Ep. 1518 - Biden Falls Off A Bike, Literally

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro argues that Biden’s public decline, falling approval, and an approaching recession reflect a broader collapse of elite consensus in politics, economics, energy, and culture. He links inflation, weak foreign policy, and rising secularism to left-wing governance failures, while predicting backlash on social issues like gender, abortion, and education.

Main Topics: Biden’s bicycle fall and age concerns (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro uses Biden’s bike tumble and awkward public moments to argue the president is visibly frail, politically weak, and unfit to run again in 2024. 2024 election viability and Democratic panic (Priority: 5/5): He cites polling and media commentary showing broad resistance to Biden’s reelection bid and uncertainty about Kamala Harris or any other viable Democratic successor. Recession, inflation, and failed economic policy (Priority: 5/5): The episode argues the U.S. is nearing or already in recession, with inflation persisting because Biden-era policy has not increased supply or energy production effectively. Energy crisis, Ukraine war, and European policy failures (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro connects the war in Ukraine, Russian leverage over energy, and Europe’s return to coal with the failure of green-transition and anti-fossil-fuel policies. Declining belief in God and cultural fragmentation (Priority: 5/5): He frames Gallup’s decline in belief in God as evidence of a broader moral and civilizational breakdown concentrated among liberals and Democrats. Social backlash on trans issues, abortion, and children (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues that schools, corporations, and activists have pushed too far on gender and abortion, triggering backlash in sports, schools, and entertainment. Disney/Lightyear backlash and “woke” media backlash (Priority: 4/5): He uses Lightyear’s box-office underperformance as proof that audiences reject overt ideological marketing in children’s entertainment.

Key Arguments: Biden’s bike fall symbolizes a broader inability to project strength or competence, reinforcing concerns about his age and decline. Polling shows most voters do not want Biden to run again, and even many Democrats are uneasy about his candidacy. Inflation and recession risk are being driven by weak supply-side policy, especially in energy, where the administration has failed to expand production. Raising interest rates may slow inflation but risks recession; the administration’s proposed fixes (rebate cards, pressure campaigns) are inadequate. Europe’s energy crisis shows the cost of replacing reliable energy with symbolic green policy and foreign dependence on Russia. The decline in belief in God is not evenly distributed; it is concentrated on the liberal left, suggesting a cultural and moral split rather than a universal trend. The left’s push on gender ideology and abortion is causing backlash because it conflicts with reality, parent concerns, and traditional moral intuitions. Entertainment companies suffer when they turn children’s movies into ideological statements, as seen in Lightyear’s weak opening.

Data Points: Biden approval/reelection concern: 64% of voters say Biden should not run again in 2024 - Yahoo YouGov poll cited in the segment Trump reelection concern: 55% say Trump should not run again - Same Yahoo YouGov poll Biden yes to run: 21% - Yahoo YouGov poll on Biden running again Trump yes to run: 31% - Yahoo YouGov poll on Trump running again 2020 Biden voters opposing rerun: 40% no vs. 37% yes - Poll subgroup of 2020 Biden voters Biden vs. Trump head-to-head: 42% Trump, 39% Biden - Direct matchup cited from Yahoo YouGov Recession probability: 44% - Wall Street Journal economist survey for next 12 months Previous recession probability estimate: 28% - WSJ survey from April January recession probability estimate: 18% - WSJ survey from January Inflation forecast: 7% by end of year - WSJ economist survey Fed rate range after hike: 1.5% to 1.75% - After 75-basis-point increase Biden age on Nov. 20: 80 - Discussing why reelection is controversial Possible age at second-term start: 82 - If reelected Belief in God among U.S. adults: 81% - Gallup poll, lowest on record Nonbelief in God: 17% - Gallup poll Belief in God among 18–29-year-olds: 68% - Gallup age subgroup, down 10 points since 2017 Belief in God among conservatives: 94% - Gallup political subgroup Belief in God among liberals: 62% - Gallup political subgroup, down from 73% in 2017 Belief in God among Democrats: 72% - Gallup political subgroup, down from 84% in 2017 Lightyear opening weekend: $51 million - Three-day Father’s Day weekend opening Lightyear expected opening range: $76–$100 million - Industry projections cited in the segment Lightyear production budget: $200 million - Film budget mentioned World Swimming transgender rule: Transition before age 12 only - FINA policy cited in the segment France National Assembly seats for Macron alliance: 245 of 577 - French parliamentary election results France National Rally seats: 89 - French parliamentary election results France left coalition seats: 131 - French parliamentary election results France conservatives and allies seats: 61 - French parliamentary election results Colombian election result: 51% to 47% - Gustavo Petro defeated Rodolfo Hernandez

Pivotal Quotes: "Joe Biden didn’t fall off a moving bike. Joe Biden fell off a stationary bike." — Ben Shapiro: Commentary on the viral bicycle mishap and what it symbolizes politically "You can prop El Cid on that horse, but if El Cid loses his balance, it becomes quite obvious to everyone that El Cid is no longer with us." — Ben Shapiro: Analogy for Democrats propping up Biden despite visible decline "The most important thing is to win the next election." — Hillary Clinton: Used to illustrate the Democratic Party’s electoral anxiety and pragmatic focus

Implications: Shapiro predicts deeper political polarization as voters reject elite messaging on economics, energy, and social issues. He sees growing backlash against progressive cultural projects and a likely 2024 crisis for Democrats if Biden remains their nominee.