Ep. 291 - Is The Trump Wall Dying?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode argues that Trump’s attacks on Canadian trade barriers are less about leverage than a broader embrace of protectionism, then pivots to a broader critique of Republicans abandoning small-government principles. Shapiro warns against government-as-parent politics, defends hardball shutdown tactics in principle, reports troubling Flynn document withholding, and closes with media/culture commentary on Fox News, Bill Nye, and Chris Pratt.

Main Topics: Trump vs. Canada: tariffs as protectionism, not leverage (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro says Trump is right to criticize Canadian dairy protectionism, but wrong to retaliate with tariffs on Canadian lumber because the lumber fight is longstanding and unrelated. He argues the move mainly serves domestic constituencies and raises costs for American consumers. Republicans and the collapse of small-government rhetoric (Priority: 5/5): A Pew poll is used to argue that Americans, especially Republicans, now favor more government spending under Trump. Shapiro claims conservatives have traded principle for tribal loyalty and now accept bigger government when their side is in power. Government shutdowns and political hardball (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro contends Republicans should not fear shutdowns if they truly believe government is the problem. He argues shutdowns only matter because both parties have normalized big government and should be used as leverage in disputes like the border wall. Mike Flynn document dispute and possible White House cover-up (Priority: 4/5): He reports that the White House is refusing to hand over documents about Michael Flynn’s foreign payments and contacts, calling it a red flag that may indicate deeper trouble for the administration. Fox News, sexual harassment, and media hypocrisy (Priority: 3/5): Shapiro says Fox is under coordinated attack from the left, but also acknowledges years of tolerated misconduct at Fox News. He criticizes media double standards in how allegations against Fox figures are treated versus similar behavior elsewhere. Culture-war messaging: Bill Nye and Chris Pratt (Priority: 3/5): He denounces Bill Nye’s Netflix song about sexuality as vulgar ideological indoctrination and says it misuses science for politics. He also defends Chris Pratt’s comments that blue-collar stories are underrepresented in Hollywood.

Key Arguments: Trump’s criticism of Canadian dairy protectionism is justified, but his lumber tariffs are not true leverage and instead function as protectionism that harms American builders and consumers. The lumber and dairy disputes are unrelated; using one to punish the other is economically incoherent and politically convenient. Republicans have abandoned small-government principles whenever a Republican president is in office, revealing prior anti-Obama rhetoric as tribal rather than ideological. A party that truly believes government is the problem should be willing to withstand or even welcome shutdowns to force concessions. The White House’s refusal to release Flynn-related documents suggests possible concealment and undermines claims that nothing improper occurred. Fox News is simultaneously under partisan attack from the left and guilty of a culture that tolerated sexual misconduct. The left uses entertainment and celebrity culture to smuggle political messaging into the mainstream, often under the guise of science or inclusion. Hollywood and media are structurally out of touch with ordinary Americans, which makes figures like Chris Pratt unusual when they acknowledge it.

Data Points: Canadian softwood lumber share of U.S. imports: nearly 80% - The U.S. buys nearly 80% of all Canadian softwood lumber exports, so tariffs would be paid largely by American builders and consumers. Estimated added cost of a new home: $800 to $1,300 - Cato Institute estimate cited for the cost increase from lumber tariffs. Families priced out of housing market: about 300,000 families - Cited consequence of the added homebuilding costs from lumber tariffs. Worker ratio: more than 25 to 1 - Workers in lumber-using sectors outnumber logging and sawmill workers by this ratio. Republicans favoring more infrastructure spending in 2013: 28% - Used as a baseline to show how Republican attitudes toward spending have changed. Republicans wanting less infrastructure spending in 2013: 21% - Baseline comparison from the Pew poll discussion. Republicans favoring more infrastructure spending today: 55% - Shapiro says this increase is due to Trump-era politics and pro-spending sentiment. Support for more veterans’ benefits spending in 2013: 53% - Pew comparison point. Support for more veterans’ benefits spending today: 75% - Shows a broad rise in support for government spending. Support for more assistance to the needy in the United States in 2013: 27% - Baseline cited in the discussion of increased welfare support. Support for more assistance to the needy in the United States today: 45% - Used to argue that Americans now want more government help than in the Obama era. Support for more assistance to the needy in the world in 2013: 21% - Pew comparison point. Support for more assistance to the needy in the world today: 29% - Another example of increased support for government intervention. Support for more government assistance to the unemployed: 24% to 29% - Shapiro cites this as part of the broader shift toward more government spending.

Pivotal Quotes: "Canada has made business for our dairy farmers in Wisconsin and other border states very difficult. We will not stand for this." — President Trump (tweet cited by Shapiro): Trump’s criticism of Canadian dairy tariffs. "The resulting addition of $800 to $1,300 to the cost of a new home prices some 300,000 families out of the housing market." — Cato Institute (quoted by Shapiro): Used to argue lumber tariffs hurt American consumers and housing affordability. "What he needs to know is he's the father of America." — John Kasich: Kasich’s MSNBC remarks about Trump, used by Shapiro to criticize government-as-parent rhetoric.

Implications: Shapiro’s broader warning is that Trump-era conservatism is drifting into populist big-government nationalism, weakening principle and raising costs. He urges listeners to reject dependency politics, pressure on trade and spending, and culture-war hypocrisy.