Episode Summary
Executive Summary: Kurt Howe explains how Kobold Metals combines mineral exploration expertise, big data, and scientific computing to find battery materials—especially ethically sourced cobalt, nickel, and lithium—outside concentrated and labor-abusive supply chains like the DRC. The conversation covers battery chemistry, why certain metals are hard to replace, how Kobold’s software improves exploration success, and what must happen next for EV adoption and energy transition acceleration.
Main Topics: Kobold Metals’ mission and model (Priority: 5/5): Kobold is a battery metals exploration company that uses a hybrid team of veteran geologists and software/data scientists to improve the odds of discovering valuable ore deposits. It does not sell software; it uses its technology to make and monetize discoveries. Kurt Howe’s origin story and climate motivation (Priority: 5/5): Howe describes moving from physics and carbon sequestration to enhanced oil recovery and private equity in fracking, then pivoting back toward climate solutions after realizing he wanted to work directly on decarbonization rather than fossil extraction. Why cobalt, nickel, and lithium matter for batteries (Priority: 5/5): Howe argues that the chemistry of high-performance rechargeable batteries narrows the practical material set to a few key metals—especially lithium on the anode side and nickel/cobalt on the cathode side—making supply of these materials strategically important. Ethical supply chains and DRC concentration risk (Priority: 5/5): The DRC dominates global cobalt supply and reserves, and Howe frames the challenge as both an ethical issue and a supply diversification problem. Kobold aims to identify high-grade deposits in reliable jurisdictions with high labor standards. Kobold’s technology: TerraShed and Machine Prospector (Priority: 5/5): The company’s data platform aggregates messy, public and proprietary subsurface data into a structured database, then applies physics-based and machine-learning models to reduce false positives and improve drilling success rates. Barriers to EV and battery adoption (Priority: 4/5): Beyond raw materials, Howe points to affordable EV pricing, faster charging, range anxiety, and battery-performance limits as key bottlenecks. He believes a $25,000 EV and 300 kW charging would accelerate mass adoption. Policy, infrastructure, and personal advice (Priority: 3/5): Howe argues the energy transition is driven more by infrastructure and resource deployment than by pure R&D, and he advises listeners to study climate science seriously and buy an electric car.
Key Arguments: High-performance batteries rely on a small set of materials; lithium is essential, and cobalt/nickel remain highly effective cathode materials. The world needs more battery materials, but it needs them from ethical, diversified supply chains—not concentrated, abusive ones. Cobalt is not scarce in the Earth’s crust; what matters is discovering ore-grade concentrations that are economically extractable. Exploration is a data problem as much as a geology problem, so combining geoscience with software and statistical models can materially improve discovery rates. Kobold’s business is discovery and asset creation, not software licensing or mining operations. The DRC’s dominance creates both ethical risk and supply-chain fragility; alternative jurisdictions are necessary for scale. EV adoption will depend not only on minerals but also on affordability, charging speed, and battery durability under high-power charging. Large-scale infrastructure deployment, not just R&D, is what historically drove down clean-energy costs and will likely be needed again.
Data Points: Company staffing mix: About one-third mineral exploration experts; roughly two-thirds to three-quarters software/data staff - Howe describes Kobold as blending traditional exploration with Silicon Valley-style engineering Exploration experience: Over 200 years collectively - Collective mineral exploration experience on the Kobold team Cobalt in an iPhone: About 50 cents - Used to illustrate why cobalt cost matters less in phones than in EVs Cobalt supply concentration: Over two-thirds - Howe says the DRC accounts for over two-thirds of cobalt supply and reserves Cobalt grade in DRC deposits: Up to 1–2% cobalt - Examples of anomalously high cobalt grades in the Central African Copper Belt Background cobalt concentration: 20–50 parts per million - Typical cobalt concentration in Earth’s crust even under Stanford campus Ore-grade cobalt target: 20,000 parts per million - Example of the concentration needed for an economic ore deposit Gas prices in grad school era: Over $10 per gigajoule - Howe contrasts past energy economics with today Current natural gas price referenced: Less than $2 per gigajoule - Illustrates how the energy landscape has shifted Solar panel price in early career: About $12 per watt - Howe cites the historical cost of solar panels before broad cost declines EV price target: Around $25,000 - Howe says an affordable mass-market EV is needed Charging power target: 300 kilowatts - He argues fast charging at this level could help eliminate range anxiety Current charger reference: 100 kilowatts - He says current charging capability is often insufficient Global EV scale target: A billion electric vehicles - Howe says global reserves must grow to support eventual scale
Pivotal Quotes: "what the world needs is a lot more of those materials" — Kurt Howe: Howe explains why battery chemistry implies more lithium, cobalt, and nickel are needed "we are looking for cobalt in regions in excellent jurisdictions with high labor standards that can supply the world with ethical material" — Kurt Howe: He defines Kobold’s ethical sourcing mission "I think energy is first and foremost about infrastructure. Second, it's about natural resources. And third, it's about technology." — Kurt Howe: Howe’s framework for where to invest to accelerate the transition
Implications: The episode argues that climate progress depends on better mineral supply chains, smarter exploration, and infrastructure scale-up. For listeners, it suggests the transition needs both ethical sourcing and practical adoption fixes like cheaper EVs and faster charging.