Ep. 1442 - Joe Biden Is Still Leading From Behind

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the unexpectedly strong Ukrainian resistance, and the West’s escalating sanctions and military support. Ben Shapiro argues Putin’s aggression has exposed the failure of post-Cold War assumptions about peace, globalization, and deterrence, while also serving as a referendum on Biden’s weak leadership and low approval ratings. The show also previews a politically charged State of the Union response.

Main Topics: Ukraine’s resistance and battlefield situation (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro highlights that Russian forces have failed to quickly take Kyiv and other major cities, crediting Ukrainian forces and Zelensky’s leadership for holding out despite being vastly outgunned. Putin’s nuclear alert and escalation risk (Priority: 5/5): The transcript emphasizes Putin placing nuclear forces on high alert as a pressure tactic, raising fears of escalation even if actual nuclear use is framed as unlikely. Western sanctions and Europe’s response (Priority: 5/5): The EU, UK, Canada, and the U.S. impose major sanctions, including SWIFT restrictions and central bank asset freezes, while Europe takes a more forceful role than the U.S. expected. Biden’s approval and political vulnerability (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues Biden is politically weakened, with approval ratings in the high 30s and a State of the Union that will be shaped by crises Biden allegedly caused or mishandled. Energy dependence, sanctions limits, and rearmament (Priority: 4/5): The discussion claims Europe’s dependence on Russian energy limits sanctions, but the crisis is pushing Germany and others toward higher defense spending and energy diversification. End of post-Cold War foreign policy assumptions (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro frames the war as proof that globalization, soft deterrence, and the idea that major power conflict had ended were illusions; he argues spheres of influence and resource competition remain central. China-Russia alignment and future conflict (Priority: 4/5): The episode suggests China is unlikely to condemn Russia and may be using the crisis as a model for Taiwan, with semiconductors and resource competition presented as future flashpoints.

Key Arguments: Ukraine’s defense has been unexpectedly effective given the massive disparity in military budgets and firepower. Putin’s nuclear alert is mainly coercive signaling, not necessarily an imminent launch, but it raises global anxiety. Europe, not the White House, appears to have driven the most consequential sanctions and military-response shifts. Germany’s move to raise defense spending and build gas reserves vindicates long-criticized Trump-era warnings about NATO burden-sharing and energy dependence. Biden’s record—especially Afghanistan, inflation, the border, and foreign-policy weakness—has contributed to his low approval and undermines claims of strong leadership. The war reveals that the post-Cold War belief in an end to major-power conflict was wrong; human nature, power politics, and resource competition persist. China’s relationship with Russia makes a clean Western strategy harder, and the crisis may embolden Beijing regarding Taiwan.

Data Points: Ukraine defense budget: about $6 billion - Used to illustrate the scale gap between Ukrainian and Russian military capacity Russia defense budget: about 10x Ukraine’s budget - Comparison from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute cited in the transcript Russian ruble decline: lost more than 30% against the U.S. dollar; traded at 109 per dollar; fell as much as 40% intraday - Market reaction to sanctions and invasion Russian central bank rate: raised to 20% from 9.5% - Emergency measure to stabilize the ruble and financial system Refugees fled Ukraine: more than 500,000 - Mentioned in the context of humanitarian fallout New Ukrainian troops mobilized: 100,000 - Kiev’s efforts to bolster defenses during the invasion Biden approval (Harvard Harris): 38% overall - Recent poll showing poor public support before the State of the Union Biden approval on economy: 33% - Harvard Harris polling on issue-specific approval Biden approval on immigration: 33% - Harvard Harris polling on issue-specific approval Biden approval on foreign affairs: 32% - Harvard Harris polling on issue-specific approval Biden approval on crime: 33% - Harvard Harris polling on issue-specific approval Biden approval on inflation: 28% - Harvard Harris polling on issue-specific approval Washington Post-ABC approval rating: 37% approve, 55% disapprove - Poll cited as evidence of broad pessimism Independent disapproval: 61% of independents rate Biden negatively - Washington Post-ABC poll Congress preference: 50% prefer Republicans, 40% Democrats - Washington Post-ABC poll on who should control Congress U.S. energy imports from Russia: hundreds of thousands of barrels per day - Shapiro argues the U.S. still imports Russian oil despite having domestic capacity German defense spending plan: 100 billion euros - Olaf Scholz’s announcement of major military rearmament Germany gas dependence: more than half of gas from Russia - Explains why Germany’s energy policy shift is significant EU sanctions action: ban Russian planes from EU airspace; finance arms purchases; sanction Belarus similarly - Key Western response to the invasion Capitol Hill mask policy change: masks optional starting the day before the State of the Union - Presented as politically timed rather than science-driven

Pivotal Quotes: "I will destroy his State of the Union with facts and logic precisely 15 minutes after his State of the Union address ends." — Ben Shapiro: Promo for Shapiro’s planned live response to Biden’s State of the Union "Send ammunition. I don't need it. I don't need an exit. I need ammunition." — Ben Shapiro (quoting Zelensky): Used to describe Zelensky as an iconic wartime leader "It turns out the old ways of politics remain, because all politics are are an extension of human nature, and human nature does not change." — Ben Shapiro: Core thesis of the segment about war, power, and international politics

Implications: The episode argues the Ukraine war is forcing a return to hard-power geopolitics: rearmament, energy independence, and stronger alliances. For listeners, it frames Biden’s weakness and Europe’s dependence as key risks shaping inflation, security, and the future balance of power.