Episode 51: 2017 Holiday Special

Episode Summary

Executive Summary: Acquired’s 2017 holiday episode reviews the year in the podcast, the hosts’ personal and professional updates, their 2017 prediction scorecard, and their favorite books, articles, podcasts, music, TV, movies, and apps. The conversation repeatedly returns to themes of aggregation theory, distribution power, social media’s gatekeepers, venture-market shifts, and the emerging post-mobile/device ecosystem, while also teasing a season-based format change for 2018.

Main Topics: 2017 Acquired retrospective and format change (Priority: 5/5): The hosts celebrate a successful year of 21 episodes, announce a move to six-month seasons with roughly 10 episodes, and preview mini-series as a way to explore broader themes more deeply. Personal year-in-review and founder life (Priority: 5/5): Ben and David discuss major life changes: David leaving Madrona, living in Paris and then San Francisco, and now acting as interim CEO of Taunt; Ben’s work as co-founder of Pioneer Square Labs and the focus required by startup leadership. Prediction review for 2017 (Priority: 5/5): They revisit prior predictions on aggregation theory, UBI, tech IPOs, machine learning commoditization, VR/AR, physical-goods costs, and urbanization, scoring some as accurate, some as partial, and some as uncertain. 2017 themes: aggregation, social media, and gatekeepers (Priority: 5/5): The episode emphasizes how Google/Facebook dominate distribution, how aggregation theory concentrates power, and how social media removed traditional gatekeepers while creating new technological and monetary tolls. 2018 outlook: consolidation, private networks, and device modality shifts (Priority: 4/5): They predict continued M&A and VC-market reshaping, more intimate/private communication networks, and the end of the strict 'mobile era' in favor of a multi-modality internet across phones, voice, wearables, and AR. Year-end recommendations and cultural favorites (Priority: 3/5): The hosts share their favorite books, articles, podcasts, music, films, and apps, including Shoe Dog, Wooden on Leadership, The Great AI Awakening, the Bill Simmons Jimmy Iovine interview, Odesza, Blade Runner 2049, Creed, and YouTube/HQ.

Key Arguments: Aggregation theory is increasingly central because Google and Facebook now control most consumer distribution, making user acquisition effectively a toll paid to them. The hardest challenge in consumer is distribution and in B2B is sales; both are increasingly mediated by dominant platforms. Social media dramatically reduced the power of traditional media gatekeepers, enabling people to publish on their own terms and shape their own narratives. At the same time, platform power has replaced human gatekeepers with technological gatekeepers that monetize attention and distribution. Successful investing/founding requires being correct and non-consensus, not just correct; companies like Square, Beats, Snap, and Stitch Fix exemplify this. Machine learning value has shifted from algorithm novelty to data quality, data pipelines, and access to compute/tools. The venture ecosystem is being reshaped by larger funds and new capital sources, pushing some early-stage firms later and creating room for new early-stage specialists. The mobile era may be giving way to a broader device ecosystem, where services are accessed across keyboards, touchscreens, voice, wrist, and glasses rather than through one dominant form factor. Private communication and more intimate networks may rise as users tire of public sharing and seek more comfortable, smaller social spaces. There is an emerging countertrend toward collective experiences that restore a sense of shared cultural participation. Founder life and company building are defined by extreme focus, constant reprioritization, and the inability to fully separate work from life.

Data Points: Acquired episodes recorded in 2017: 21 - Ben and David note that the holiday episode is their 22nd episode of the year. Season length: approximately 6 months - They say future seasons will be structured in roughly six-month blocks. Episodes per season: about 10 - The new format will include roughly ten episodes per season. Mini-series share of season: around 3 episodes - They expect a mini-series to take up roughly three of the ten episodes. Acquired Slack community size: over 1,000 / almost 1,100 - They mention the Slack has crossed 1,000 members and is nearing 1,100. Jenny’s PhD duration: 6.5 years - David says his wife completed her PhD after six and a half years. David’s Europe stay: a couple months - He and Jenny lived in Paris for a couple of months after her graduation. Seattle studio size: about 20 people - David describes Pioneer Square Labs as a startup studio of roughly 20 people. Esports audience: 300 million people per year - David cites the size of the esports audience when discussing Taunt. 2016 tech IPOs: 26 - They compare prior-year IPO totals in discussing 2017 IPO activity. 2017 tech IPOs: 33 - They note the number of tech IPOs increased modestly in 2017. DFW metro population rank: #4 in the United States - They cite Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington as the fourth-largest metropolitan area. Dallas-Fort Worth population: 9.5 million - Used to support the argument that Dallas is a major potential market and HQ2 candidate. Chicago population: 7.2 million - They compare Dallas-Fort Worth to Chicago in metro size. Oculus/VR consumer adoption implication: still not mainstream - They conclude VR remained a niche consumer product in 2017. Pivotal iPhone apps on home screen: 0 new apps from 2017 - Ben notes none of the 28 apps on his home screen were launched in 2017. Home screen app count: 28 - Ben says his iPhone home screen contains 28 apps, including the dock. Podcast audience size cited for HQ Trivia: 400,000 people strong - They mention HQ Trivia as an example of a collective digital experience. Bitcoin price (current at recording): about $17,000 - They discuss Bitcoin price while making 2018 predictions. Bitcoin prediction (Ben): $2,000 - Ben jokingly predicts Bitcoin could fall to $2,000 by Dec. 12, 2018. Bitcoin prediction (David): $20,000 - David predicts Bitcoin around $20,000 by Dec. 12, 2018. New Sentry claim: over 130,000 organizations - The sponsor read says Sentry is used by more than 130,000 organizations. Anthropic languages supported by Sentry: Python, Rust, and C - The sponsor read mentions Sentry usage across Anthropic’s research stack.

Pivotal Quotes: "being correct is not enough. You have to also be correct and non-consensus, not obvious." — Ben Gilbert: A core 2017 theme about why certain companies and investments become category-defining. "the removal of gatekeepers by social media broadly is finally coming to fruition." — Ben Gilbert: Discussion of social media’s long-term impact on publishing and power structures. "The only measurement that you can truly, you know, both measure and feel fulfilled by of success is whether you made the effort to become the best that you can be." — David Rosenthal: Quoting John Wooden’s definition of success during the carve-outs section.

Implications: Listeners get a map of where tech is heading: more platform concentration, more private and collective online spaces, more M&A and VC reshuffling, and a more fragmented device ecosystem. The episode also signals Acquired’s move toward deeper thematic seasons and mini-series.