Ep. 685 - Who Let The Mad Dog Out?

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Jim Mattis’s resignation over Trump’s abrupt Syria withdrawal and broader foreign-policy shifts toward troop pullbacks in Syria and Afghanistan. Shapiro argues the moves abandon allies, empower Russia, Turkey, and Iran, and risk ISIS’s resurgence. He also covers a stock-market drop, a looming government shutdown over border-wall funding, and ends with cultural commentary and mailbag Q&A.

Main Topics: Mattis Resigns Over Syria Withdrawal (Priority: 5/5): Mattis quits after Trump orders U.S. troops out of Syria and signals a major Afghanistan drawdown, with Shapiro framing the resignation as a principled rebuke of Trump’s foreign policy. Foreign Policy Consequences in Syria and Afghanistan (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro argues withdrawal abandons Kurdish allies, strengthens Russia and Iran, enables Turkey’s anti-Kurd campaign, and risks ISIS’s return and instability in Afghanistan/Pakistan. Trump vs. the National Security Establishment (Priority: 4/5): The episode contrasts Trump’s transactional, anti-intervention instincts with Mattis’s alliance-centered worldview and highlights internal administration tensions over NATO, Syria, and Iran. Government Shutdown and Border Wall Fight (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro discusses the shutdown standoff, backing Trump’s demand for border-wall funding while criticizing the timing and suggesting Senate procedure tactics to pressure Democrats. Stock Market Selloff and Fed Policy (Priority: 3/5): He notes a sharp market decline and blames/criticizes the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction, linking the turmoil to broader uncertainty under Trump. Holiday Culture and Media Commentary (Priority: 2/5): The episode includes ads, a critique of a Washington Post column about Merry Christmas, and an extended defense of Christmas culture and religious tolerance.

Key Arguments: Trump’s Syria pullout is strategically reckless because it abandons Kurdish partners and hands advantage to Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The Syria decision and Afghanistan drawdown are not endorsed by Trump’s key foreign-policy advisers and prompted Mattis’s resignation. ISIS is not truly defeated; withdrawal could allow it to reconstitute and create spillover risks in the region. Mattis’s resignation letter is a sharp, dignified rebuke that implicitly says Trump wants a defense secretary more aligned with his views. A border wall is politically and substantively justified; Democrats are unlikely to support meaningful border security unless forced. Republicans should use Senate rules to make Democrats publicly filibuster rather than ending the filibuster outright. The Fed’s tightening is contributing to market weakness, and the stock downturn is significant enough to raise recession concerns. Christmas and other cultural traditions should be treated with tolerance; offense at “Merry Christmas” is presented as oversensitive and unnecessary.

Data Points: U.S. troops in Afghanistan: more than 14,000 - Current troop level cited before a planned drawdown. Troops to return from Afghanistan: more than 7,000 - Planned initial reduction in the coming weeks. U.S. troops in Syria: more than 2,000 - Trump announced withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria. ISIS coalition size: 74 nations - Mattis cites the coalition as evidence of alliance strength. Active-duty U.S. troops: 1.3 million - Mattis says his responsibility was to protect the force. Shutdown-impacted departments: 9 departments - Departments expected to close under a shutdown scenario. Federal workers working without pay: about 420,000 - Estimate of employees who would keep working during shutdown. Federal workers furloughed: another 400,000 - Estimate of employees temporarily sent home. IRS staff furloughed: 52,000 - Specific shutdown impact mentioned as a positive by Shapiro. Border-wall funding request: $5 billion - Trump’s stated condition for signing funding legislation. Turkey arms purchases: about $3.5 billion - Used as an example of Trump’s transactional view of defense sales. Market drop: about 500 points - Stock market decline cited for the day. Dow level change over a month: from nearly 26,000 to below 23,000 - Shapiro emphasizes the scale of the selloff. Dow recent high: nearly 27,000 - Peak cited from Wednesday, October 3rd. Sniper distance: about 930 yards - Distance of the British Army sniper shot described in the ‘things I like’ segment. Explosive vest load: 20 kilos / 44 pounds - Amount of explosives in the suicide vest detonated by the sniper shot.

Pivotal Quotes: "Because you have a right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position." — Jim Mattis: Core line from Mattis’s resignation letter, interpreted as a pointed rebuke of Trump. "The president has refounded ISIS and was giving Russia a big win." — Brian Kilmeade: Fox host criticizing Trump’s Syria policy and warning of ISIS resurgence. "We, and I have spoken about this before, have really achieved substantial changes with regard to the militants in Syria and have beaten the forces in Syria." — Vladimir Putin (as quoted): Shapiro highlights Putin’s approval as evidence the policy benefits Russia.

Implications: Listeners are left with a warning that abrupt withdrawal decisions can reshape global power balances, endanger allies, and destabilize regions. Domestically, the wall fight and market volatility signal a volatile political and economic year ahead.