Ep. 1333 - Joe Biden’s Presidency is Collapsing

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that Biden’s credibility and governing power are rapidly eroding due to the Afghanistan withdrawal, weak poll numbers, and a poor jobs report. Shapiro claims this weakens Biden’s ability to pass a $3.5 trillion spending bill, empowering Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to block the agenda and creating broader political and economic instability.

Main Topics: Afghanistan as a credibility collapse (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro frames the Afghanistan withdrawal as the central catalyst for Biden’s loss of trust, arguing it exposed incompetence, abandoned allies, and undermined claims about leadership and human rights. Biden’s declining approval and political leverage (Priority: 5/5): The transcript argues Biden’s low approval ratings reduce his ability to pressure moderates like Manchin and Sinema, because his popularity can no longer provide electoral cover for controversial legislation. Joe Manchin’s resistance to the spending bill (Priority: 5/5): Manchin’s Wall Street Journal op-ed is presented as a major obstacle to Biden’s domestic agenda, with the host emphasizing his call for a pause on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. Economic concerns: inflation, debt, and jobs (Priority: 4/5): The show argues that Biden’s spending plans and pandemic-era policy distortions are worsening inflation, expanding debt, and weakening the labor market, as shown by the August jobs report. Media and fact-checker spin (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro criticizes mainstream media and fact-checkers for minimizing Biden’s failures and focusing on narrow corrections rather than the broader narrative of collapse in Afghanistan and at home. Foreign policy hypocrisy and rhetoric (Priority: 4/5): The host says Biden’s rhetoric about ‘never again’ is undermined by his policies toward Iran, Afghanistan, China, and Palestinians, portraying him as inconsistent and unserious on human rights.

Key Arguments: Biden’s approval ratings matter more than usual because Democrats need near-unified support to pass major legislation through reconciliation. Afghanistan damaged Biden’s reputation so severely that even moderates and swing-state Democrats may no longer want to align themselves with him. Manchin’s demand for a strategic pause signals that Biden cannot count on automatic support for the social-spending package. The administration’s handling of Afghanistan left Americans, green card holders, and U.S.-funded personnel behind, which Shapiro treats as evidence of failure. Mainstream media are allegedly protecting Biden by fact-checking minor details while ignoring larger falsehoods and policy failures. Biden’s spending agenda is tied to inflation, debt growth, and a weakening labor market, making the economic case against the bill stronger. The hosts argue that Biden’s claim to defend human rights is contradicted by his actions in Afghanistan, Iran policy, China policy, and the handling of Afghan women and allies.

Data Points: Biden approval rating: 43% - NPR/PBS NewsHour-Marist poll cited as evidence of cratering approval Net approval rating: -8 - Biden’s net approval after the Afghanistan withdrawal in Marist polling Disapprove of Afghanistan withdrawal: 61% - Marist poll on Biden’s handling of the withdrawal U.S. role in Afghanistan seen as failure: 71% - Marist poll finding public judgment on the war Withdrawal left U.S. less safe: 44% - ABC News poll cited by Shapiro Withdrawal made U.S. safer: 8% - ABC News poll cited by Shapiro War worth fighting: 36% - Poll figure mentioned in the discussion of Afghanistan Support for withdrawing from Afghanistan: 77% - Poll figure cited to show support for exit despite criticism of execution Jobs created in August: 235,000 - BLS jobs report contrasted with economists’ expectations Economists’ forecast: 725,000 - Expected August job growth before the disappointing report Open jobs in U.S.: more than 10 million - Used to argue labor-market distortion and weak incentive structures Retail jobs lost: almost 30,000 - Sector losses in August jobs report Restaurant jobs lost: 42,000 - Sector losses in August jobs report Entertainment jobs gained: 36,000 - Sector gains noted in the jobs report U.S. national debt: nearly $29 trillion - Used in the Manchin/debt discussion Debt as share of GDP: 98.2% - Cited to argue fiscal risk is nearing dangerous territory Pandemic spending: more than $5 trillion - Amount spent over 18 months responding to COVID-19 Biden approval drop: 6 percentage points - Cited as decline from the August Marist poll

Pivotal Quotes: "If Joe Biden's popularity craters, therefore, his chances of being able to ram through his agenda completely fall apart." — Ben Shapiro: Explaining why Biden’s approval rating is politically decisive for the legislative agenda "I, for one, won't support a $3.5 trillion bill or anywhere near that level of additional spending without greater clarity." — Joe Manchin: From Manchin’s Wall Street Journal op-ed arguing for a pause on reconciliation spending "I think the administration is getting beaten up on this a little bit too much because there's a lot of blame to go around from four different presidents." — Don Lemon: Media defense of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal

Implications: The episode suggests Biden’s agenda is vulnerable on both policy and political grounds: weaker polls, Afghanistan fallout, and economic concerns may stall major spending, empower moderates, and deepen partisan conflict over the future of the administration.