Ep. 1499 - Joe Biden’s Stagflation Cannot Be Escaped

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues the U.S. is sliding toward stagflation, with inflation still high, growth weakening, consumer delinquencies rising, and policymakers offering poor fixes like tax hikes and anti-corporate rhetoric. Shapiro also attacks COVID policy reversals, Biden’s credibility on Hunter/China, Democrats’ abortion pivot, media bias, and anti-Musk narratives.

Main Topics: Economic slowdown and stagflation fears (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro frames the economy as moving toward stagflation: weakening stocks, falling bond yields, recession fears, and persistent inflation. He argues the Biden administration is worsening conditions by misunderstanding the problem and proposing harmful remedies. Consumer distress and credit deterioration (Priority: 5/5): He highlights rising unemployment claims, falling home sales, and increasing delinquencies in subprime auto, personal loans, and credit cards as evidence that households—especially lower-credit borrowers—are under strain from inflation and tighter monetary policy. Retirement, labor force participation, and inflation pressure (Priority: 4/5): The show notes that many older Americans are returning to work because inflation is eroding fixed incomes. Shapiro uses this to argue that labor market patterns are changing in ways that reflect economic stress rather than broad prosperity. COVID policy and public health messaging (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro criticizes renewed CDC booster recommendations for children and a return to masking guidance, presenting them as further evidence that health authorities have overreached and failed to learn from earlier mistakes. Biden credibility, Hunter Biden, and media belatedness (Priority: 4/5): He revisits Joe Biden’s denial that Hunter Biden made money from China, citing new reporting on Hunter’s income and spending to argue the president lied and the media ignored it until now. Democrats pivoting to abortion and culture-war framing (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro argues Democrats are unable to defend their economic record, so they are switching to abortion, contraception, and same-sex marriage to mobilize voters and distract from inflation and governance failures. Elon Musk, Twitter moderation, and media attack campaigns (Priority: 3/5): The episode discusses Twitter’s new moderation plan and a report alleging Musk misconduct, which Shapiro portrays as a politically timed media attack intended to discredit him after he distanced himself from Democrats.

Key Arguments: Stagflation is becoming the most likely economic scenario because inflation remains high while growth and market confidence are weakening. The Biden administration’s proposed response—raising taxes and punishing corporations—would likely reduce investment and employment without solving inflation. Rising delinquencies in subprime lending suggest the consumer credit environment is deteriorating and could foreshadow broader financial stress. Older workers returning to the labor market show inflation is forcing people on fixed incomes back into work, not that the economy is healthy. COVID authorities are again recommending masks and boosters despite limited evidence of effectiveness, reflecting policy failure and overreach. Joe Biden misled the public about Hunter Biden’s China ties, and the media only later began to acknowledge the issue. Democrats are using abortion and related rights as a political distraction because their economic message is failing. Twitter’s planned misinformation guardrails and the Musk allegations are presented as examples of biased institutions trying to control narratives and target opponents.

Data Points: S&P 500: “flirting with a bear market” - Market sell-off driven by recession fears Weekly major index losses: At least 2.9% - U.S. indices on track for weekly declines 10-year Treasury yield: 2.854% - Fell from 2.884% as investors moved into bonds Initial unemployment claims: Rose for the third week in a row - Labor Department data cited as evidence of strain Home prices: Reached a high in April - But sales are falling, signaling possible housing slowdown Subprime credit card/personal loan delinquencies: Rising for the eighth consecutive month - Equifax data showing deterioration in lower-credit borrowers Subprime car loan and lease delinquencies: All-time high in February - Equifax tracking since 2007 Age 55–64 labor force participation: Nearly 64% working in April - Essentially back to February 2020 levels Age 20–24 labor force participation: About 5% below pre-pandemic level - Younger workers lagging in recovery CNN poll: 86% somewhat scared - Americans’ mood about U.S. direction CNN poll optimism/excitement: 14% combined - 10% optimistic, 4% excited Inflation rate: 8.3% - Referenced as the latest annualized reading Previous month inflation rate: 8.5% - Used to argue inflation is slowing only slightly Fund managers expecting stagflation: 77% - Bank of America Global Research survey cited as highest since August 2008 Baby formula guidance: Call OB-GYN/pediatrician for samples - White House tweet cited as its response to shortages Hunter Biden income: Around $11 million - New scrutiny of his business dealings Hunter Biden spending: More than $200,000 per month - NBC report from Oct. 2017 to Feb. 2018 Twitter moderation definition: Crises involving widespread threat to life, safety, health, or subsistence - Company’s new content policy framework Elon Musk settlement allegation: $250,000 - Reported severance/agreement with a flight attendant New York map challenge spending: Tens of thousands of dollars - Hakeem Jeffries’ digital ad campaign against redistricting

Pivotal Quotes: "What is unavoidable is stagflation." — Ben Shapiro: He summarizes his view that inflation and slowing growth are converging "If we can continue that deficit reduction, then we will continue from a fiscal policy perspective to reduce price pressures in the economy." — Brian Deese: Biden NEC director describing tax/deficit policy as an anti-inflation tool "It would be a direct assault on the fundamental right to self-determination, to live and love without interference from the government." — Kamala Harris: She argues against overturning Roe v. Wade and broadens the issue beyond abortion

Implications: Listeners are being warned to expect continued inflation, weaker growth, tighter credit, and more politicized policy responses. The show predicts Democrats will lean harder on abortion, COVID, and narrative management as economic pain grows.