Ep. 1609 - All The Single Ladies Voted Democrat

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on post-midterm analysis: delayed vote counts in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, Republican underperformance in the House, and a broader explanation for why Democrats outperformed expectations. Ben Shapiro argues that unmarried women—especially those affected by the decline of marriage and family institutions—formed a key Democratic voting bloc, driven by dependence on government, abortion politics, and the social effects of marital breakdown.

Main Topics: Midterm vote counting and Republican underperformance (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro reviews late-counting races in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, noting Republicans appear to have underperformed expectations in the Senate and House. He highlights narrow margins, possible recounts, and a shrinking projected GOP House majority. Single women as a decisive Democratic voting bloc (Priority: 5/5): The core thesis is that unmarried women voted overwhelmingly Democratic and helped offset Republican gains. Shapiro cites exit-poll data showing single women backed Democrats by a wide margin and argues this explains Biden’s post-election praise of women. Marriage as a social institution and its decline (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues marriage has been redefined from a public, socially reinforced institution into a private arrangement, weakening civil society and increasing atomization, especially among women. Divorce, cohabitation, and the hollowing out of civil society (Priority: 4/5): He links no-fault divorce, rising cohabitation, and declining marriage rates to social fragmentation. This breakdown, he argues, makes individuals more dependent on the federal government. Abortion politics and unmarried women (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro contends that single and cohabiting women are especially motivated by abortion access because they are more likely to see children as a burden rather than an organizing social good. Parents and local institutions shifting right (Priority: 3/5): He concludes that while unmarried women moved left, parents and school-board voters are increasingly mobilizing around kids, schools, and local control, pushing those issues rightward.

Key Arguments: Republicans’ midterm performance was weaker than expected, with the House majority shrinking to a razor-thin margin and key Senate races still unresolved. Exit polling suggests unmarried women voted heavily Democratic, while married men and married women leaned Republican. There was no major youth turnout surge; the idea that young voters propelled Democrats is challenged by turnout data. Marriage changes political behavior because it creates different interests, especially around children, community, and government interference. The decline of marriage and rise of cohabitation have weakened civil society and expanded the role of the federal government in people’s lives. No-fault divorce and the reframing of marriage as a private choice helped reduce marriage rates and increase single-adult households. Single women are more likely to support abortion rights because many are not embedded in stable family structures and may see childbearing as a constraint. Parents, unlike single adults, are increasingly organized around schools and child-related institutions, which may drive future political shifts.

Data Points: Blake Masters deficit in Arizona Senate race: Over 100,000 votes behind Mark Kelly - Used to indicate Republicans are likely to lose the Arizona Senate seat. Laxalt advantage in Nevada Senate race: About 9,000 votes - Described as a very close race with remaining ballots still being counted. Carrie Lake deficit in Arizona governor race: About 27,000 votes behind - Mentioned while noting only 82% of the vote had been counted. Arizona ballots remaining: 675,000 ballots - CNN estimate of uncounted ballots still outstanding. Maricopa County remaining ballots: About 400,000 ballots - Most of Arizona’s outstanding ballots were in the state’s largest county. Election-day drop-off ballots in Maricopa County: About 290,000 ballots - These required processing before counting, contributing to delay. Printer-error ballots in Maricopa County: About 17,000 ballots - Ballots rejected by tabulators on election day needed to be counted separately. Pima County uncounted ballots: Roughly 159,000 ballots - County expected completion around November 14th or 15th. Clark County postmark ballots received Wednesday: More than 12,000 - Late-arriving mail ballots in Nevada contributed to continued uncertainty. Clark County postmark ballots received Thursday: About 626 ballots - Illustrates the slowing flow of late ballots. Projected House majority: About 220 seats, roughly a 3-seat majority - NBC’s Steve Kornacki projection cited by Shapiro. Single women vote share: 68% Democrat to 31% Republican - Exit-poll breakdown by marital status that drives the episode’s main thesis. Married men vote share: 59% Republican to 39% Democrat - Shows married men leaning strongly Republican. Married women vote share: 56% Republican to 42% Democrat - Contrasts sharply with unmarried women. Unmarried men vote share: 52% Republican to 45% Democrat - Single men still lean Republican, though less strongly than married men. Adults with lived-in partner vs ever married: Living with a romantic partner is now more common than ever being married - Pew Research finding used to support the claim of marriage decline. Acceptance of unmarried cohabitation among ages 18-29: 78% say it is acceptable - Illustrates changing cultural norms. Adults who say marriage is essential for a fulfilling life: 16% for men; 17% for women - Pew data showing reduced perceived importance of marriage. Adults who say marriage is important but not essential: 54% - Majority view in Pew survey. Adults who say marriage is not important for a fulfilling life: 30% - Shows scale of institutional devaluation. Marriage rate per 1,000 people in U.S.: Fell from near 10 historically to 6.8 - Shapiro uses long-term trend to show decline in marriage. Married share of ages 25-54: 67% in 1990 to 53% in 2019 - Pew data on the shrinking married adult population. Cohabiting share of ages 25-54: 4% in 1990 to 9% in 2019 - Shows growth of non-marital partnership. Unpartnered share of ages 25-54: 29% in 1990 to 38% in 2019 - Indicates more adults living without a spouse or partner. Average age of first marriage for women: About 20 in 1950 to 27 in 2010 - Shows delayed family formation. Average age of first marriage for men: About 24 in 1950 to over 28 in 2010 - Likewise demonstrates later marriage. Women with bachelor’s degrees: 12% in 1970 to 46% in 2021 - Shows educational gains among women. Men with bachelor’s degrees: 20% in 1970 to 36% in 2021 - Women have now surpassed men in degree attainment. Single women labor force participation: About 80% in the 1950s and about 80% in 1985 - Shapiro argues single women were always working, unlike the change seen among married women. Partnered adults’ median earnings: $49,000 - Pew comparison of partnered versus unpartnered adults. Single adults’ median earnings: $35,000 - Lower earnings cited as a reason for greater dependence on government support. Married women with abortion history: 14% - Guttmacher statistic cited to argue most abortion seekers are not married. Cohabiting women with abortion history: 31% - Part of the abortion-demographics breakdown. Never-married single women with abortion history: 46% - Largest category among abortion seekers in the cited data. Previously married but now single women with abortion history: 9% - Additional share of abortion seekers. Women who obtained an abortion and voted for Biden: 68% - Used to connect abortion politics to Democratic support. Women who obtained an abortion and voted for Trump: 32% - Shows partisan split among abortion-related voters.

Pivotal Quotes: "women in America made their voices heard, man ... y'all showed up and beat the hell out of them" — Joe Biden: Biden celebrating women’s midterm role, which Shapiro interprets as mainly unmarried women. "There was no youthquake." — David Shor: Data-science rebuttal to the claim that young voters powered Democratic gains. "The redefinition of marriage is what happened." — Ben Shapiro: Central thesis linking marriage decline to political and social change.

Implications: If marriage and family remain weak, unmarried adults—especially women—may stay politically aligned with bigger government and abortion rights, while parents and local communities become the main counterweight in future elections.