Ep. 1790 - Conservatives CAN Win, and Target’s Earnings Prove It

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues conservatives can win by focusing on popular, polarizing issues—especially opposition to transgender messaging aimed at children and Joe Biden’s economy—rather than fixating on 2020 election grievances or Donald Trump’s legal battles. Shapiro frames Target’s sales decline, GOP infighting, and Biden’s climate spending as evidence that the right should prioritize broadly resonant economic and cultural concerns.

Main Topics: Target boycott as a case study in political polarization (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues Target’s sales drop after Pride-month merchandising backlash shows conservatives can successfully pressure large corporations when they choose a widely popular issue and polarize it effectively. Trump, indictments, and electability concerns (Priority: 5/5): He contends Trump’s legal calendar will dominate 2024, but that sympathy for Trump does not equal a winning strategy, citing polling that shows broad public resistance and weak general-election prospects. Republican strategy and the need to focus on winnable issues (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says conservatives should emulate Alinsky-style polarization around popular causes, avoid making 2020 election denial central, and run on issues like parents’ rights, crime, and the economy. Biden economy, inflation, and Democratic messaging (Priority: 5/5): The show criticizes Biden and Democrats for praising the economy while consumers face high prices, mortgage rates, and financial strain, arguing Republicans should make economic pain their top message. GOP dysfunction in key states and the risks of Trump-centric politics (Priority: 4/5): He highlights party dysfunction in Arizona and Michigan, arguing that Trump-aligned state parties are fundraising poorly and undermining broader Republican electoral competitiveness. Biden family corruption and media double standards (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro says the Biden family has a long pattern of corruption that is undercovered, contrasting the media’s treatment of Biden with its aggressive scrutiny of Trump. Culture-war and religious-freedom commentary (Priority: 2/5): The episode closes with criticism of Gavin Newsom’s parental-rights stance and commentary on a Republican congressman’s apology after condemning a Christian statement about salvation through Jesus.

Key Arguments: Conservatives win when they pick popular issues and polarize them; Target’s backlash over Pride merchandising is presented as proof. Target’s sales decline reflects both inflation and consumer rejection of aggressive Pride marketing directed at children. Trump’s indictments may generate sympathy, but his legal battles are likely to consume the 2024 campaign and do not solve his electability problem. Polling showing low support from non-Republicans means Trump cannot win a general election by relying only on the base. Running the 2024 election as a referendum on 2020 or as a loyalty test to Trump would cost Republicans badly, including down-ballot races. Republicans should focus on Biden’s inflation, spending, and corruption rather than shiny-object culture and grievance politics. State parties in Arizona and Michigan are portrayed as examples of how Trump-centric factionalism weakens fundraising, organization, and electoral prospects. Democrats are criticized for excusing or ignoring Biden family corruption while claiming Trump’s election denialism is uniquely dangerous.

Data Points: Republicans winning presidential popular vote: none since 2004 (and before that, 1988) - Used to argue the GOP has struggled to win nationally for decades. Target same-store sales growth (Q2 2023): about -6% year over year - Presented as evidence of consumer backlash and economic pressure. Target stock performance: down about 16% year to date through Tuesday’s close - Cited alongside the sales collapse. TJX comparable sales: up 6% - Used to argue consumers shifted spending away from Target. Trump support among Republicans (AP poll): 63% want him to run again - Shown as strong within-party support but not enough to win nationally. Trump favorable opinion among Republicans: 70% - Used to argue he remains polarizing and electorally weak overall. Trump would support him in November 2024: 74% of Republicans - Shapiro notes this is too low because a quarter of GOP voters may sit out. Americans who would definitely not support Trump: 53% - Used to argue a general-election ceiling is fatal. Americans who would probably not support Trump: 11% - Together with 'definitely not,' Shapiro says 64% would not vote for him. Mortgage rate: 7.16% - Highest level since 2001, used to illustrate economic strain. Minimum Trump vote share needed: about 48% - Shapiro argues he would need roughly this level to win nationally. Economy as top issue: 20% - Ipsos-style polling cited as the leading issue for Americans. Americans saying country is on the wrong track: 69% - Used to suggest Republicans should be positioned to win if they focus on competence. Trump trial dates: NY hush-money: Mar. 25, 2024; classified-docs: May 20, 2024; D.C. case proposed: Jan. 2, 2024; Georgia case: Feb. 2024 - Highlighted as a campaign-consuming legal calendar. Michigan GOP meeting incident: kick to the groin and broken dentures - Illustrates internal party chaos and dysfunction.

Pivotal Quotes: "If Republicans and conservatives wish to win, they need to pick issues that are popular and then they need to run on those issues." — Ben Shapiro: Core thesis on electoral strategy and issue selection. "If the election of 2020 is what they choose to run on in 2024 ... Republicans will lose and they will not lose cheap." — Ben Shapiro: Warning against making election denial the center of the 2024 campaign. "Political parties are supposed to be about victory. They are vehicles for victory." — Ben Shapiro: Explains why he sees Trump-centric party behavior as strategically flawed.

Implications: The episode urges Republicans to pivot from Trump grievances to popular economic and parental-rights issues or risk another costly national and down-ballot defeat. It also forecasts continued GOP fragmentation if state parties remain organized around loyalty rather than electability.