Ep. 863 - The Israel Impasse

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on Israeli coalition chaos after another inconclusive election, arguing that domestic issues—not peace talks—drive Israeli politics. It also covers U.S.-Iran tensions after Saudi oil attacks, the 2020 Democratic primary shift toward Elizabeth Warren, Corey Lewandowski’s combative House testimony, and the cultural backlash over Merriam-Webster’s updated singular “they” and Sean Spicer on Dancing with the Stars.

Main Topics: Israeli election deadlock and coalition math (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro explains why Israel’s second election in eight months produced another stalemate, focusing on Likud, Blue and White, Lieberman, and the difficult arithmetic required to form a governing coalition. Domestic policy as the real driver of Israeli politics (Priority: 5/5): He argues that Israeli elections are shaped more by economic, religious, and military-service disputes than by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that foreign policy will likely remain stable regardless of who governs. U.S.-Iran tensions after attacks on Saudi oil facilities (Priority: 4/5): The show discusses Secretary Pompeo’s Gulf trip, the likelihood of Iranian responsibility, and the probability that the Trump administration will focus on defending Saudi assets rather than launching war. 2020 Democratic primary realignment around Warren and Sanders (Priority: 4/5): Polling suggests Joe Biden remains ahead while Elizabeth Warren pulls support from Bernie Sanders. Shapiro predicts an eventual intra-progressive fight as Warren emerges as the main alternative to Biden. Corey Lewandowski’s House Judiciary hearing (Priority: 4/5): Democrats tried to use Lewandowski’s testimony to revive obstruction themes from the Mueller report, but he repeatedly disrupted the hearing, attacked the premise, and highlighted the performative nature of congressional oversight. Woke language and cultural backlash (Priority: 3/5): He criticizes Merriam-Webster’s addition of singular ‘they’ as a political distortion of grammar, using it as an example of ideology reshaping language and public discourse. Media outrage over Sean Spicer on Dancing with the Stars (Priority: 3/5): The segment treats the uproar over Spicer’s casting as an example of hyper-political overreaction to entertainment, arguing that the backlash itself is a sign of cultural over-politicization.

Key Arguments: Israeli politics is primarily about domestic concerns such as economics, religion, and military service, not mainly about peace negotiations with Palestinians. No Israeli leader—Netanyahu or Benny Gantz—is likely to make meaningful concessions to Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Palestinian Authority; foreign policy continuity is the baseline. The likeliest Israeli outcome is some form of unity or rotating government, with Avigdor Lieberman as the key swing figure. The U.S. response to Iran should focus on deterrence and Gulf defense, not a new war. Elizabeth Warren is benefiting from Bernie Sanders’ support more than Biden’s, but she will eventually face backlash and direct conflict with Sanders. Joe Biden’s age-related gaffes are not likely to materially hurt him because voters already know his persona. The best attack on Biden is identity- and race-based criticism, but Warren is poorly positioned to use that line effectively. Corey Lewandowski’s hearing demonstrates that congressional oversight has become performative political theater rather than fact-finding. The fight over singular ‘they’ reflects a broader collapse of linguistic and intellectual standards under progressive pressure. Media outrage over Sean Spicer’s TV appearance shows how everything is turned into partisan conflict, even entertainment.

Data Points: Israeli election cycles: 2 elections in about 8 months - Used to illustrate Israel’s repeated inability to form a stable coalition government. Likud/blue-white coalition size: about 55-56 seats - Shapiro describes the competing blocs as nearly even, leaving Lieberman as the decisive swing. Blue and White seats: about 32 seats - Estimated size of Benny Gantz’s party in the coalition discussion. Likud seats: about 32 or 33 seats - Estimated size of Netanyahu’s party in the coalition discussion. Arab population share in Israel: 20% - Mentioned to rebut the claim that Israel is an apartheid state, noting an Arab Muslim party as a major Knesset force. Potential unity coalition majority: 64+ seats - Shapiro says a Likud-Blue and White-Lieberman arrangement could produce a strong majority. NBC/WSJ poll: Biden 31, Warren 25, Sanders 14 - Cited as evidence that Warren is rising while Sanders falls. Morning Consult poll: Biden 32, Sanders 20, Warren 18 - One of several post-debate polls showing Biden well ahead. SurveyUSA poll: Biden 33, Warren 19, Sanders 17 - Supports the trend of Sanders slipping and Warren moving ahead of him. Economist/YouGov poll: Biden 26, Warren 21, Sanders 14 - Shows Warren closing on Biden but still behind. Biden child tax credit claim: 720 million women - Example of a verbal gaffe highlighted as odd and implausible. Sean Spicer Dancing with the Stars score: 12 out of 30 - Referenced to show the poor reception of Spicer’s performance. Merriam-Webster update: singular 'they' - Discussed as a politically driven language change.

Pivotal Quotes: "the dirty little secret of Israeli politics is that even if Benjamin Netanyahu does not end up as prime minister of Israel, there is no world in which there are bilateral negotiations with the Palestinian Authority ending with a peace deal" — Ben Shapiro: Explaining why Israeli elections are not fundamentally about peace negotiations. "the American people are also not interested in full scale isolationism because every time the United States gets isolationist we get a Pearl Harbor or a 9-11" — Ben Shapiro: Describing the U.S. foreign-policy middle ground on Iran and global engagement. "I have no obligation to be honest with the media because they're just as dishonest as anybody else" — Corey Lewandowski: Lewandowski’s combative response during the House Judiciary Committee hearing.

Implications: Expect more Israeli coalition bargaining, likely unchanged Middle East foreign policy, and a Democratic primary fight between Warren and Sanders. The transcript also signals continuing cultural fights over language, media narratives, and politicized entertainment.