Ep. 486 - Wait, Trump Just Said WHAT?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Ben Shapiro argues that Trump’s public openness to sweeping gun-control measures and tariffs reveals an unmoored presidency driven by whoever speaks to him last. He warns these moves are either unconstitutional or economically damaging, then broadens to White House staffing turmoil, Trump’s feud with Jeff Sessions, and Democratic radicalization, especially around Farrakhan and race-based judicial politics.

Main Topics: Trump’s gun-policy meeting and Second Amendment concerns (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro dissects Trump’s remarks in a televised meeting with lawmakers, arguing Trump endorsed gun-control ideas inconsistent with conservative and constitutional principles, including expanded background checks, assault-weapons bans, red-flag laws, and concealed-carry restrictions. Trump’s openness to democratic bargaining vs. legislative reality (Priority: 4/5): He contends the meeting matters less in the short term because Republicans control Congress, but warns it could become dangerous if Democrats regain the House or Senate and Trump’s comments are translated into actual legislation. Tariffs, steel/aluminum, and trade policy criticism (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro strongly condemns Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs as economically ignorant, warning they would raise costs for downstream industries, trigger retaliation, and harm jobs and consumers. White House staffing chaos and influence dynamics (Priority: 4/5): The transcript describes departures or marginalization of Hope Hicks, Jared Kushner, and others, arguing that Trump becomes more dependent on people he personally trusts, such as Peter Navarro, which can shape policy in harmful directions. Trump vs. Jeff Sessions over the DOJ and FISA review (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro defends Sessions’ choice to use an Inspector General investigation rather than letting DOJ investigate itself, while criticizing Trump for publicly berating his attorney general. Democratic radicalism, Farrakhan, and racial politics (Priority: 3/5): The show closes by criticizing Democrats for associating with Louis Farrakhan and for race-based rhetoric in judicial nominations, arguing the left gets a pass on anti-Semitism and identity politics.

Key Arguments: Trump’s gun comments are not merely rhetorical; they would be unconstitutional or anti-conservative if enacted, especially his call to "take the guns first" and do due process later. Pat Toomey was not an NRA puppet; Trump’s claim otherwise is historically inaccurate and embarrassingly counterproductive. Red-flag or gun-violence restraining orders can be consistent with due process only if a hearing and evidentiary standard exist; Trump’s formulation reversed constitutional safeguards. Tariffs on steel and aluminum are a net economic loss because steel is an input for many industries, so protecting a small number of jobs destroys many more elsewhere. Trump’s trade worldview is outdated and zero-sum; comparative advantage means reciprocal tariffs are self-defeating. The president is not an ideological conservative leader but a vehicle whose instincts can shift leftward if unchecked by Congress and staff. Jeff Sessions is acting appropriately by preserving institutional independence through an Inspector General review. Democrats’ condemnation of Trump as a racist is undermined by their tolerance for Farrakhan and race-based selection criteria in judicial appointments.

Data Points: Background-check bill votes: 54 votes - Pat Toomey–Joe Manchin post-Sandy Hook background-check proposal failed to reach 60 votes in the Senate. NRA rating change for Toomey: A to C - Shapiro says Toomey’s NRA rating was downgraded after backing stricter gun legislation. Age to buy a handgun: 21 - Trump and Toomey debate why handgun purchase age differs from rifle purchase age. Steel tariff proposal: 25% - Trump reportedly planned a 25% tariff on imported steel. Aluminum tariff proposal: 10% - Trump reportedly planned a 10% tariff on imported aluminum. Job ratio in steel-dependent industries: 40 jobs in other industries per 1 steel job - Shapiro uses this ratio to argue tariffs harm broader employment. Jobs tied to beer industry: about 2 million - Anheuser-Busch warns tariffs raise costs across the beer supply chain. Bush steel tariffs impact: about 200,000 jobs lost - Shapiro cites studies on 2001–2004 steel tariffs. Cost per saved steel job: $200,000 to $2.3 million - Estimate of consumer cost to preserve one steel job under tariffs. U.S. steel share of domestic sales: 70% - Shapiro says most steel sold in the U.S. is American-made. Nucor 2016 sales: $16 billion - Example used to show U.S. steel firms were not decimated. Nucor net earnings increase: 65% - Shapiro cites year-over-year growth as evidence of health in the sector. Average salary at Nucor: $80,000 - Used to suggest steel jobs are relatively well-paid. U.S. steel production for military mobilization: about 3% - Shapiro says only a small share of U.S. steel production would be needed for full-scale military mobilization. Steel import duty already in place: 160% - He notes high existing duties on steel imports. Dow Jones decline: down 490 points - Market reaction to tariff talk on the day of the segment. Tariff-related market drop: 600 points - He says the stock market tumbled about 600 points over tariff fears before stabilizing. Kushner loan from Apollo: $184 million - New York Times report on financing tied to Kushner family business after meetings with White House figures. Kushner loan from Citigroup: $325 million - Another large loan to a Kushner-linked project after a meeting with Citi’s CEO. Hope Hicks age: 29 - Shapiro describes Hicks as a young, well-liked White House aide. Trump approval/racist poll reference: 57% of Americans think Trump is racist - Poll cited while discussing public perceptions and media framing.

Pivotal Quotes: "take the guns first, go through due process second" — Donald Trump: Trump’s remark on temporarily removing guns from people deemed dangerous. "We want free, fair, and smart trade" — Donald Trump: Trump tweet defending steel and aluminum tariffs. "As long as I’m the attorney general, I will continue to discharge my duties with integrity and honor" — Jeff Sessions: Sessions’ public response to Trump’s criticism of the DOJ/IG review decision.

Implications: Listeners are warned that Trump’s rhetoric can become policy if Congress or staff align with him. The episode frames guns, tariffs, and staffing as tests of institutional checks, while signaling that both parties’ extremism could shape 2018 and beyond.