Ep. 1403 - Happy New Year, Everyone Is Still Stupid

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that Omicron exposed the futility of COVID panic, lockdowns, mass testing, and cloth-mask mandates, while Democratic and media figures belatedly adopt more flexible positions. Shapiro contrasts Biden, AOC, Fauci, and mainstream media behavior with the reality of low death rates, then pivots to arguing Democrats are weaponizing January 6th to justify voting-law changes and protect their political prospects in 2022.

Main Topics: Omicron, risk, and the collapse of lockdown logic (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says Omicron is highly transmissible but much less deadly, making prior panic-oriented COVID policy look irrational and forcing even left-leaning figures to accept a more realistic risk-reward framework. Hypocrisy of Democratic leaders and media figures (Priority: 5/5): He highlights Biden leaving for Delaware and AOC vacationing in Florida while criticizing Ron DeSantis, arguing they ignore their own actions while attacking Republican governors and policies. Media and public-health institutions reversing course (Priority: 5/5): Chris Hayes, Fauci, Gottlieb, the CDC, and CNN are presented as late adopters of claims Shapiro says conservatives made earlier: that COVID should be treated more like a manageable endemic illness. Testing, masking, and quarantine policy failures (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues mass testing of asymptomatic people, five-day quarantine debates, and cloth masks are ineffective against Omicron and reflect a desire to preserve control rather than follow science. 2022 electoral panic and Democratic messaging (Priority: 5/5): He claims Democrats fear a red wave, worsening economic conditions, and voter backlash, so they are trying to redirect attention away from inflation, COVID policy, and Biden’s approval problems. January 6th as political counterprogramming (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues Democrats and the media are amplifying January 6th to sustain fear, frame Republicans as anti-democratic, and build momentum for federal voting-law changes and filibuster elimination.

Key Arguments: Omicron’s transmissibility is high, but its lower severity means society must resume normal risk management instead of endless emergency measures. The left is only now acknowledging ideas that were previously dismissed or censored, such as natural immunity, limited mask efficacy, and the need to balance public health with social function. Biden and AOC are portrayed as hypocritical for downplaying their own travel/vacation choices while condemning Republican states and leaders. Mass testing and long quarantines create a soft lockdown that harms businesses and essential workers without meaningfully stopping Omicron spread. Democrats and the media are using January 6th as a substitute narrative because COVID fear is fading and 2022 political conditions look bad. The push to federalize election rules is framed as an attempt to lock in Democratic advantage before a likely midterm defeat. Public fear has been inflated by two years of rhetoric, so even sensible policy shifts now generate resistance from a scared public.

Data Points: Omicron transmissibility vs original variant: 140 times as transmissible - Shapiro cites this to explain why nearly everyone will be exposed. Omicron transmissibility vs Delta: 70 times as transmissible - Used to support the claim that spread is unavoidable. Omicron deadliness vs Delta: about 20% as deadly - Shapiro argues this makes Omicron much less alarming. California daily deaths: about 65 deaths a day - Shapiro says California deaths are lower than in September despite rising cases. California daily cases: about 60,000 new cases a day - Referenced to show cases can spike without matching deaths. New York daily deaths: 7-day running average of 33 - Used to illustrate low mortality despite exponential case growth. New York daily cases: about 45,000 new cases a day - Presented alongside flat death trends. Florida daily deaths: 22 to 24 deaths on the 7-day rolling average - Shown to argue media panic over Florida is exaggerated. Florida daily cases: 76,000 new cases on December 31, 2021 - Illustrates Omicron spread in a state the media criticizes. South Africa vaccination rate: around 30% - Shapiro uses this to discuss Fauci’s comments on natural immunity. New York City test positivity rate: above 20% - Used to support the argument that mandates and testing are not controlling spread. S&P 500 performance in 2021: 27% gain - Mentioned in a broader discussion of economic conditions and Fed tightening. Unemployment policy effect: 14 percentage point increase in flow from unemployment to employment - Cited from Wall Street Journal editorial board data on ending enhanced benefits early. Prime-age unemployment improvement: 0.7 percentage points lower in August - Projected if 24 states had ended big benefits in June rather than later. National unemployment improvement: 0.3 percentage points lower - Estimated effect had all states ended benefits early. Public support for violence against government: 34% overall - Quoted from a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll referenced by Politico. Republicans saying violence sometimes justified: 40% - Same poll, used in January 6th alarmism discussion. Independents saying violence sometimes justified: 41% - Shapiro argues the poll question is overly broad. Democrats saying violence sometimes justified: 23% - Compared to Republicans and independents. CBS/YouGov view of January 6th: 68% see it as a harbinger of increasing political violence - Used to show public fear of political instability. Trump voters wanting him to retake presidency now: 12% of the country / a fifth of Trump 2020 voters - Shapiro notes the figure is only about 4% when narrowed further.

Pivotal Quotes: "There is no federal solution for COVID." — Joe Biden: Biden is quoted while Shapiro argues his administration still seeks federal control through mandates. "Cloth masks aren't going to provide a lot of protection. That's the bottom line." — Scott Gottlieb: Used to show former high-profile COVID hawks adopting positions Shapiro says were obvious earlier. "Every day is January 6th now." — The New York Times: Illustrates Shapiro’s claim that the media is keeping the Capitol riot in the foreground to drive political fear.

Implications: Shapiro predicts Omicron will accelerate public fatigue with COVID restrictions, weaken Democratic messaging, and intensify conflict over voting laws and federal power heading into the 2022 midterms.