Ep. 1762 - The Trump Wave Builds

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that 2024 may become an anti-Biden election rather than an anti-Trump one: Biden’s weak approval, economic dissatisfaction, and foreign-policy drift are fueling Democratic apathy, third-party risks, and chatter about replacing him. The show contrasts that with Trump’s enduring base appeal, while closing with culture-war commentary on gender politics and cancel culture.

Main Topics: 2024 race as a referendum on Biden rather than Trump (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues polling suggests Trump’s ceiling is known, while Biden’s low support and likely Democratic apathy create a path for Trump that resembles the anti-Hillary dynamic of 2016. Poll numbers and turnout dynamics (Priority: 5/5): He emphasizes Biden’s inability to break above the low-to-mid 40s and points to undecideds, third-party leaners, and likely nonvoters as the key hidden variable in the race. Biden’s image problem and party unease (Priority: 4/5): The transcript highlights stories about Biden’s temper, aging, public awkwardness, and verbal slippage, arguing that Democrats are privately worried but lack a strong alternative. Economy and Bidenomics (Priority: 5/5): The segment frames inflation, high interest rates, and recession fears as central liabilities for Biden, with listeners warned that the economy could worsen before the election. Ukraine war and Biden’s foreign-policy failure (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro contends the war has become a stalemate with no clear off-ramp, and says Biden’s refusal to force a negotiated settlement is prolonging the conflict without strategic gain. Trump’s durability and DeSantis’ challenge (Priority: 4/5): Trump’s public appearances are presented as politically potent, while DeSantis is said to need sharper confrontation with the media to break through against Trump’s aggression-based brand. Culture-war commentary: land claims, transgender medicine, and Jonah Hill (Priority: 3/5): The episode closes with praise for a Native American tribe calling out Ben & Jerry’s, support for Tennessee’s minors’ gender-care ban, and criticism of a Jonah Hill-related abuse narrative as overreach.

Key Arguments: Biden’s polling is consistently stuck below normal incumbent levels; the problem is not Trump’s popularity but Biden’s weakness and lack of enthusiasm. The 2024 electorate may be smaller and more apathetic than 2020, when pandemic-era turnout inflated totals; lower turnout would likely hurt Democrats more than Republicans. Undecided voters in current polls are less a swing bloc than a disengaged bloc; many may simply stay home, which benefits Trump. Democrats are trapped defending Biden because they lack a clearly viable replacement, and each discussed alternative has major liabilities. Biden’s economic record is a major political drag: inflation remains elevated, borrowing costs are high, and voters fear the delayed effects of tighter monetary policy. The Ukraine strategy lacks an endgame; the U.S. and NATO are funding a stalemate without clearly defined achievable objectives, which is politically and strategically unsound. Trump remains electorally potent because his supporters respond to aggression and because his controversies are already fully baked into public opinion. DeSantis needs to re-create the kind of media confrontation that first elevated him in Florida, or he will struggle to dislodge Trump in the primary. The Jonah Hill controversy is framed as a misuse of victim language for ordinary relationship conflict rather than genuine abuse. Gender-affirming care bans for minors are portrayed as common-sense child protection rather than radical policy.

Data Points: RealClearPolitics Trump-Biden average: Trump 44.1%, Biden 43.5% - Used to show Trump is at or near parity nationally. Economist/YouGov poll: Trump 44%, Biden 40% - Cited as evidence of Biden’s weakness and high noncommittal share. Messenger/Harris X poll: Trump 45%, Biden 43% - Used to illustrate Trump leading in some national polls. Harvard-Harris / Rasmussen high-end Trump lead: Up to 6 points - Referenced as outlier polls showing stronger Trump performance. Obama 2012 polling floor: About 45% at lowest; usually 46-48% - Compared to Biden as a healthier incumbent benchmark. Biden in current matchups: About 41-46% - Shows Biden below the historical incumbent range. Echelon battleground poll: Trump 48%, Biden 40%; 10% unsure - Illustrates a large undecided/apathetic bloc in swing states. Echelon overall race: Trump 43%, Biden 42% - Still leaves substantial undecided support after third-party share. Economist/YouGov undecided/nonvoter split: 16% do not know; 7% say they will not vote; 5% third party; 5% unsure - Used to argue that apathy is a bigger story than swing voting. Messenger/Harris X independents: 21% undecided - Shows weak engagement among independents. Emerson College poll: Biden 44%, Trump 43%; 9% other, 4% undecided - Another example of fragmented support and low commitment. 2020 turnout: 155 million total votes - Described as an unusually high turnout year due to the pandemic. 2020 votes: Biden 81.2-81.3 million; Trump 74 million - Used to emphasize exceptional turnout and Biden’s total. 2016 turnout: About 128 million total votes - Compared to 2020 to show the scale of the turnout jump. Turnout increase from 2016 to 2020: About 23 million more voters - Supports the claim that 2020 was an outlier election. Biden admin inflation: Prices up roughly 10-20% on many products over recent years - Describes voter pain from cumulative inflation. Inflation expectations in WSJ excerpt: Headline inflation around 3%; core inflation around 5% - Context for the claim that inflation is cooling but still stubborn. Fed overnight rate: Around 5% now, up from 1.5% last year - Used to argue tighter money may harm growth and assets. 10-year Treasury yield: Topped 4% - Presented as a warning sign for investors and the bond market. U.S. aid to Ukraine: About $100 billion and potentially rising to $150-$200 billion - Used to argue the war is expensive and open-ended. Brown University LGBTQ+ identification: 38% in 2023 vs. 14% in 2010 - Cited as evidence of social contagion among students. Brown bisexual identification increase: 232% - Used to argue identity trends reflect campus fashion. Ben & Jerry’s land claim: Native chief said tribe is interested in reclaiming stewardship of the land - Discussed as a callout to corporate activism. Tennessee gender-care ruling: Law allowed to take effect by a 6th Circuit panel - Referenced as a significant legal win for minors’ medical restrictions. RFK Jr. fundraising: $3 million in three days; about $1 million per day - Shown as a sign he could influence the race even without winning. Trump favorable/unfavorable: About 38.9% favorable, 55.8% unfavorable - Used to underscore Trump’s high negatives despite electability.

Pivotal Quotes: "The real story here is that Joe Biden can't break wind." — Ben Shapiro: Used to argue Biden, not Trump, is the central polling problem. "What if they're undecided? And at the end of the day, many of them decide, you know what? I don't care. I hate both of them. I'm staying home." — Ben Shapiro: Explains why low enthusiasm may drive turnout collapse rather than vote switching. "We are low on munitions because we have sent so many to Ukraine." — Joe Biden: Quoted while discussing the cluster munitions decision and U.S. stockpile strain.

Implications: If Biden stays weak and turnout softens, Trump can win on apathy rather than popularity. For Democrats, third-party splintering and no clear replacement deepen the risk; for Ukraine and the economy, the show predicts more drift and strain.