Ep. 946 - The Iowa S***show

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: The episode centers on the Iowa Democratic caucuses’ breakdown: delayed/absent results, competing victory claims, and a broader critique of Democratic competence and media narratives. Shapiro argues the fiasco damaged trust in the party, scrambled candidate momentum, and especially hurt Buttigieg, Warren, and Sanders while temporarily rescuing Biden. The show also ties Iowa to impeachment, Trump’s strong approval, and a satirical segment on race-shaming liberal white women.

Main Topics: Iowa caucus meltdown (Priority: 5/5): The Democratic caucuses failed operationally, with app problems, no timely official results, and confusion over reporting procedures, turning the event into a national embarrassment. Candidate winners and losers (Priority: 5/5): Shapiro assesses how the non-result reshaped the race: Buttigieg lost the biggest potential bounce, Warren and Sanders lost momentum, and Biden avoided a disastrous early collapse. Critique of Democratic competence (Priority: 5/5): The transcript repeatedly argues that Democrats claim technocratic superiority yet cannot manage a basic caucus, using the failure as evidence of broader organizational incompetence. Media and narrative chaos (Priority: 4/5): CNN, MSNBC, Fox, and political operatives are portrayed as amplifying confusion, while candidates rushed to claim victory before results existed, making the night resemble a clown show. Impeachment and Trump’s approval (Priority: 4/5): Shapiro links the caucus mess to the ongoing impeachment trial, arguing Democrats botched impeachment too and that Trump benefited politically, including a Gallup approval high. Satire on liberal racial guilt (Priority: 3/5): A Guardian article about ‘Race to Dinner’ is used to mock affluent liberal white women paying to be called racist, framed as performative anti-racism and identity politics commodified. Rush Limbaugh health news (Priority: 3/5): The episode closes with a brief reflection on Rush Limbaugh’s advanced lung cancer diagnosis, treated as a serious personal and political loss.

Key Arguments: Democrats cannot credibly promise competent government if they cannot run a caucus or tabulate 170,000 votes in a timely manner. The Iowa failure robbed candidates of the momentum that normally follows a clear win, especially Buttigieg, who needed the biggest bounce. Biden’s weak Iowa showing, before the collapse, suggested serious vulnerability; the delay effectively gave him a reset. Sanders remained ideologically extreme and was never seriously vetted by the media despite longstanding communist/socialist positions. The caucus chaos undermines the Democratic claim that Trump is uniquely incompetent, because the party demonstrated its own dysfunction. Impeachment failed politically because it did not produce bipartisan buy-in or weaken Trump; instead, Trump’s approval rose. The liberal anti-racism industry can become performative and commercially exploitive, with affluent white progressives paying for moral absolution.

Data Points: Iowa Democratic turnout forecast: about 172,000 - Estimated turnout discussed during the night; described as low relative to expectations. Record Iowa caucus turnout: 240,000 - Highest prior turnout, cited as the 2008 benchmark. Gallup approval rating for Trump: 49% - Used to argue Trump was positioned strongly for reelection and had reached a personal high. Trump approval during 2016 election: 41% - Referenced as the approval level when Trump previously won the presidency. Iowa caucus reporting delay: no official results by midnight Eastern and still absent more than 12 hours later - Illustrates the scale of the caucus operational failure. Nate Silver estimate of Iowa delegate-equivalent impact: almost 800 delegates - Iowa described as highly influential in altering national momentum. Iowa’s historical weight in delegate terms: almost 20 times its actual numbers - Silver’s model for the state’s outsized influence. Bernie Sanders delegate-majority chance with Iowa included: 31% - Forecast from Nate Silver before the final result was known. Bernie Sanders delegate-majority chance without Iowa: 24% - Forecast showing Iowa’s modest boost absent a clear win. Bernie Sanders delegate-majority chance if he had won Iowa decisively: 58% - Counterfactual showing how much a clean victory could have changed the race. Biden delegate-majority chance without Iowa result impact: 50% - Silver’s forecast suggesting the caucus failure may have helped Biden relative to a disastrous result. Iowa turnout in 2016 precinct example: 767 people - Katie Tur cited prior caucus participation at one precinct for comparison. Expected precinct turnout in 2020 example: over 1,000 - A precinct-level expectation that was not clearly met. Actual precinct turnout in 2020 example: 849 - Used to show turnout was lower than expected in at least one precinct. Race to Dinner cost: $2,500 per dinner - Guardian example about wealthy white women paying for anti-racism discussions. Race to Dinner profit estimate: about $2,000 per dinner - Shapiro’s rough estimate after subtracting food costs. Number of Race to Dinner events: 15 dinners - Reported total number of dinners held across big U.S. cities. 1992/2012-like historical caucus context: 9 of 11 Democratic candidates who won Iowa won the nomination - Chris Matthews referenced Iowa as a strong nomination indicator historically.

Pivotal Quotes: "these highly competent, technocratic, nationalization friendly Democrats want to run everything in the world, but they cannot run a simple process where a bunch of people get together in a gym and decide which candidate they like best" — Ben Shapiro: Core critique of Democratic governance after the caucus failure. "They hung up on me." — CNN precinct captain: Wolf Blitzer segment showing the absurdity and breakdown in results reporting. "Tonight, an improbable hope became an undeniable reality" — Pete Buttigieg: Buttigieg victory speech delivered before official results, underscoring the night’s premature claims.

Implications: The Iowa disaster weakens Democratic claims of competence, distorts candidate momentum, and may aid Trump indirectly by reinforcing a chaos narrative. It also shows how media cycles and procedural failures can reshape the race more than actual votes.