ per day - Fauci warned the U.S. could surpass this level in coming weeks. COVID daily record cited: 98,000+ cases - The transcript notes the nation set a daily record on Friday. COVID hospitalization trend: Down 80% - Shapiro argues hospitalizations were far below earlier peaks, weakening the case for lockdown panic.

Pivotal Quotes: "Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place." — Kamala Harris (video narration): Used to argue that fairness should be judged by equal outcome rather than equal opportunity. "The Democratic Party has been hiding their agenda behind the Potemkin village that is Joe Biden." — Ben Shapiro: Explaining his view that Biden is a moderate facade for a more radical Harris-led agenda. "It's a choice between a deadly Biden lockdown or a safe vaccine that ends the pandemic." — Donald Trump: Trump’s closing pitch contrasting reopening and economic recovery with continued lockdowns.

Implications: Listeners are told the election is not over and that turnout, Florida, and Pennsylvania will determine the outcome. The episode also warns that Biden-Harris would move quickly toward progressive, lockdown-heavy, and identity-based governance.